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Markus
@_xempex_
8Mo·

Hello everyone,


Since the GQ AI is also reminding me that I should add #Bonds and I am basically considering whether I need this class, the following questions and considerations. What bonds are in principle is of course well known.


Do you have bonds and what is their purpose? Counterweight to shares, hedging, or more for income generation?

If income generation. In this case, I tend towards #corporate bonds, because at least they still generate decent interest income, preferably distributing.

With high-yield corporate bonds, you can certainly achieve yields in excess of 5%. But I would also manage that with dividend yields, e.g. BDCs or tobacco stocks. Do you have a real use case for bonds?

My portfolio currently consists of 99% equities and ETFs. So I would really have to buy bonds consistently for them to have a relevant influence at some point. Otherwise it would be a marginal addition and minimal change to the overall risk.

And last but not least: do you have any good ideas for #corporate bonds as ETFs? There are plenty of ETFs, e.g. IE00BG0J4957 $HYUS (-0,19 %) I found quite interesting at first glance. Or what about active funds like FU Fonds - Bonds Monthly Income $n/a (LU1960394903). I find such funds quite expensive with a TER of 1.9%.

Thanks and regards

xempex

11 Commentaires
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Epi@Epi
8Mo
First of all: just because the strange GQ AI warns you about something doesn't mean it makes sense. It marks Allin Bitcoin deposits with 10/10 for risk, Allin building society deposits with 3/10. So much for that. 😅

Otherwise, bonds are a fairly complex field. More complex than equities, and the market as a whole is also larger and more informed. Before you make any decisions, I would delve deeper into the matter. Keywords: bonds vs. bond ETFs, government bonds vs. corporate bonds, high grade vs. high yield, long duration vs. short duration, currency-hedged vs. unhedged, inflation-protected vs. nominal.

And you would have to combine all this information sensibly with an overall portfolio concept. Keywords: max return vs. min risk, correlations vs. hedging, diversification vs. concentration.

Have fun! 😁
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Markus@_xempex_
8Mo
@Epi Thank you very much. Yes, of course I wasn't serious about the AI. :D I've also noticed that some of the ratings are very questionable.
Thank you for the key points. The focus would certainly be on high-yield corporate bonds. I also read an interesting paper on this recently that was presented by Luis Pazos. :)
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Epi@Epi
8Mo
@_xempex_ If you take up a new asset class, ask yourself why and whether this goal cannot also be achieved with equities. High yield corp bonds, for example, are highly correlated with equities and pay out dividends like dividend stocks. As a private investor, I don't see any added value in the portfolio. In addition, they are currently overvalued, i.e. the spread to high grade corp bonds is historically low. So no good CRV there either.

What is generally worth considering are ETFs with long-dated government bonds. Due to the interest rate turnaround, they are 50% below their old ATHs. And they normally benefit when central banks cut interest rates quickly during an equity crash. Here you would have an asset that takes some of the risk out of the portfolio. However, I fear that this would not be a good idea in the current situation of escalating government debt.

That leaves gold. Why? Because it works like an interest-free bond with an infinite term. With 20% in your portfolio, you can reduce the maximum drawdown of a share portfolio by around 30%.
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Markus@_xempex_
8Mo
@Epi great, thank you very much! That takes some of my borrowings -Fomo out of the game now and I can deal with it in peace! :)
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Kevin E.@KevinE
8Mo
In the past, bonds were usually a stabilizer for the portfolio - the drop-downs in stock market crashes were almost always lower than for equities.

However, as I'm sitting out the crashes anyway and am not yet in the withdrawal phase, I'm sticking with equities for the time being. I may add a few shares shortly before the withdrawal phase.
I think around 30% bonds are relatively sensible for the highest possible withdrawal rate. I'd have to read up again on what the best ratio is.
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Markus@_xempex_
8Mo
@KevinC that's how i see it so far. i have my savings plans, which i stubbornly stick to. When the prices recover, I get a lot more for my money in such phases.
Until I reach 30%, I would have to either reallocate a huge amount or save it up again completely. And putting EUR 5k into a bond ETF now probably won't have any impact on the overall result.
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Kevin E.@KevinE
8Mo
@_xempex_ Yep, I'll have to reallocate too. Or I could risk it and leave them out. Of course, this could backfire if there's a prolonged crash in the first few years of retirement.
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Markus@_xempex_
8Mo
@KevinC good attitude. But you never know...maybe the bull market of a lifetime will come.
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Kevin E.@KevinE
8Mo
@_xempex_ it would be nice - but it's actually been too good to be true since 2009. It's just stupid if you only start in 2018 😅
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TheGuardian@TheGuardian
8Mo
Bonds for me a no go - I do not believe in diversification for the sake of it. I would rather choose dividend stocks/etfs (with active or passive distribution) with growth potential than bonds.
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Markus@_xempex_
8Mo
@jaykaymunich I know what you mean. And until now I always felt comfortable with almost 100% stocks/ ETF. The thought about bonds came from a podcaast I listened to recently.
But it is as you said: 6-7% yield from tobacco or BDC or reits are a reliable income source as well and adding bonds worth 5-10k EUR won't have any impact on the diversification of my portfolio. :)
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