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Stevo · 2024-04-20T10:01:46.427121Z

Nachkauf American Water Works. American Water Works ist ein Wasser Versorger in den USA. Oft liest man den Satz „XY wird immer konsumiert“, um auszudrücken, dass ein Produkt immer nachgefragt wird, unabhängig von der wirtschaftlichen Lage o.ä.. In meinen Augen oft ein Trugschluss - Gegessen wird z.B. immer, aber was genau? Vielleicht doch die günstigen Eigenmarken…? Bei der Wasserversorgung hingegen trifft der Satz wohl tatsächlich zu. Frisches Wasser wird immer benötigt - und man kann nicht zwischen 100 Wasserversorgern wählen. Die Sicherheit des Geschäftsmodells von AWK wurde daher wohl in der Vergangenheit mit einem deutlichen Bewertungsaufschlag prämiert (KGV zwischen 30 und 40). Mittlerweile liegt das KGV bei 24 und damit deutlich unterhalb der letzten Jahre und des historischen Durchschnitts. Die Dividendenrendite liegt damit bei ca. 2,4%. Aufgrund der Planbarkeit der Umsätze und Gewinne und das krisensichere Geschäftsmodell halte ich die Dividende für gesichert und sie sollte in Zukunft weiterhin gesteigert werden können (letze 5 Jahre ca. 9,7% Steigerung p.a.). Ein Stück weit belasten die anhaltenden Zinsen das Unternehmen, da es auch Übernahmen tätigt bzw. die Versorgung von öffentlichen Trägern übernimmt (privatisiert). Das stellt in meinen Augen aber nur einen temporären Effekt dar. Ich habe auch lange schon den Wasser-Tech-Wert Xylem auf dem Zettel - der ist mir aber immer noch zu teuer. Daher die Entscheidung für AWK. Was sind deine Gedanken zur Aktie oder zur Branche?

Stevo

@Money-Man

9Mo·

Subsequent purchase American Water Works.

American Water Works is a water supplier in the USA. You often read the sentence "XY is always consumed" to express that a product is always in demand, regardless of the economic situation or similar.

In my opinion, this is often a fallacy - people always eat, for example, but what exactly? Maybe the cheap own brands...?

When it comes to water supply, on the other hand, the sentence is probably true. Fresh water is always needed - and you can't choose between 100 water suppliers.

The security of AWK's business model was therefore probably rewarded with a significant valuation premium in the past (P/E ratio between 30 and 40). The P/E ratio is now 24, which is significantly lower than in recent years and the historical average.

The dividend yield is therefore around 2.4%.

Due to the predictability of sales and profits and the crisis-proof business model, I consider the dividend to be secure and it should continue to increase in the future (last 5 years approx. 9.7% increase p.a.).

The persistent interest rates are a burden on the company to some extent, as it is also making takeovers or taking over the supply of public institutions (privatization).

In my opinion, however, this is only a temporary effect.

I've also had the water tech stock Xylem on my radar for a long time - but it's still too expensive for me. Hence the decision in favor of AWK.

What are your thoughts on the share or the sector?

18.04

American Water

Acheté x9 à 109,00 €

981,00 €

7 Commentaires

Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

9Mo

Excellent presentation of the investment rationale.🫡

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Dussel Duck 🍎🍏🥂@DusselDuck

9Mo

I am also invested. I remain confident!

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

9Mo

I would put $KRN on my watch.
The largest water bottler in the USA, which is unfortunately not listed on the stock exchange, is a customer there and generates good sales.

I take a rather critical view of water suppliers; should a law be passed to improve water quality, some will be left out in the cold.

Anyone who has ever showered in a hotel in the USA without a water filter will know the smell of chlorine 😅

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Stevo@Money-Man

9Mo

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur exciting, thanks for sharing your thoughts.
I hadn't had the share so much on my radar in the water business. However, it was ruled out for me due to its location in Germany - I try to avoid it wherever possible (anti-home bias).

I also see legal regulation as the biggest risk. But more in the direction of greater intervention in pricing when water becomes (more) scarce. However, I don't see that happening until well into the future. Intervention in the market is also less common in the USA.
With regard to the problem you described, there is already a solution in the form of filters. I can't imagine why there should be stricter regulation here - especially as everyone there should have become accustomed to chlorinated water.

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Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

9Mo

@Money-Man I can't subscribe to the point about legal regulations,
They are something like ASML😅 in their industry
When I left there last year, there was an internal statement that every second bottle worldwide now goes through a Krones machine

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Stevo@Money-Man

9Mo

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur sorry - my paragraph on regulations referred to $AWK again.
$KRN I'll take a closer look at it again. You wrote that you would put it on your watchlist. Do you think it is currently too expensive? Do you have a price target for it?
VG

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Bardok@AE23

9Mo

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur
Basically, I have to say that I am fundamentally in favor of state regulation and water supply in public hands.
Critical infrastructure simply does not belong in private hands.

I come from the water supply business.

It simply has too many disadvantages.
The infrastructure is dragged down and the maximum profit is made.

In Germany, I have already seen how privatization was carried out and nothing was ever done to the pipes and only money was siphoned off.
Burst pipes etc. Increased.
Until the decision was made to remunicipalize. These are very expensive undertakings to remunicipalize. But it was worth it.

Rather rely on technology and suppliers for water supply and disposal.

See Xylem $XYL, Ecolab $ECL, or Advanced Drainage Systems (ADS)

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