Hello my dears,

Over the last few weeks, commodities have been the subject of increasing discussion due to the blockade by China. Gold, silver and copper prices are exploding.

Copper and silver are essential for production. And due to the high demand in the defense sector, critical raw materials.

But of course it's also about the battle for the best AI, robotics and much more.

But somehow I hardly hear anything about titanium, and that's why I'd like to tell you a little more about it today.

Why Japanese values:

• Better comparability because same currency and I didn't feel like converting to $.
• but Japan is more important to me because of the volatile and unpredictable captain 🍊 (nationalization etc.)
• The new Japanese head of government has announced her intention to become independent of China (which is why I added a mine)
• In Japan, the technologies that require titanium are

My dears, is this sector exciting for you, and which company would be your first choice?

⚠️ Is there currently a shortage of titanium?

In short: Yes, the situation is tenseand several sources confirm a global shortage.

🔍 Reasons for the titanium shortage

• GeopoliticsRussia supplies almost a third of the titanium bars and rods used in the USA. The Ukraine war and sanctions have massively disrupted supply chains.
• Dependence on Russia & ChinaThe two countries dominate large parts of the value chain. This increases the risk for Western industries.
• Rising demand: Aviation and defense in particular are picking up strongly.
• Shortages of high-quality ores: Especially rutilea high-purity titanium oxide mineral, is in short supply.
• Supply chain problemsTransport, processing and recycling are lagging behind.

📉 Effects

• Price increase for titanium metal and TiO₂.
• Aerospace manufacturers must look for alternative suppliers or recycle more.
• Delays in production and maintenance.
• Higher costs for defense and industrial goods.

🧭 Conclusion

Titanium is now a strategic bottleneck raw material. The combination of geopolitical risks, increasing demand and limited alternatives is leading to a ongoing shortagewhich particularly affects the aerospace and defense sectors.

🧩 What role does titanium currently play?

Today, titanium is a critical material for several key industries:

• AerospaceAerospace : Around 50 % of global titanium production flows into this sector. Titanium is light, extremely strong and corrosion-resistant - ideal for engines, structural components and landing gear.
• Defense industryRising defense budgets are increasing the demand for titanium alloys.
• Automotive & IndustryHigh-performance components, chemical plants, offshore applications.
• MedicalImplants, prostheses.
• Pigments: Titanium oxide (TiO₂) is a billion-dollar market (USD 24 billion in 2024).

Many countries (USA, EU, Japan, Australia, Canada) now classify titanium as a critical raw material raw material.

Regional centers of power

• China:
• Largest producer of titanium sponge and semi-finished products.
• Strong position in TiO₂ and downstream applications.
• Russia:
• Historically key supplier of aerospace titanium (e.g. VSMPO-Avisma).
• Strongly politicized after 2022; Western OEMs are trying to diversify.
• USA / Europe / Japan:
• Focus on high-end alloys, aerospace grade, recycling.
• Asia-Pacific in general:
• Largest region in the titanium market by volume and value.

Current and medium-term development

• Overall titanium market (metal/sponge):
• Value: approx. USD 8.9 billion in 2025forecast USD 12.4 billion by 2035 → CAGR approx. 3,4 %.
• Total titanium market (incl. pigments etc.):
• Estimates: USD 28.2 billion 2025growth to just under 38 billion USD 2030, CAGR ~6 %.
• Aerospace titanium:
• Special submarket: from 1.8 billion USD (2025) to USD 2.9 billion (2035)CAGR 5,3 %.

Titanium is mainly produced from ilmenite (FeTiO3) and rutile (TiO2) is extracted.

The manufacturing process involves several steps:

• Procurement of raw materialsTitanium ores are extracted from the earth, often by open-cast mining.
• Raw material preparationThe titanium mineral is chemically treated to extract titanium oxide.
• ReductionThe titanium chloride is reduced with magnesium in a vacuum to obtain pure titanium.
• Reinigung: Das gewonnene Titan wird gereinigt und in die gewünschte Form gebracht.
• Der Kroll-Prozess ist ein bedeutendes Verfahren, das seit den 1940er Jahren industriell eingesetzt wird

Toho Titanium - $5727

Overview of

Toho Titanium Co., Ltd. is one of Japan's leading manufacturers of titanium products and has been a central part of the global titanium value chain for decades. The company is highly specialized in technology and supplies some of the world's most demanding industries.

Core products

• Titanium sponge Basic raw material for the production of titanium alloys, especially for aerospace applications.
• Titanium blocks & ingots Further processed forms for industrial applications.
• Titanium powder Used in additive manufacturing (3D printing), special alloys and high-performance components.
• Processed titanium products Semi-finished products and components for industry, chemicals, energy and aerospace.
• Catalysts for propylene polymerization Important materials for plastics production.
• Titanium dioxide (TiO₂) For pigments, electronics, specialty chemicals and other industrial applications.

