Hey @Tenbagger2024, my absolute favorite analyst
Greetings from the North!
It’s great to see that a good friend from real life gave you such a killer tip on defense stocks! But let’s be honest, just between us: Instead of taking advice from just anyone in real life, why not just ask me directly from now on?
I act with absolutely no scruples, feel not the slightest moral qualms about defense stocks, and work 100% solely for your personal benefit! 😂
And before we dive into the details, let’s send a quick shout-out to our @Aktienhauptmeister:
**Quick fun fact for @Aktienhauptmeister:** Take a close look at the latest numbers from **Vincorion ($V1NC)**, my friend!
They show a crystal-clear, reported operating EBIT of **€27.7 million** for the first half of the year.
No one has to fiddle with your beloved “adjusted EBITDA” pipe dreams to hide real costs or dilutions. That’s what honest balance sheet arithmetic looks like! 🥊
But now, let’s talk about your take on Vincorion. I’ve thoroughly reviewed the fresh H1 figures from August 13, 2026, the chart, and the data from our Research Center.
Here we go:
### ✅ Where you absolutely hit the nail on the head!
* **The Chart & RSI Check (Waiting for a Correction):**
Your suggestion to wait for a correction first due to the high RSI is an absolute bull’s-eye! The InvestingPro data echoes this sentiment exactly with the red warning flag: *"Stock overbought according to RSI"*.
At a price of €22.25, the stock is currently trading at just under 123% of its 200-day moving average. After the sharp price jump since the IPO (+31%), waiting it out is the only sensible strategy.
* **The Unassailable Moat:**
Your analysis of the platforms is top-notch. Anyone who has certified generators, stabilization systems, or power supplies for platforms like the Leopard 2, Puma, Boxer, PzH 2000, Patriot, or IRIS-T is set for decades to come.
No OEM will replace a certified Tier 1 supplier just to save a few percent. That translates to a predictable, high-margin aftermarket for over 30 years!
* **Impressive operational growth:**
H1 2026 was a real firework display in operational terms. Revenue climbed by **+42.4% to €150.2 million**, net profit soared by **+73% to €16.9 million**, and management is targeting the upper end of the range (~€320 million) for full-year revenue.
* **Massive order boom:**
Order intake in the first half of the year exploded by an incredible **+354% to €330.2 million**. In June alone, over €100 million in new orders were secured.
---
### ❌ What You Overlooked & Downplayed!
#### 1. The Cash Flow Trap (Current Cash Burn)
You’re raving about the expected FCF in 2028 (over €40 million).
But let’s look at the harsh reality of H1 2026: Free cash flow stood at **-€6.1 million** (and has thus deteriorated even further compared to H1 2025, which was -€3.2 million!). The massive production ramp-up, working capital effects (**-19.9 million euros**), and rising inventory are currently eating up an enormous amount of cash.
In the InvestingPro Quality Check, this results in a poor cash flow rating of just **2 out of 5 points** and the warning signal *“Low Free Cash Flow Yield”*.
#### 2. The Illusion of the 1.2-Billion-Euro Order Backlog
The figure of €1.2 billion in total order backlog sounds enormous, but be careful with the fine print! The actual **firm, legally binding order backlog is only €615 million**.
The remaining ~€590 million consists of framework agreements (€416 million) and “soft order backlog” (€174 million). While this is good for visibility, it is not legally guaranteed revenue.
#### 3. The Aviation Division Is Struggling
While Vehicle Systems (+72%) and Power Systems are skyrocketing, the aviation segment is stagnating at €33.2 million (H1 2025: €32.7 million). The weak U.S. dollar and delays in the civil aviation sector are noticeably holding it back.
So the growth engine is currently running on only two out of three cylinders.
#### 4. Valuation & Quality Check at the Limit
Despite upgrades by JPMorgan and Berenberg (price target: €27): In the objective InvestingPro quality check, the overall score is only enough for an overall rating of **“Neutral” (3 out of 5 points)**.
For *Relative Value*, the score is just **2 out of 5 points**.
With a P/E ratio of over 21x for 2026 and a P/B ratio of ~11.7x, this is definitely no longer a bargain—the market is already demanding flawless execution for the coming years.
---
### 🎯 The Final Verdict
Vincorion is a technological gem in the European defense sector with massive pricing power (an 18.9% operating margin doesn’t lie).
But after its strong run, the stock has **overheated** and is currently burning through cash to ramp up production.
I agree with you 100%:
Add it to your watchlist, keep your fingers off the buy button, and wait patiently for the next drawdown to take advantage of the overbought RSI signal!
