5J·

Serious reality check

The premium function enabled me to benchmark my portfolio. Apparently I am only at the level of the S&P 500, everything else has outperformed me. Special attention should be paid to the Stoxx Europe 50 $EUE (-0,46 %) (green in the chart), which performed best and completely outperformed me.

What do I learn from this? I'm not as good as I thought and in the all-time period (beginning 14.08.22 to 10.05.25) I'm just keeping up with the S&P 500 $CSPX (+0,46 %) with.

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In the 1Y view I was also outperformed several times, but towards the end I was just able to keep up with the Stoxx Europe 50.

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In the short term (1M), however, I outperformed them all.

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In summary, I am happy that I am on a par with the S&P 500 in the long term. A goal that many investors do not manage to surpass. Nevertheless, I could have invested directly in the S&P 500 from the start.

If relevant: My TTWROR is 23%. While I have only made 22% in just under 3 years, the DAX has made 85% in the same time. Apparently the USA is the yield brake and not Europe, as I thought 3 years ago.

I will now pay more attention to Germany and Europe and try to reduce my 75% US share to 50%.

44 Commentaires

Epi@Epi

Thanks for the insight. May everyone with a big stock portfolio feel inspired! 😁

Nevertheless, I have a question: You regret that 3 years ago you bet on the then top performer SP500 and not on the low performer EU50. Now you want to go back to the top performer of the last 3 years and avoid the current low performer EM. Why? Haven't you learned that it is difficult to outperform the market if you bet on the top performers of the last 3 years? And that you should rather bet on the low performers of the last few years if you want to have outperformers in the next 3 years?
Just a thought...

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Renditebremse@100erHebel

@Epi You're right, of course. I think I should perhaps think the whole thing over again. I've always ignored the EM so far. Perhaps the 70/30 from Finanzfluss is the better alternative in the long term (20+ years).

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Epi
Interesting approach.
But compare the S&P with the Euro Stoxx over the long term.
You quickly see that outperformer remains outperformer.
And a low performer remains a low performer.

My dear @Epi
Of course, you may not be entirely wrong about your momentum strategy.

But for the long-term buy and hold investor who wants to sit back and relax without doing much. the S&P would be the better choice

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Epi@Epi

@Tenbagger2024 Of course, if you simply wanted to invest passively, you could simply hold the SP500 in the past. If you can remain relaxed during interim drawdowns of -50% and continue to assume American Exceptionalism, this is definitely the best choice.
I would probably prefer MSCIWorld, MSCIWorld Quality or MSCIWorld Momentum. This also gives you a passive approach to the question of which region will outperform.

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Epi
As far as I can remember, the NASDAQ also outperformed the World Momentum over the long term.
You just had to have good nerves and be able to withstand the drawdowns

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Epi@Epi

@Tenbagger2024 Yes, the Nasdaq is once again in a league of its own. 😅

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Epi
You just have to be able to stand it.
Maybe in drawdowns in the Van Eck dividend ETF. And stay in the NASDAQ in bull markets. But not relevant for me, as I am invested in individual stocks
And here the effort of your momentum strategy would be very high.
And in the end it might only be detrimental to performance.
Perhaps you should mention again in the next presentation that it is not worthwhile for individual stocks. And could even be counterproductive.

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Stulle 🥪@Stullen-Portfolio

@Epi
@Tenbagger2024

Yep...and Nasdaq is then (almost) a one-state bet again, with a classic market capitalization weighting. Is that what you want?...and if so, with what share?

Greetings
🥪

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Stullen-Portfolio
This brings us back to the old topic. How much risk am I prepared to take? The analysis shows me that in terms of diversification, the NASDAQ with the US and tech share is more risky.
The performance history shows me that the risk here should not be high.
As it continues to go up in the long term and is even an outperformer.
Should I follow the reason that tells me you are not ideally diversified?
Or the mind that tells me you're an outperformer here historically and in the long term?
???

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Stulle 🥪@Stullen-Portfolio

@Tenbagger2024
You said it! It's a lot of psychology!...and it's extremely individual.
...and once you have found a strategy for yourself, depending on your own psyche, this strategy then meets the real market development and your own real emotions when you apply it...and depending on your own psyche, the whole thing may start all over again. 😎🤙🍀🚀💯✊🏻🤷♟️

Greetings
🥪

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Tenbagger2024@Tenbagger2024

@Stullen-Portfolio
Yes, I've seen a lot of people from the community here in the last few days who are considering throwing their entire strategy overboard because of the crash. Looking for stocks that are not burdened by tariffs. Invest massively in Europe and defense. And chase trends, hype, etc.
People are now selling cheap stocks in order to invest in expensive hype stocks.
People are losing faith in an entire country and completely ignoring history.
Guided by a somewhat chaotic policy of 🍊.
Fear of loss is growing, Alphabet is drawing parallels with Disney.
Psychology plays a huge role here.

How do you behave in this phase?

Kate @Iwanowitsch

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Voir toutes les 22 autres réponses

Martin B.@zebAshor84

Back and forth empties your pockets.
Time in the Market > Timing the Market.

Stick to a strategy, relax and enjoy your life.

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Stulle 🥪@Stullen-Portfolio

recency bias 🤷

Greeting
🥪

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Felix@Investor_in_Jogginghose

I think you are drawing the wrong conclusions from your data. It could be, for example, that the US is only weakening temporarily and then outperforming the DAX again (as is usually the case). The probability is also increased by the low valuation, which has occurred due to a special political effect and is not a sign of structural weakness.

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Christian@christian

22H

Thanks!

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Pedro M.@serkeftin

Thanks, great contribution! I'm also thinking about going premium, but I'm skeptical, because I think getquin could also offer it for free and bring something else to the table...

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

@serkeftin The few euros are well spent.

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beardonfire@beardonfire

Shouldn’t you compare years? Like 5, 10 and 20? 1 month or even 1 years doesn’t show anything.

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Renditebremse@100erHebel

@beardonfire I have only been investing for 2.5 years

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beardonfire@beardonfire

@100erHebel I understand, I just want to say that if eurostoxx performing better this year or last 2 years it doesn’t mean that during 5 years period it still gonna be best.

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Gomerdoc@Gomerdoc

I'm happy about that. Both indices are worse than me.☺️. And that's without gold, Bitcoin and leverage...

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Renditebremse@100erHebel

@Gomerdoc A life without levers sounds very boring.

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