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Chris
@Multibagger
2Sem.·

Gas market?

With my second purchase, I asked myself who could benefit most from a prolonged conflict with further rising prices for gas and LNG. As there are enough of these in the USA and Canada, which also have no transport restrictions, my choice fell on a rather unknown stock here with $VET (+1,85 %) .

07.03
Vermilion Energy logo
Vermilion Energy
Acheté à 11,25 $US
19
22 Commentaires
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TheRealRichi@Badehose
2Sem.
Did you have a look at $LNG in the course of this?
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@Badehose no, as I tend to look for small caps
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Olli@Olli68
2Sem.
Uiii... interessant 👍
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Epi@Epi
2Sem.
I share your basic idea. But I think I'm a bit more conservative with $3NGL. Eliminates the business risk. 😏
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@Epi It caught me on the wrong foot twice. So now I thought I'd try something else.
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Epi@Epi
2Sem.
@Multibagger Yes, it's not easy to trade. After all, it also increases storage costs. Quick in and out is the motto. 👍
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@Epi Yes, I realized that too late. But you learn from your mistakes.
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jkb92@jkb92
2Sem.
Do you really think the war of aggression (calling a spade a spade) will last any longer? I think DT will want to avoid it for various reasons. Majority in America sees a (prolonged) war as wrong/unnecessary and if energy prices and thus inflation rises in the midterm year...
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@jkb92 The US government has requested additional staff for the staff units responsible for coordination and planning until September. The USA is not so affected by the higher energy prices. They produce enough themselves. But they are hitting China hard. 80% of the oil that passes through the Strait of Hormuz goes to China. Putin will also stop gas supplies to Europe.
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Olli@Olli68
2Sem.
@jkb92 And how will he avoid this without completely losing the entire region to China?
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jkb92@jkb92
2Sem.
@Olli68 Well, I'm curious to see how long China will put up with this. Fortunately, even the USA can't afford to completely alienate China (keyword: rare earths and electronics).
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Olli@Olli68
2Sem.
@jkb92 The ships going to China will not be attacked. Sooner or later, the USA's partners (South Korea, Japan, etc.) will have to move closer to China so that they can be supplied without being attacked.
The Gulf states continue to sell to China; the USA and its allies are increasingly falling behind in the region.
If the US wants to prevent this, it will have to stay there for a very long time and complete its objectives. If it withdraws immediately, it will always remain the bad guy and the loser in the region vis-à-vis China.
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jkb92@jkb92
2Sem.
@Olli68 I could live with the result. I don't think there's a nation in the world that has done more damage there than the USA.
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Seventrader@7Trader
2Sem.
I remain bullish on $CHK Expand Energy 💯💪🏽
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@7Trader have not benefited, contrary to your assumption from 7 months ago
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Seventrader@7Trader
2Sem.
@Multibagger Yes, that's totally true. It's been a no-go so far. Nevertheless, I'm sticking with it. Expand is currently by far the largest natural gas producer in the USA, as well as the leading main supplier for LNG terminals. In the meantime, they are already concluding direct LNG contracts with international buyers.
I just have to wait patiently until the cash register rings 🤑🤞🏼
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mkaps@mkaps
2Sem.
What about $UKW ?
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Chris@Multibagger
2Sem.
@mkaps I can't say anything about that, I've never dealt with it.
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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH
2Sem.
When @Epi introduced its Zock ($3NGL), I was hooked. But all I read was a glut of LNG. Due to supply increases from Qatar and the USA, there is an expected oversupply. Will the war affect this for a long time? Difficult.

I'm staying on the sidelines.
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Epi@Epi
2Sem.
@Gehebeltes-EFH The idea behind the gamble was that all the things you mentioned are already priced in and that upside surprises are now possible.

The idea is that if LNG from the Middle East fails, demand for LNG from the USA could rise in the short term. The LNG price in Europe has risen by almost 50% in the last few days, which should also influence the Henry Hub.
Let's see if that works. 🤷
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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH
2Sem.
@Epi Start of war, Qatar stops LNG production, Russ. LNG tank destroyed off Malta. All the news has only led to mini-movements. Let's see.
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Epi@Epi
2Sem.
@Gehebeltes-EFH I am betting on a tipping point here. Once the panic sets in, then 100% is quickly possible. If not, then a 15% SL loss. 🤷
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