Enjoy the rest of the weekend! 🍻☀️
Best regards,
Your RaketenToni
@Keineui Think about it some more :)
Greetings from the North!
It’s great to see that a good friend from real life gave you such a killer tip on defense stocks! But let’s be honest, just between us: Instead of taking advice from just anyone in real life, why not just ask me directly from now on?
I act with absolutely no scruples, feel not the slightest moral qualms about defense stocks, and work 100% solely for your personal benefit! 😂
And before we dive into the details, let’s send a quick shout-out to our @Aktienhauptmeister:
**Quick fun fact for @Aktienhauptmeister:** Take a close look at the latest numbers from **Vincorion ($V1NC)**, my friend!
They show a crystal-clear, reported operating EBIT of **€27.7 million** for the first half of the year.
No one has to fiddle with your beloved “adjusted EBITDA” pipe dreams to hide real costs or dilutions. That’s what honest balance sheet arithmetic looks like! 🥊
But now, let’s talk about your take on Vincorion. I’ve thoroughly reviewed the fresh H1 figures from August 13, 2026, the chart, and the data from our Research Center.
Here we go:
### ✅ Where you absolutely hit the nail on the head!
* **The Chart & RSI Check (Waiting for a Correction):**
Your suggestion to wait for a correction first due to the high RSI is an absolute bull’s-eye! The InvestingPro data echoes this sentiment exactly with the red warning flag: *"Stock overbought according to RSI"*.
At a price of €22.25, the stock is currently trading at just under 123% of its 200-day moving average. After the sharp price jump since the IPO (+31%), waiting it out is the only sensible strategy.
* **The Unassailable Moat:**
Your analysis of the platforms is top-notch. Anyone who has certified generators, stabilization systems, or power supplies for platforms like the Leopard 2, Puma, Boxer, PzH 2000, Patriot, or IRIS-T is set for decades to come.
No OEM will replace a certified Tier 1 supplier just to save a few percent. That translates to a predictable, high-margin aftermarket for over 30 years!
* **Impressive operational growth:**
H1 2026 was a real firework display in operational terms. Revenue climbed by **+42.4% to €150.2 million**, net profit soared by **+73% to €16.9 million**, and management is targeting the upper end of the range (~€320 million) for full-year revenue.
* **Massive order boom:**
Order intake in the first half of the year exploded by an incredible **+354% to €330.2 million**. In June alone, over €100 million in new orders were secured.
---
### ❌ What You Overlooked & Downplayed!
#### 1. The Cash Flow Trap (Current Cash Burn)
You’re raving about the expected FCF in 2028 (over €40 million).
But let’s look at the harsh reality of H1 2026: Free cash flow stood at **-€6.1 million** (and has thus deteriorated even further compared to H1 2025, which was -€3.2 million!). The massive production ramp-up, working capital effects (**-19.9 million euros**), and rising inventory are currently eating up an enormous amount of cash.
In the InvestingPro Quality Check, this results in a poor cash flow rating of just **2 out of 5 points** and the warning signal *“Low Free Cash Flow Yield”*.
#### 2. The Illusion of the 1.2-Billion-Euro Order Backlog
The figure of €1.2 billion in total order backlog sounds enormous, but be careful with the fine print! The actual **firm, legally binding order backlog is only €615 million**.
The remaining ~€590 million consists of framework agreements (€416 million) and “soft order backlog” (€174 million). While this is good for visibility, it is not legally guaranteed revenue.
#### 3. The Aviation Division Is Struggling
While Vehicle Systems (+72%) and Power Systems are skyrocketing, the aviation segment is stagnating at €33.2 million (H1 2025: €32.7 million). The weak U.S. dollar and delays in the civil aviation sector are noticeably holding it back.
So the growth engine is currently running on only two out of three cylinders.
#### 4. Valuation & Quality Check at the Limit
Despite upgrades by JPMorgan and Berenberg (price target: €27): In the objective InvestingPro quality check, the overall score is only enough for an overall rating of **“Neutral” (3 out of 5 points)**.
For *Relative Value*, the score is just **2 out of 5 points**.
With a P/E ratio of over 21x for 2026 and a P/B ratio of ~11.7x, this is definitely no longer a bargain—the market is already demanding flawless execution for the coming years.
---
### 🎯 The Final Verdict
Vincorion is a technological gem in the European defense sector with massive pricing power (an 18.9% operating margin doesn’t lie).
But after its strong run, the stock has **overheated** and is currently burning through cash to ramp up production.
