1Année·

The 3-fold leveraged experiment was terminated. Approx. 1600 euros profit on the day trade, approx. 4500 euros loss. Makes. ca 3K loss. A 3x ETF does not make up 1:1 if the price falls when it rises again. I.e. when Nasdaq 100 was back at the time of purchase, the 3x was still in the red as often described due to path dependency and TEUR. I see a correction possibility for tech stocks in 2024 and the risk was too great for me to go into the red again to this extent. That was hard to bear. I plan to reduce my hours/work part-time soon, for which the portfolio pays, and there are extensive investments in the pipeline. I will keep you up to date. Thanks for reading and thanks to everyone who has the balls to post a dip in the toilet.

16.01
WisdomTree NASDAQ 100 3x Daily Leveraged logo
a vendu x282 à 140,39 €
39 588,57 €
10,35 %
95
27 Commentaires

image de profil
1Année
I think it's great that you also report on a failed project. You can learn more from that than from any winning posts!

Can you briefly describe the key data of the experiment again?
Capital invested, start date, end date, trading rule. Reason for stop.

I would be interested because I am running a similar experiment with 3xGTAA.
43
@Epi Leverage is always good, you just have to find the right entry point and I had the wrong.... If there is interest, I can publish the exact figures, just as I did with the leverage with credit project. Once again, I would like to point out to everyone that I took a risk here with a manageable portfolio amount and the loss is less than 1% of the portfolio value.
image de profil
1Année
@TopperHarley Yes, I have also read a lot about leverage, thought about it and tested it. Conclusion: Risk management is essential, i.e. above all loss reduction (due to path dependency, leverage costs). This requires a clear, robust strategy and iron discipline. Then it can work.

As I would judge it from a distance, your project failed because you didn't have a strategy that limited your losses and hedged your profits (going long in a falling market with long leverage is a no-go, in my opinion). Here is a model with a very simple trading rule: buy 3xQQQ, if QQQ is above GD200, sell below. You would have made over +60% since 4/22. https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/tactical-asset-allocation-model?s=y&sl=1ZBqeLtjVCaZk8mZdg78NR
2
@Epi I also find the gd200 strategy very interesting, but am I too stupid to read the data from your link? Surely the moving average model has less return than the normal buy?
image de profil
1Année
@Kalle2 The GD200 strategy is more complex than it looks at first glance. The MA model has lower returns than B&H. This is quite normal for the GD200 strategy. It does not necessarily increase the return, but rather reduces the risk. Take a look at the maxDD. 😉

The background to this is that markets above GD200 rise around 70% of the time and fall around 70% of the time below it. If you leverage, you have to avoid falling prices as much as possible because of path dependency, i.e. only trade above GD200.

The task would be to modify the model so that the risk falls to or below GD200 and the return rises to or above B&H. Not easy! 😅
1
image de profil
Such contributions are important 👍
8
image de profil
I belong to the generation that went through a Greek bankruptcy. Thank goodness I had a stop loss and got out of it with minus 3 thousand. Buy at 98% automatic sell at 90%. After a few days the prices had plummeted to 30%. Then I became even more cautious. Your experiences are worth their weight in gold if you allocate them correctly. Otherwise you will realize that gambling is addictive. Then you might as well go to the arcade every day and put coins in, at least you'll have some exercise until you reach the slot machine :).
2
Thank you for your assessment. The loss here was less than 1% of the portfolio value. Since I also suffered with MPT, I am currently choosing a slightly smaller position size.
1
It's nice that you also share the loss.
But to be honest, you could hardly have entered at a worse time. 01.04.2022 was the start of a 10-year bull market. At the same time, there was a trend reversal as the 200-day line was broken from above. If you had followed a few rules, you had made a few thousand plus in that time.
The paper already provides a good basis of knowledge:

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2741701

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1664823

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=1149340
2
@Lukas2998 Thank you
image de profil
I've burned my fingers on that thing before. Have fun part-time :) I'm also doing my last year full-time 👍🏽
2
image de profil
Nice contribution! Can be linked as a reference for many who get the idea.
1
1Année
What a coincidence. I also sold the same ETF today at 140.87€. But I was lucky and made +30%. Of course only with "play money".
1
Many thanks for the contribution!
I'm still up 187% 😁
1
image de profil
I bought this ETF in the last low and have done VERY well with it over the last year. But I have now also reduced my position very, very significantly, similar thought process.
1
I'm also running a little experiment and am in a weekly savings plan with €25, up 21.8% since July 23.
1
@Kalle2 From today's perspective, your sale is annoying! My experiment is still going well, but I'm afraid that it will soon go down steeply.
image de profil
if you had waited 2 days longer, you would have been in the plus 😔
1
@keanuu 😰 I've already seen it too. But don't worry, I didn't layer and things ran along a bit. It was a risk assessment.
1
image de profil
The learning effect will certainly be greater than the loss.
1
image de profil
At least the learning curve always goes up with such experiments...to take something positive away from the whole thing.😉
image de profil
Simply leverage Rheinmetall and you should quickly recoup your loss
@Bosshaft Rheinmetall has just made an insider purchase. I think something is brewing.
@Bosshaft
Date

15.1.2024

Type

Purchase

Insider

Georgi, Professor Dr. Andreas Arthur

Position

Supervisory Board

Ø-price

315,2 €

Volume

28.368 €
image de profil
also have the 3x in the portfolio, in the
dip dca, since then 120% in the plus - have partly shifted into the 2x lev nasdaq to take out some 'risk' 😂
@keanuu was a bad trade on my part. But I'm not ruling out trying again after a major correction.
1
Participez à la conversation