4Sem.·

Adapt to market phases

With this sale, I have liquidated virtually my entire buy and hold portion (around 50% of my investments). On the one hand to free up some powder for less expensive courses, but mainly to shift most of it into more flexible strategies that can adapt better to changing market conditions. And, as a nice side effect, usually perform better. The aim is not to miss any further rises and still avoid drawdowns if one should occur soon. According to the theory at least 🫡

01.10

Xtrackers MSCI World Momentum ETF

Vendu à 68,97 €

23 Commentaires

Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

4Sem.

Buy & Hold thrives on sitting out market phases. If you deviate from this, you automatically take a timing risk and have to consistently implement signals. Do you have a clearly defined set of rules for this, or do you tend to go with your gut feeling?

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@Yoshika Yes, at least 90% of them go into strategies with clearly defined rules. Partly momentum-based (GTAA), partly only SMA-based (different variants). I will research the exact allocation of the strategies in more detail. The rest possibly crypto or individual stocks. Are you going for a specific strategy or are you running one?

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

4Sem.

@Simon_n
Thanks for the insights, that sounds pretty systematic 👍. I'm taking more of a bottom-up trend-following approach.

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@Yoshika also interesting, trend following on single stocks or ETFs?

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

4Sem.

@Simon_n
rule-based via SMA200, stops and gradual position building. Let profits run, losses are consistently limited via stops, without active selling.
In other words, systematically at individual stock level.

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@Yoshika cool, I like it, good luck with it 🚀

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Yoshika 🦋.@Yoshika

4Sem.

@Simon_n
Thank you ♥️.
Good luck to you too.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

4Sem.

The good old market timing lol good luck you are basically gambling.
Going in and out market has been proven countless time to be a losing strategy, I don’t really understand why people still do this

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting It‘s not gambling, it‘s actually very strategic with clear rules. Only a small fraction of this is being kept for potential pullbacks, the vast majority will flow into well tested and proven Momentum strategies. As stated in the post, this is not about going in and out, but about rearranging my portfolio to be more resilient while delivering better performance.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

4Sem.

@Simon_n again, it’s being proven that keeping money on the side in hope for dips is a losing strategy in the long run, but you do you

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting true, but looking at many, many, market indicators, it doesn’t look very promising for the next year. Maybe I‘ll miss out on something, maybe not.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

4Sem.

You and I don’t have the knowledge to “look at the indicators”, this is only for phds working at Wall Street. Don’t fall for this bullshit, keep buying without looking at the news

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting Well those data are easily available, and some studies have shown, that the performance in the years following a phase with e.g. a higher than average CAPE-Ratio was significantly smaller. Why do you think that‘s just for wall street phds?

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

4Sem.

@Simon_n cape ratio has already been disproved as a predictive model. Do you think you can compete with Wall Street? Ahah

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting How exactly has it been disproven? I‘m not aware of any evidence, if you have any please share it. And it‘s not the only metric indicating a difficult market situation.

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting And I don‘t think I can compete with „wall street“ although thats not a person, I just want to secure my portfolio against deep drawdowns. That‘s all. If you think it doesn‘t work, fine.

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surgicalinvesting@surgicalinvesting

4Sem.

Cape ratio doesn’t take in consideration factors as risk factors. And history has proven that nobody can predict market drops consistently unless you are literally in the top 0.001% of investors. I’m telling you this to help you not lose money

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Simon_n@Simon_n

4Sem.

@surgicalinvesting Sure, and I appreciate that, but I would say statistics like the one on page 29 in this paper: https://mebfaber.com/wp-content/uploads/2016/04/GAA-Book-1.pdf suggest a certain significance. It might not be a causal connection, but they clearly seem to be related. And just to make this clear, I'm reinvesting at least 90% of that capital into a rule-based momentum strategy, to not miss out on the potential further bull market that you describe. The other 10% I'm not sure, maybe hold it in $XEON and wait, maybe invest it too.

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