2J·

𝐁𝐀𝐒𝐅: 𝐒𝐭𝐚𝐫𝐤𝐞𝐬 𝐐𝟐, 𝐄𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐛𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐚𝐮𝐬𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤 𝐟𝐮̈𝐫 𝟐𝟎𝟐𝟔 𝐚𝐧𝐠𝐞𝐡𝐨𝐛𝐞𝐧

$BAS (+0,55 %)

📊 𝐄𝐫𝐠𝐞𝐛𝐧𝐢𝐬𝐬𝐞

• Revenue: €17.2B (+16%, consensus: €16.5B)

• EBITDA before special items: €2.4B (consensus: €2.1B, prior year: €1.6B)

• EBIT before special items: €1.5B (consensus: €1.1B, prior year: €0.7B)

• Net income: €4.1B (consensus: €2.4B, prior year: €79M)

• Free cash flow: -€0.2B (vs. +€0.5B)

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🎯 𝐀𝐮𝐬𝐛𝐥𝐢𝐜𝐤

• EBITDA before special items now expected to be €6.9B–€7.7B (previously: €6.2B–€7.0B)

• Free cash flow still expected to be €1.5B–€2.3B

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📌 Key Points

• Earnings significantly exceed analyst consensus

• Higher prices and sales volumes drive revenue growth

• Gain on disposal from the Coatings transaction contributes significantly to consolidated earnings

• Free cash flow impacted by higher capital tied up due to increased raw material prices

7 Commentaires

Moritz@MoKi28

Whenever BASF beats the analyst consensus, its stock price drops sharply :D

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@MoKi28 I think we need to take a more nuanced view of this report. The upward revision to the forecast is only one side of the coin. At the same time, $BAS has also clearly pointed out that the second half of the year is likely to be more challenging. Among other factors, the company cites the weak global economy, the persistently difficult situation in regional chemical markets, and geopolitical uncertainties—particularly in connection with developments in the Middle East and the ongoing negotiations between the U.S. and Iran.

I suspect that the market is currently pricing in this more cautious outlook above all, rather than the mere upward revision of the forecast.

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Moritz@MoKi28

Yeah, I think so too. I also believe that market expectations often differ from the analyst consensus. For example, the stock sometimes rose sharply even when BASF's results were below the consensus. I wouldn't put too much stock in the analysts' reports anyway.

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@MoKi28 I can certainly understand that point. Analyst consensus and stock price performance don’t necessarily have to move in the same direction in the short term.

However, I believe there are two key things to keep in mind regarding $BAS. First, you’re investing in a cyclical stock whose business is heavily dependent on economic conditions. Second, $BAS is currently in the midst of a transformation. Such phases are often accompanied by increased uncertainty and correspondingly higher volatility.

In my view, anyone investing in $BAS should therefore factor in short-term price fluctuations and be able to weather them. For me, what matters most is not so much how the stock reacts in the coming weeks, but whether management consistently implements the chosen course and whether operational performance improves over the long term.

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Moritz@MoKi28

@DividendenPapa Definitely. What's your take on the current developments? Do you think management is capable of leading the transformation?

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DividendenPapa@DividendenPapa

@MoKi28 Yes, I fundamentally believe management is capable of carrying out the transformation. For me, the bigger question is not so much whether it will happen, but how long it will take.

In my view, $BAS is currently doing a lot of things right. The company is streamlining its structures, cutting costs, divesting non-core businesses, and at the same time continuing to expand its capacity in growth markets such as Asia. Of course, there are also factors that $BAS itself can hardly influence—such as the global economy, wage trends, energy prices, or the general state of the chemical industry.

The bottom line for me, however, is that the factors management can actively influence outweigh the others, and that’s exactly where I see the company heading in the right direction right now. That’s why I’m staying invested and using the current valuation to gradually expand my position through my savings plan. In my view, patience will be a key factor here. But please note that this is, of course, only my personal opinion/assessment and not a recommendation to take action. I think that goes without saying 🙂

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Moritz@MoKi28

That aligns with my assessment. I believe the cost-cutting measures will gradually start to pay off over the next 1–2 years. At the same time, many investments are currently being scaled back, ensuring cash flow for the next few years. Then, when the economy slowly picks up again (hopefully), the company will be in a pretty good position. My personal assessment is that we’ll start to see a noticeable upturn again in 2–3 years. However, I’m only invested through employee stock options, since BASF offers attractive options for employees.

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