In my view (based on the current situation), the likelihood that the Fed will refrain from further interest rate hikes in the near future is negligible…
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin But on Friday, the job market and the 10-year Treasury showed exactly the opposite.
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@Codeandcapital Wait and see. Tomorrow's inflation data—which, according to Warsh, is much more likely to be the main driver of interest rate policy.😉
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin "He said this after the last meeting, but the market isn't pricing in an interest rate hike right now anyway. Inflation is also just a temporary situation at the moment; once the war is over—which could happen at any time—the labor market, which is currently shrinking, will skyrocket," he added with a wink.
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@Codeandcapital However, the current rise in the unemployment rate is due to a temporary increase in people leaving the labor force, rather than a genuine “sharp” downward trend. Let me put it this way: at some point, we’ll surely have a better idea of how monetary policy will unfold.🤷🏼♂️ It’s good that there are different opinions and assessments to serve as a basis for discussion.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Mathematically speaking, that’s unfortunately the other way around: When people leave the workforce, the unemployment rate in the BLS model falls because they are no longer counted as unemployed. When the rate rises, more people are actively looking for work—which is exactly what the cooling off in the labor market indicates. 😉 But you’re right—let’s just take a “wait-and-see” approach for tomorrow’s inflation data.
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