$SMCI (-8,04 %) . Trying to guess what a company will report or how the market will react is like trying to predict the weather three months out – you might get lucky, but more likely, you'll get soaked.
So, why did I take a position in SMCI ahead of their first accounts filing for months and upcoming earnings? Well, this one's a bit of an exception for me, and it hinges on a few key things. It's not about predicting the numbers. Instead, it's about a confluence of factors that, in my view, create a unique situation.
First, the AI boom is real, and SMCI is positioned right in the thick of it. They're not just talking about AI; they're providing the hardware that makes it happen. This isn't a fad; it's a fundamental shift in technology. Second, and this is crucial, the price action leading up to this point has been incredibly strong. Technical analysis isn't foolproof, but the sustained upward momentum tells a story. It suggests significant institutional interest and a belief in the company's potential.
Third, while the accounts filing is important, I'm less concerned with hitting a home run on earnings and more interested in the narrative that emerges. Even if they miss slightly on the numbers, if the commentary around future growth, market share, and product development is positive, the stock could continue its run. It's about the bigger picture.
Now, let's be clear: this is still a risky trade. Earnings season is always a gamble, and there's no guarantee things will go my way. But I've sized my position accordingly, and I have a clear exit strategy in place. This isn't a "hold and hope" situation. It's a calculated bet based on a combination of fundamental trends, technical strength, and a focus on the long-term narrative. It’s a trade where I see asymmetric upside potential. But remember, past performance is not indicative of future results so don't take this as advice to go and do the same. Do your own research and manage your own risk.
