Because Volkswagen $VOW (-0,22 %) and Porsche $P911 (+1,16 %)
$PAH3 (+0,06 %) are among my biggest investments, here’s an update on the Q3 sales figures released today...
...and they really don’t look good:
Global Global sales fell by 14.3% in the third quarter compared to Q3/25. That corresponds to about 315,000 fewer vehicles delivered. Once again, the main source of the crisis is CChina, with a decline of 38.5%. With the exception of Central and Eastern Europe, all global regions posted declines in the third quarter.
Particularly concerning is that the downward trend has accelerated. Here’s how the percentage change compares to the same quarter of the previous year (Q1, Q2, Q3; the worst quarter in each period is in bold):
🇪🇺 Western Europe: +4.2%, +1.8%, −2.8%
🌍 Central and Eastern Europe: +7.6%, +6.7%, +1.4%
🇺🇸 North America:
−13.3%, +7.7%, −5.8%
🌎 South America: +7.0%, +9.4%, −2.4%
🇨🇳 China: −14.8%, −36.6%, −38.5%
🌏 Rest of Asia/Pacific: −8.0%, −7.2%, −12.4%
🌍 Middle East/Africa: −5.3%, −1.9%, −10.0%
Total: −4.0%, −8.6%, −14.3%
The problems now affect virtually the entire group and are intensifying as the year progresses. So where do the problems lie?
🇨🇳 China: A toxic mix of consumer reluctance, an extremely competitive market, and the rapid rise of local manufacturers. When it comes to software, development speed, and, in some cases, price, Chinese brands are putting VW under enormous competitive pressure. A small glimmer of hope: VW reports that pure BEV deliveries in China rose by 30% in Q3? When measured against the total figures, however, this is likely completely negligible... unfortunately.
🇺🇸 U.S.: Tariffs and a more challenging market environment are weighing on business. Sales in North America fell by 5.8% in the third quarter. There’s likely no solution in sight here for the foreseeable future...
🇪🇺 Europe: Things are getting increasingly uncomfortable here as well. Chinese manufacturers are pushing into the market and putting pressure on VW, especially in the affordable electric car segment. While high gas prices are accelerating demand for electric cars, for VW this is both a blessing and a curse. Currently, capacity is insufficient to meet the demand for affordable electric models (e.g., the ID Polo), and margins in this segment aren’t high enough either.
The proposed plant closures in Germany suddenly no longer seem like a mere threat to me but are almost a necessity. Across the group, the plants are likely not operating at full capacity at the moment (especially in China). In the long term, production will likely have to be relocated. In Germany, only the luxury models will ultimately remain.
In any case, the sales figures are abysmal. There’s no sugarcoating it. Since Q3 was already largely over at the time the forecast was lowered, that should already be factored in. But I’m wondering about Q4. To meet the new forecast, Q4 has to be better than Q3; otherwise, they won’t even meet the new forecast. Or is the old “salami tactic” coming into play again here?? 🤔
But to end on a positive note:
The new entry-level electric models are apparently a hit 👍🏼
For the Electric Urban Car Family—which includes the VW ID. Polo, VW ID. Cross, Škoda Epiq, and CUPRA Raval—the group has now reported just under 150,000 orders. That’s a pretty impressive start, especially since deliveries haven’t even begun for all models yet.
The shared technical platform and production in Spain are expected to enable economies of scale. And I also see potential in the new ID. Tiguan (as far as I know, pre-orders start tomorrow?). They’ve done a lot right there (except for the charging speed)...
With that in mind, I really hope that VW finally gets its act together and stands up to the state of Lower Saxony and the IG Metall union once and for all. When I hear that they’re asking for another 5% pay raise here… It’s crazy.
