Two days ago I wrote about the strategic transformation of $HDD (-1.59%) from from a traditional mechanical engineering company to a focused provider for system integration, digitalization and now also defence supply. The market's reaction was strong: +30 % daily increase - a strong signal.
But disillusionment came after the Q1 figuresThe share price plummeted, currently around -8 % in one dayfrom the high.
Why this abrupt market reaction?
After the +30 % rally day, the drop was large. Many market participants had expected spectacular figures - not just "solid" ones. The order intake was noticeably below the previous year's figure (Drupa special effect), which disappointed some.
The entry into the defense business is also not yet reflected in the figures - which may have led to some profit-taking.
In addition, the share was technically heavily overbought - so a setback was almost inevitable.
But was the report really that bad?
My classification:
- Incoming orders: € 559 million (previous year: € 701 million) → Decline of -20%, but: Q1'24 was exceptionally strong due to the drupa trade fair (special effect)
- Sales: € 476 million (previous year: € 403 million) → +18% growth
- EBITDA margin:+4.4 (previous year: -2.3%) → Profitability is restored
- EBIT: € +1.9 million
(previous year: € -27.9 million) → Strong improvement of € 29.8 million - Outlook for 2025/26 confirmed - Management remains at € 2.35 billion sales & approx. 8% EBITDA margin → Strong signal of confidence
Looking ahead to Q2 and H2:
- Orders from Q1 are likely in Q2 sales and margins in Q2 become effective
- Efficiency measures & personnel restructuring (e.g. segment structure) will begin to have a noticeable effect this year, according to management to have a noticeable effect
- New business areas such as defense supply and the system integration via Polar Mohr start operationally - Scaling expected from H2
- Vincorion partnership and the growing packaging division (Boardmaster) could provide additional provide an additional boost to sales and earnings deliver
Langfrist-Ausblick (2026–2028):
- Clear segment responsibility, focus on digital services & defense supply
- Strategy "Margin before volume" is consistently implemented
- CEO Otto possesses turnaround experience & clear implementation power
- $HDD (-1.59%) is still a second-line stock - but with potential for structural revaluation
My conclusion:
I personally hold my position and plan additional purchases in trancheswhen setbacks open up opportunities.
Prices of € 3-5 by 2026/2027
are realistic if the strategy is successfully implemented - possibly even more if the defense branch is scaled.
👉 How do you see it? A setback after a rally or an entry opportunity with substance?
Feel free to comment - I look forward to hearing your views!
