6Mo·

UAE - Would you invest?

@Engineer687 mentioned a company in passing when posting his dividends that I have never heard of. The company in question is $EMAAR a real estate project developer from Dubai (UAE).

As a dividend investor, I am always on the lookout for exciting companies with high dividends. This data made me prick up my ears, but I have only googled the company so far and have not yet looked at it in detail:

Dividend > 8%

Withholding tax on dividends 0%

P/E RATIO = 6.3

Payout ratio approx. 50%

The share price has suffered a little from the conflict in the Gulf, so there is also a bit of a bet on geopolitics at the moment. Real estate developers are traditionally very good at marketing, but can also fail suddenly (developers in China, Signa, Gröner, etc.).

Would you invest in the company? I'm asking for a friend. 😏

I'll highlight the dividend suspects here in the forum: @Dividendenopi , @SAUgut777 , @DividendenPapa , @Raketentoni , @DividendenAlpaka , @RealMrKrabs

The company's website can be found here:

https://www.emaar.com/en/

Image generated with lovart.ai, modified in Photoshop.

24 Commentaires

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

6Mo

Hello everyone! And hello to the "friend" 😉

@Engineer687 has thrown an absolute exotic on the radar. A real estate share from Dubai with a dividend of over 8%, 0% withholding tax and a P/E ratio of 6? That doesn't sound like a solid investment on paper, it sounds like cheat code for the capital market.

But we don't let ourselves be dazzled by beautiful prospectuses and marketing brochures from the desert. "Mr. Prompt" fired up the machines, pulled up the latest live data (as at the beginning of April 2026) from Dubai and ran the share relentlessly through our AOK template.

Here's the reality check straight to your face - without sand in your eyes:

1. the fact check: are the dream figures true?
To make a long story short: Yes, they are exactly right.

Dividend: The management officially declared AED 1.00 (100 fils) per share at the Annual General Meeting at the end of March 2026. At the current share price of around AED 12.35, this is a gigantic dividend yield of approx. 8.1 %.

P/E ratio: Earnings per share have risen massively, the real P/E ratio is currently actually around 6.2.

Taxes: Dubai has no withholding tax. What is distributed ends up gross and net in Denmark (or in your settlement account before your local tax office logically strikes).

2. the "Mr. Prompt" formula check (buckle up)
We run the freshly reported 2025 annual figures through the scanner:

The Core Quality Formula (Sales Growth + Operating Margin = Score):

Sales Growth (2025): A completely absurd +40% (to AED 49.6 billion).

EBITDA margin: A whopping 51.6%. Emaar doesn't just build, they literally print money.

Result: 40 + 51.6 = Score 91.6! (Our magic threshold for "very good" is 25, which is completely off the scale).

3. the catch: Why is the share so cheap then?
If a company delivers a quality score of over 90, has a P/E ratio of 6 and pays an 8% dividend... why doesn't Warren Buffett buy the whole thing? Here's the hard-hitting truth: you're not buying a security here, you're buying a highly geopolitical and cyclical bet.

The cycle risk: Real estate developers (as you rightly point out with China and Signa) are extremely cyclical. Dubai is currently experiencing an unprecedented real estate boom (record sales of over AED 80 billion in 2025). However, the stock market is not looking in the rear-view mirror, but into the future. A P/E ratio of 6 means that the market believes we have reached the absolute peak of the cycle (peak earnings). If demand from the rich and famous falls, these profits will melt away faster than ice in the desert sun.

The geopolitical risk (The Middle East Discount): You mentioned the Gulf conflict and Iran. That is the sword of Damocles of this stock. Emaar is almost 100% dependent on the confidence of international investors in the security of Dubai. If even one stray drone flies near the Burj Khalifa (which was built by Emaar, by the way), the real estate market will freeze completely overnight. The market is pricing this permanent "war discount" into the low P/E ratio.

4 The secret safety net
What distinguishes Emaar from houses of cards such as Signa or Evergrande, however, is that they have learned from their own near-bankruptcy in the 2008 financial crisis. Today, Emaar consists of around 32% recurring income (malls such as the gigantic Dubai Mall, hotels, leisure). Even if no one buys a new villa on The Palm, the shopping malls and hotels will continue to generate massive amounts of cash. They also have a project backlog of AED 155 billion already sold for the coming years. This will buffer the next crash enormously.

Conclusion from the engine room (Would we invest?):
Emaar Properties is definitely not a "buy and hold for 30 years" widow-and-orphan stock for the left side of our stoic barbell. It's the textbook speculative cycle play for the aggressive right side.

You get a fundamentally bearish company at an absolute bargain price, but you MUST be able to mentally withstand the geopolitical risk and the bursting of the Dubai bubble. Anyone prepared to make this bet on lasting peace and prosperity in the Gulf is currently being handsomely rewarded with an 8% cash flow.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

6Mo

@Raketentoni Wow, I'm blown away by how quickly and detailed you've come up with something here. I'm really amazed. Great analysis! Thanks!!!! 👍👍👍

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

6Mo

@NichtRelevant That's exactly why I promptly wrote the Mr., that I can quickly and easily analyze stocks in the first step and if that fits, then I look for more information myself. It's just a small analysis ;) But I won't invest, it's too tricky for me

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TradingHase@TradingHase

6Mo

Interesting figures, but if I get in, the thing will fall into the bottomless pit, I'm sure of it 😂

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Frank@schlimmschlimm

6Mo

@TradingHase It's always like that for me too...laugh

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TradingHase@TradingHase

6Mo

@schlimmschlimm It reassures me that I'm not alone in this 😉

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mo

I am just as indifferent to morale as I am to the dividend. So no investment, as I don't see any major price increases.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

6Mo

@Multibagger You have a different focus in your investments. It's clear that the part is nothing for you.

