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The next BTC/crypto crash

My forecast: The next $BTC (+0,22 %) / $ETH (-1,46 %) / crypto crash will come and it will be bloody. The trigger event will probably be the demise of the DATs (Strategy, Mara, Metaplanet etc.). The business model is not viable in the long term and the collapse is inevitable. What do you think?

Read the following article:

https://josephayoub.substack.com/p/dats-not-going-to-last?r=4pk6s1&triedRedirect=true

TL;DR:

Joseph Ayoub argues that Digital Asset Treasuries (DATs) like MicroStrategy only work as long as their shares trade above intrinsic value (NAV). This premium enables the self-reinforcing "flywheel" effect (share issuance → BTC purchases → price increase → new premium).

As soon as confidence wanes and the shares are traded at a discount, the model breaks: no new inflows, no growth momentum → DATs become "zombie companies". For MicroStrategy, this means in the long term: permanent discount, regulatory pressure, possible lawsuits - and Michael Saylor's role changes from visionary to shady person.

In short: the "financial alchemy" model of DATs will not last - in the end, what remains is a closed-end fund with a discount.

josephayoub.substack.comDATs not going to last

6 Commentaires

Stefan21@stefan_21

It is quite possible that Treasurys will be responsible for the next bear market. However, Strategy should easily get through the next 3 years because no convertible bonds will mature in the meantime. And they can continue to pay dividends for years to come - before this becomes a problem.
However, if mNav falls below 1 for several years, they will find it difficult to print more shares and may then no longer be able to pay the convertible bonds and dividends of the prefs zahlen🤷‍♂️
Then the only thing left to do would be to sell BTC, which would mean the business model had finally failed

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Eselai@DonkeyInvestor

I'm looking forward to it

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Gernhard@Gernhard_Reinholzen

@DonkeyInvestor Me too, somehow, but somehow not 🤣

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Ph1l1pp@Ph1l1pp

Is the general consensus...

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Lucky L.@JonathanPeachum

That's like saying: "The next crash (on the overall market) is coming."

Up to now, strong rises have always been followed by corrections. These were regularly "bloody", if corrections of 80% or more are meant. But the market runs correspondingly far during the boom phase.

Much more exciting would be the timing of the correction or a classification of where the crypto market is heading.

This has hardly any added value.

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Gernhard@Gernhard_Reinholzen

@JonathanPeachum You're right, there are some analogies. I think the special thing is that it is a reasonably predictable event, but one that has devastating consequences. If such a risk is recognizable in a share, the price of that share will adjust. With BTC/ETH, however, the party goes on. Just like Chuck Prince: "As long as the music is playing, you gotta dance." I don't think anyone can predict when the music will stop playing.

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