🟢 OPTIMAL in my model. Quality 78/100, Opportunity 70/100.
What I see $LOG (-1,09 %) :
- Yield 5.6% (forward 5.8%)
- Payout ratio relative to cash flow of 45.9%, coverage ratio of 2.02x. The GAAP payout ratio is 95.8%, but it’s distorted by non-cash charges. The dividend is paid out of actual cash, not paper assets.
- ROE 42.5% and negative net debt. Impeccable balance sheet.
- Dividend growing at 16.5% annually over 5 years, +8.9% in 2025.
- The €20.9 million antitrust fine has been overturned.
What gives me pause:
- Reliance on tobacco, which is in structural decline.
- Tight margins (EBIT 2.9%), sensitive to transportation costs.
- Ongoing French tax audit of €13.4M.
The market is punishing the tobacco sector; I see a near-monopoly distribution network in Southern Europe that generates plenty of cash flow.