Industry focus

Toho Titanium is particularly strong in areas where the highest material quality and reliability are crucial:

1. Aerospace

• Supplier to manufacturers in the USA, Europe and the Indo-Pacific region
• Supplies titanium sponge and alloy precursors for engines, structural components and high temperature components
• Decades of experience with strict quality standards (e.g. aerospace grade)

2. industry & energy

• Chemical plants
• Seawater desalination
• Power generation
• Highly corrosive environments

3. High-tech & specialty chemicals

• Catalysts
• Titanium dioxide for electronics and special applications

Strategic importance

Toho Titanium is a critical part of the global titanium supply chainespecially for:

• Western aerospace programs
• Diversification of titanium supply outside China and Russia
• High-end industrial applications that rely on Japanese quality standards

The company thus plays a geopolitically relevant role, especially in times when supply chain stability and material security are increasingly considered strategic.

OSAKA Titanium Technologies
$5726 (-3,8 %)

Overview of

OSAKA Titanium Technologies Co., Ltd. is one of Japan's leading manufacturers of titanium and titanium alloy products. The company has a broad technological base and covers the entire value chain - from titanium sponge to highly specialized powders for future technologies.

Product and value-added portfolio

• Titanium sponge High-purity raw material for aerospace alloys and industrial applications.
• Rolled products & semi-finished products Sheets, plates, wires and other processed forms of titanium.
• Titanium alloys For high-temperature and high-performance applications.
• Special powders For additive manufacturing, electronics, semiconductors and high-tech components.

Target industries

OSAKA Titanium is particularly strong in demanding segments where material quality and process stability are crucial:

1. aerospace

• Focus on aerospace grade-materials
• Titanium alloys for structural components, engine components and high-temperature environments
• Growing demand due to global fleet modernization

2. chemistry & energy

• Titanium for corrosive environments
• Use in seawater desalination, chemical reactors and energy plants

3. semiconductor & electronics industry

• High-purity titanium materials for thin-film processes
• Powder and specialty products for high-end electronics
• Particularly important strategically, as Japan is the quality leader here

Strategic orientation

OSAKA Titanium pursues a clear premium strategy:

• Focus on high-margin segments
• Aerospace grades
• Heat-resistant alloys
• High-purity materials for semiconductors
• Investments in efficiency & automation
• Process automation to reduce costs
• Quality control at the highest level
• Competitiveness against global suppliers
• USA (ATI, Timet)
• Europe (VSMPO-Avisma restricted by geopolitical situation)
• China (rapidly growing titanium sector, but lower quality standards in the high-end segment)

Strategic importance in a global context

OSAKA Titanium is a central building block for:

• the diversification of the global titanium supply,
• the stability of western aviation supply chains,
• the safeguarding Japanese high-tech industries,
• the reducing dependence on Chinese and Russian sources of titanium.

This makes the company not only industrially but also geopolitically relevant.

Sumitomo Metal Mining $5713 (-6,6 %)

Overview of the company

Sumitomo Metal Mining Co, Ltd (SMM) is one of Japan's most important raw materials and materials groups. The company is vertically integrated: from exploration and mining to metal processing and high-tech materials for future industries. This breadth makes SMM a strategically important player for electronics, energy and electromobility.

Business segments

1. non-ferrous metals

Core area with a focus on the development, production and sale of:

• Copper
• nickel
• gold

Areas of application: Electronics, automotive engineering, construction industry, energy infrastructure. Nickel and copper are also essential for batteries, printed circuit boards and high-performance components.

2. mineral resources (mining & raw materials extraction)

SMM operates its own mines and extraction facilities, making it one of the few Japanese groups with genuine upstream expertise.

Activities:

• Exploration of new deposits
• Mining of ores
• Processing into metallurgical primary products

This vertical integration ensures security of supply and cost control - a decisive advantage in volatile raw materials markets.

3. materials (advanced materials)

The strategically most important growth area.

Products:

• Semiconductor materials (e.g. high-purity metals and chemicals for wafer and chip production)
• Battery materials especially for electric vehicles (EVs)

These materials are essential for

• modern semiconductor manufacturing
• lithium-ion batteries
• Energy storage solutions

3. materials (advanced materials)

The strategically most important growth area.

Products:

• Semiconductor materials (e.g. high-purity metals and chemicals for wafer and chip production)
• Battery materials especially for electric vehicles (EVs)

These materials are essential for

• modern semiconductor manufacturing
• lithium-ion batteries
• energy storage solutions

Brief summary

Sumitomo Metal Mining is a broad-based commodities and materials group with major significance for semiconductors, electromobility and metal markets. Operationally highly diversified, but financially cyclical and volatile.

Relationship between Sumitomo Metal Mining and titanium

1. not a direct titanium producer

Sumitomo Metal Mining does not no titanium metalno titanium alloys and also titanium sponge sponge. This clearly distinguishes SMM from:

• Toho Titanium
• OSAKA Titanium Technologies

These two are pure titanium specialists. SMM, on the other hand, is a broadly diversified commodities and materials group.