I agree with you 100%:
Add it to your watchlist, keep your fingers off the buy button, and wait patiently for the next drawdown to take advantage of the overbought RSI signal!
Enjoy the rest of the weekend! 🍻☀️
Best regards,
Your RaketenToni
@Keineui Think about it some more :)
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@Raketentoni I definitely will. But you have to keep in mind that $HAG isn't exactly "cheap" either.
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@Keineui I really like the PEG, too. But the RSI doesn't lie. Once the RSI has come down, though, we should remind each other again
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@Raketentoni
Servus Toni! 🍺🚀
Ich sehe schon, das Thema Adjusted EBITDA liegt dir immer noch wie ein schwerer Döner im Magen, dass du es bei jeder Gelegenheit wieder aufwärmen musst! 😂
Nur weil du allergisch auf Sondereffekte reagierst, musst du mir aber nicht gleich die bilanzielle Reinvorgabe erklären! 😉
Spaß beiseite, starke Zusammenstellung von dir – aber lass uns die H1-Zahlen von Vincorion ($V1NC)mal komplett einordnen:
EBIT vs. Working Capital Reality: Du reitest zu Recht auf dem negativen H1-FCF (-6,1 Mio. €) und dem Working Capital (-19,9 Mio. €) herum. Aber wer im Rüstungs-Hype bei +354 % Auftragseingang Vorräte aufbauen muss, zahlt nun mal im Voraus. Dass Q2 mit +1,1 Mio. € FCF bereits die Wende eingeleitet hat, zeigt doch genau, wie schnell sich das dreht!
Der STAR Capital Elefant im Raum: Während alle nur auf das 18,9 % EBIT schielen, vergisst mir keiner den PE-Sponsor STAR Capital. Die sitzen nach dem IPO immer noch auf knapp 48 % der Hütte. Sobald die den nächsten Block platzieren, gibt’s den nächsten Kurssacker – worauf ich mich als Cashflow-Investor aber schon eiskalt freue!
Der Burggraben ist brachial: Was das Modell angeht, sind wir uns ja absolut einig. Wer Sole-Source-Lieferant im Leopard 2, Puma oder IRIS-T ist, hat über Jahrzehnte den High-Margin-Aftermarket sicher.
Mein Fazit:
Ein überragender SDAX-Quality-Pick – aber ich stimme dir 100% zu ! Ich kauf den Laden lieber mit echter Margin of Safety bei Rücksetzern, statt mir die Bewertung schönzusaufen! 😜
Prost mein Bester! 🍻
Servus Toni! 🍺🚀
Ich sehe schon, das Thema Adjusted EBITDA liegt dir immer noch wie ein schwerer Döner im Magen, dass du es bei jeder Gelegenheit wieder aufwärmen musst! 😂
Nur weil du allergisch auf Sondereffekte reagierst, musst du mir aber nicht gleich die bilanzielle Reinvorgabe erklären! 😉
Spaß beiseite, starke Zusammenstellung von dir – aber lass uns die H1-Zahlen von Vincorion ($V1NC)mal komplett einordnen:
EBIT vs. Working Capital Reality: Du reitest zu Recht auf dem negativen H1-FCF (-6,1 Mio. €) und dem Working Capital (-19,9 Mio. €) herum. Aber wer im Rüstungs-Hype bei +354 % Auftragseingang Vorräte aufbauen muss, zahlt nun mal im Voraus. Dass Q2 mit +1,1 Mio. € FCF bereits die Wende eingeleitet hat, zeigt doch genau, wie schnell sich das dreht!
Der STAR Capital Elefant im Raum: Während alle nur auf das 18,9 % EBIT schielen, vergisst mir keiner den PE-Sponsor STAR Capital. Die sitzen nach dem IPO immer noch auf knapp 48 % der Hütte. Sobald die den nächsten Block platzieren, gibt’s den nächsten Kurssacker – worauf ich mich als Cashflow-Investor aber schon eiskalt freue!
Der Burggraben ist brachial: Was das Modell angeht, sind wir uns ja absolut einig. Wer Sole-Source-Lieferant im Leopard 2, Puma oder IRIS-T ist, hat über Jahrzehnte den High-Margin-Aftermarket sicher.
Mein Fazit:
Ein überragender SDAX-Quality-Pick – aber ich stimme dir 100% zu ! Ich kauf den Laden lieber mit echter Margin of Safety bei Rücksetzern, statt mir die Bewertung schönzusaufen! 😜
Prost mein Bester! 🍻
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