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Chris@Multibagger

6Mo

@NichtRelevant That's true, but I still find it interesting to discover companies outside my circle of influence. Then I can still decide whether one or the other is for me! Thanks for the introduction anyway.

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GAE@The_Investo_tte_r

6Mo

I was invested in defense stocks, tobacco stocks, even oil stocks.

But when it comes to investing in the Emirates, even my moral compass says no.

I don't think much of it.

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Eugene H.@RealMrKrabs

6Mo

My dear scholli! What's fluttering across my desk here 🤨

As already mentioned, you are buying a high cycle risk and price fluctuations with the Dubai market. Do I care if the cash flow is right? DEFINITELY!
Would I get in with a position? After checking the business and the prospects, I think: Yes!
Am I a merciless capitalist who wants to live off his cash flow in 10 years and therefore has no morals at all: maybe😉

I currently still have around 20,000 cash dry at TR. Would possibly go in with a first tranche of €1500 and then see.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

6Mo

@RealMrKrabs That's a clear statement. 😅

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Eugene H.@RealMrKrabs

6Mo

@NichtRelevant I should mention that I am currently trying to move away from the USA in terms of individual stocks. I'm currently buying more Asia and Europe - so your suggestion came at just the right time.

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SpongeBob@SquarePants

6Mo

@RealMrKrabs hello Mr krabs

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GHF@GHF

6Mo

In my opinion, the Middle East will continue to seethe for a long time to come. But all the millionaires in Dubai don't want any uncertainty. I am therefore very skeptical as to whether the business model will continue to flourish in the coming years.
Interesting company, but only once the issue with Iran has been resolved.

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TD@Routine123

6Mo

@GHF totaly agree. Was looking at stock two weeks ago and decided not to get in, because the longer the war is, the more unrepairable damage is. They were safe haven so far due to safety and predictability, however all that has been shattered in past few weeks. On the other side of coin they are being linked and desperate to USA in every sense including protection. These days anything related to US means huge uncertainty, so they are in sandwich, bleeding from both sides.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

6Mo

@NichtRelevant Exciting share. I can absolutely understand why $EMAAR is currently attracting interest 👍 The dividend yield looks very attractive at first glance, especially in combination with a seemingly moderate payout ratio.

For me personally, however, it would not be an investment. There are several reasons for this.

Firstly, the business model as a real estate developer is highly cyclical. Cash flows and profits are largely dependent on the real estate market, which can turn relatively quickly (especially in regions such as Dubai). In my view, this also makes the dividend less predictable, which is an important point for my strategy.

On the other hand, the geopolitical risks also play a role for me. Although the region offers opportunities, it also brings with it uncertainties, which I deliberately want to keep to a minimum in my portfolio.

In my view, the share is more of a tactical investment or cycle play, but not a classic long-term dividend compounder, which is what I am looking for in my portfolio.

What are your thoughts on the company? Would it be an investment for you, especially in the current tense situation in the Middle East?

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

6Mo

@DividendenPapa To be honest, I'm not really sure myself yet.

Pro:
- really very nice figures, even if it's just a snapshot
- an industry that I can grasp thematically
- I'm not represented in the region at all at the moment
- I think the share price will return to where it was before the Iran conflict within a year
- the company is not a newcomer, it has been around for a while. I think that's good for now.

Contra:
- Risk of a prolonged conflict in the Persian Gulf.
- Risk of lasting damage to the Dubai location if attacks on the UAE continue and if there is major damage or danger to the population there
- I already have an extremely high real estate weighting due to my own properties in Germany.
- I don't want to increase the number of individual stocks in my portfolio too much so as not to lose focus.

Conclusion: I don't know yet. I might buy a small, manageable position. It depends on whether I sell some of my individual stocks after Easter and streamline the portfolio a bit.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

6Mo

@NichtRelevant Thank you for your detailed explanation. I find it absolutely comprehensible 👍

I actually see it similarly. In the short term, there is definitely potential for the price of $EMAAR to recover if the geopolitical situation calms down and the conflict does not escalate further. But that is also the crucial point for me. You are not only investing in the company itself, but also very heavily in the geopolitical development of the region.

Markets like Dubai in particular are heavily dependent on international capital and wealthy investors. If uncertainty arises here and capital acts more cautiously or is even withdrawn, this can have a relatively rapid impact on the real estate market and therefore also on $EMAAR.

If you do invest, I wish you every success and hopefully a decent return!

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Fabian F.@Fabianfeuer

6Mo

Didn't the real estate market in Dubai crash by 30%?

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

6Mo

@Fabianfeuer I can say quite a lot about the real estate market in Germany, but I know little or nothing about real estate in Dubai.

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SpongeBob@SquarePants

6Mo

Of course not!

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Benaiplay@Benaiplay

2Sem.

Does anyone know what the current state of the real estate market in Dubai is? That’s definitely a conflict that’s here to stay.

There isn’t really much information about it online, and unfortunately, I don’t have any contacts in Dubai.

I thought the stock was interesting even six months ago.

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NichtRelevant@NichtRelevant

2Sem.

@Benaiplay To be honest, I don't know, and the stock isn't readily available for purchase either. My assessment is that investors are currently rather cautious.

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