2. indirect connection via high-tech materials

SMM is strongly active in areas that require titanium as a materiale.g:

Semiconductor industry

• Titanium is used in semiconductor production for barrier layers, sputtering targets and special alloys, among other things.
• SMM supplies high-purity metals and chemicals for wafer processes.
• Titanium is part of the supply chain, but not the productthat SMM manufactures itself.

Battery and electronic materials

• Titanium oxides and titanium compounds play a role in certain cathode and anode materials.
• SMM produces materials that are used in the same industries, but not the titanium components themselves. not the titanium components themselves.

3. common denominator: critical materials for high-tech

All three companies - Toho, Osaka and SMM - serve industries that require extremely high material purity and reliability:

• Aerospace
• semiconductors
• energy
• Electromobility

Titanium is a critical material in these industries - SMM supplies other critical materials.

There is therefore a strategic proximitybut no direct product overlap.

4 Geopolitical context

Japan positions itself as a reliable supplier of:

• Titanium (Toho, Osaka)
• Nickel, copper, gold, semiconductor materials (SMM)

Together these companies form a Japanese high-tech materials ecosystemthat stabilizes Western supply chains and reduces dependencies on China/Russia.

Summary

Sumitomo Metal Mining is not directly related to titaniumbut a strategic proximitybecause

• the same industries are supplied,
• titanium is a critical material in these industries,
• Japan has a broad range of materials expertise.

3. why you can still consider these three companies together in a meaningful way

Together they form a Japanese high-tech materials triangle:

→ Toho & Osaka = titanium specialists
→ SMM = high-tech raw material giant without titanium, but with overlap in the end markets

4. short conclusion

The connection between Sumitomo Metal Mining and titanium is not about the product, but about the industries.

• Toho & Osaka supply titanium for aviation, semiconductors, industry.
• SMM supplies other critical materials for the same industries.
• Together they strengthen Japan's role as a reliable high-tech materials supplier for the West.

JPY

Estimates

Turnover 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 84,267 88,400 93,533

Change -5.29 % 4.91 % 5.81 %

Osaka Titanium 50,950 54,950 62,300

Change -1.86 % 7.85 % 13.38 %🚀

Sumitomo Mining 1,653,114 1,776,865 1,773,898

Change 3.75 % 7.49 % -0.17 %

EBIT 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 4,500 6,233 7,900

Change -23.47 % 19.05 % 17 %

Osaka Titanium 5,500 6,700 9,500

Change -45.48 % 21.82 % 41.79 %🚀

Sumitomo Mining 137,558 124,065 120,937

Change 397.37 % -12.85 % 9.92 %

Net result 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 2,700 4,033 5,233

Change -27.54 % 49.38 % 29.75 %

Osaka Titanium 2,900 4,600 6,500

Change -59.1 % 58.62 % 41.3 % 🚀

Sumitomo Mining 114,799 146,597 147,599

Change 596.3 % 27.7 % 0.68 %

Net debt 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium

Osaka Titanium

Sumitomo Mining 365,250 486,290 529,603

Free cash flow 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 8,350 550 1,850

Osaka Titanium 9,200 -4,400 -18,400

Sumitomo Mining 74,325 28,350 85,900

EBIT margin 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 5.34 % 7.05 % 8.45 %

Osaka Titanium 10.79 % 12.19 % 15.25 %🚀

Sumitomo Mining 8.32 % 6.98 % 6.82 %

ROE 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 4.8 % 6.7 % 8.05 %

Osaka Titanium 6 % 10.9 % 14.3 % 🚀

Sumitomo Mining 5.38 % 6.99 % 6.87 %

Earnings per share 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 38.07 56.5 73.7

Change -23.3 % 48.42 % 30.44 %

Osaka Titanium 79.45 124.8 177

Change -58.77 % 57.14 % 41.77 %🚀

Sumitomo Mining 420.3 540.4 509.6

Change in

Dividend/yield 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 18 20.67 25.33

Yield 0.95 % 1.09 % 1.34 %

Osaka Titanium 18.5 34 49

Yield 0.69 % 1.27 % 1.82 % 🚀

Sumitomo Mining 183 162.5 163.3

Yield 1.83 % 1.62 % 1.63 %

P/E RATIO/PEG 2026 2027 2028

Toho Titanium 49.8x 33.5x 25.7x

PEG -1.8x 0.7x 0.8x

Osaka Titanium 33.8x 21.5x 15.2x

PEG -0.6x 0.4x 0.4x 🚀

Sumitomo Mining 23.8x 18.5x 19.6x

PEG 0x 0.6x -3.44x

Market value Number of shares (in Ths)

Toho Titanium 134,898 71,186

Osaka Titanium 98,841 36,798

Sumitomo Mining 2,708,218 270,551

@Multibagger