Mega interesting and of course never heard of it before.
Of course, not my profile at all, but tempting for a little gambling somehow.
I sent "the analyst" your lottery ticket satellite position thesis, here is his honest answer for you.😉
Hold on to that credit card. When your buddies "Rocket Toni" and "Mr. Prompt" (the names alone are a red flag for any serious portfolio allocation) tout Desert Control as the "Next Big Thing", they're selling you a vision, not a balance sheet.
Here's the fact-based, ruthlessly honest categorization of the "lottery ticket" thesis:
1. the "Lotto Ticket" profile: the bare numbers
A classic lottery ticket on the stock market is characterized by two things: An extremely low probability of success, but an astronomical return if it occurs.
- The stake: your capital. With Desert Control, the risk of a total loss (delisting or massive dilution to the point of insignificance) is real. Why? Because the company will still be burning more money than it earns at the end of 2025/beginning of 2026.
- The drawdown: will not take place tomorrow, but will last for years. The sales cycle in agriculture is agonizingly slow. A farmer doesn't convert 1,000 hectares to a new technology overnight just because a startup from Norway says so.
- The Winning Class: If Desert Control becomes the standard for irrigation in California, Arizona and the UAE, we're talking about a ten- or twenty-fold increase in price. That's the "rocket" Toni is dreaming of.
2 The reality check: Why it's not (yet) an "investment"
If you were an analyst at a major company (such as Goldman or Morgan Stanley), you would currently classify Desert Control as "pre-revenue / early commercial stage speculation".
- The scaling bottleneck: LNC (Liquid Natural Clay) production requires dedicated units on site. This is not a software business that can be scaled with a click. It is capital-intensive. Every new region needs machines, logistics and personnel.
- The dilution spiral: Look at the number of shares. Every time money gets tight, Desert Control issues new shares. This means that even if the company earns billions at some point, you as an existing shareholder will only own a tiny fraction of it due to dilution. Your "lottery winnings" are therefore constantly shared.
- Competition: Desert Control is not alone. There are humic acids, hydrogels and other soil conditioners. LNC is innovative, but not a monopoly on physical laws.
3 "Satellite position" - What it really means
If you place Desert Control in the depot as a "satellite", the following rules apply
1. position size: Max. 1-2% of your total depot. If it goes to zero, it must not affect the rest of your life. If it ignites, this small sum is enough for a vacation or a new car.
2. time horizon: 5 to 10 years. Anyone hoping for a quickie here will usually be caught cold by the next quarterly report (with a new loss of millions).
3. exit strategy: set yourself tough milestones. If there are no significant commercial contracts in the USA (not just pilot projects!) by the end of 2026, the story is dead.
The honest conclusion
Yes, Desert Control is a lottery ticket. But one where the draw takes place every three months (quarterly figures) and the chances of winning diminish with every day that there is no real revenue flow.
Of course, not my profile at all, but tempting for a little gambling somehow.
I sent "the analyst" your lottery ticket satellite position thesis, here is his honest answer for you.😉
Hold on to that credit card. When your buddies "Rocket Toni" and "Mr. Prompt" (the names alone are a red flag for any serious portfolio allocation) tout Desert Control as the "Next Big Thing", they're selling you a vision, not a balance sheet.
Here's the fact-based, ruthlessly honest categorization of the "lottery ticket" thesis:
1. the "Lotto Ticket" profile: the bare numbers
A classic lottery ticket on the stock market is characterized by two things: An extremely low probability of success, but an astronomical return if it occurs.
- The stake: your capital. With Desert Control, the risk of a total loss (delisting or massive dilution to the point of insignificance) is real. Why? Because the company will still be burning more money than it earns at the end of 2025/beginning of 2026.
- The drawdown: will not take place tomorrow, but will last for years. The sales cycle in agriculture is agonizingly slow. A farmer doesn't convert 1,000 hectares to a new technology overnight just because a startup from Norway says so.
- The Winning Class: If Desert Control becomes the standard for irrigation in California, Arizona and the UAE, we're talking about a ten- or twenty-fold increase in price. That's the "rocket" Toni is dreaming of.
2 The reality check: Why it's not (yet) an "investment"
If you were an analyst at a major company (such as Goldman or Morgan Stanley), you would currently classify Desert Control as "pre-revenue / early commercial stage speculation".
- The scaling bottleneck: LNC (Liquid Natural Clay) production requires dedicated units on site. This is not a software business that can be scaled with a click. It is capital-intensive. Every new region needs machines, logistics and personnel.
- The dilution spiral: Look at the number of shares. Every time money gets tight, Desert Control issues new shares. This means that even if the company earns billions at some point, you as an existing shareholder will only own a tiny fraction of it due to dilution. Your "lottery winnings" are therefore constantly shared.
- Competition: Desert Control is not alone. There are humic acids, hydrogels and other soil conditioners. LNC is innovative, but not a monopoly on physical laws.
3 "Satellite position" - What it really means
If you place Desert Control in the depot as a "satellite", the following rules apply
1. position size: Max. 1-2% of your total depot. If it goes to zero, it must not affect the rest of your life. If it ignites, this small sum is enough for a vacation or a new car.
2. time horizon: 5 to 10 years. Anyone hoping for a quickie here will usually be caught cold by the next quarterly report (with a new loss of millions).
3. exit strategy: set yourself tough milestones. If there are no significant commercial contracts in the USA (not just pilot projects!) by the end of 2026, the story is dead.
The honest conclusion
Yes, Desert Control is a lottery ticket. But one where the draw takes place every three months (quarterly figures) and the chances of winning diminish with every day that there is no real revenue flow.
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin yes by and large what I wrote 😬🤷 is like lotto and hey whether car or vacation or house depends on the amount you have 😆 thanks for your commi and I say yes, that was not a normal stock performance 🙃
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•@Raketentoni You are absolutely right about vacation, car or house.😂
Looking forward to the next performance from you.😉
Looking forward to the next performance from you.😉
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The next one will be the complete opposite, but first it's @Tenbagger2024 tomorrow 😬
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I now have a holding company with Mr. Prompt and @Raketentoni. We now share the work
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•@Tenbagger2024 I read it in your comment history, I think it's great.😁👌🏻
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin At the moment it would probably be better to invest in fertilizer companies. Fertilizer prices are rising enormously. Let's see when prices rise and drive up inflation. Then 🍊will be stoned to death. The farmers probably won't vote for him anymore
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I still have a few exciting companies in the pipeline
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•@Tenbagger2024
If you want to play the gas price thesis aggressively and with focus, CF Industries is the most direct profiteer with massive margins. If you want to cover the entire agricultural and commodities sector, Nutrien is the broad rock in the surf. I would currently steer clear of European players due to the cost of gas.
If you want to play the gas price thesis aggressively and with focus, CF Industries is the most direct profiteer with massive margins. If you want to cover the entire agricultural and commodities sector, Nutrien is the broad rock in the surf. I would currently steer clear of European players due to the cost of gas.
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin Now no one is likely to leave getquin because of PROMPT HOLDING, which means pure excitement. @Raketentoni
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•@Raketentoni Mr. Prompt's nephew had already spit out CF to me last week
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