First day of the month, and it is worth looking at what April left behind.
The $SPY closed the month with a gain of more than +10%, a move that has only happened 14 times since 1950.
That alone shows how rare this kind of event is.
What is even more interesting is what happened next.
In those 14 cases, the market was higher 12 months later in 12 out of 14 times. That means it closed negative only 2 times.
The average return over the following 12 months was around +13.9%.
Of course, history is not a prediction or a guarantee for the future. Every period comes with different conditions such as interest rates, inflation, and geopolitical risks.
However, historically, strong monthly moves like this have often been associated with continued positive momentum.
We begin the new month with an interesting market statistic worth watching.
