2Année·

DO NOT IMITATE, I AM DELIBERATELY TAKING A CALCULATED RISK!!!

It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet - that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don't. It's just that simple.

Charlie Munger

Since I $TSLA (-0,19 %) is massively undervalued and $11B (-0,88 %) an asymmetric bet with massive upside potential (especially with the release of Fostpunk 2), I have decided to bring forward my savings rate and take out a loan of 15k. I am convinced that I can outperform the interest rate of 7.3% over the 5 years. Thanks to an overdraft facility, I was able to increase the amount to be invested to €18500 (I will close the overdraft facility with the next 3-4 months' salary).

My savings rate is higher than the loan repayment rate anyway and as I will have finished my doctorate in 2.5 years and will then make a significant jump in salary, I am prepared to take the risk.

I have divided this sum as follows:

7850€ in 11 bit studios
7367€ in Tesla
3000€ in Tesla KO certificate 2x leveraged
250€ in Tesla KO certificate 8x leveraged

So approx. 44% in 11 bit and 56% in Tesla

(of which 70% in shares and 30% with higher exposure)

Besides, my savings plan runs in addition to the loan installment to build up a core with:

25% MSCI World

25% MSCI EM IMI

25% MSCI European Small Cap

25% Pershing Square

I know I'm getting a lot of hate again because taking credit for an investment is absolutely NoGo (but for a car that already loses 10-20% of its value at purchase it's of course okay😄) and others will just dismiss it as gamble, but for those who understand why I'm doing it or just want to see me fall: Feel free to follow me, I will give monthly updates on how good or sh*t my credit portfolio is doing 😄

55 Commentaires

Epi@Epi

2Année

A technical question: why are you taking out an overdraft in order to leverage? You can get the same leverage via warrants or CfDs, but the borrowed capital there usually costs little more than the key interest rates.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your strategy, but to me it looks like you're giving money to the bank for no reason. In a situation where you think you have to invest every penny, that's not really understandable.

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@Epi True, warrants would probably make more sense... didn't want to buy highly leveraged KO certificates, because markets can be irrational and then you get kicked out

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Epi@Epi

2Année

@ModernThommyShelby You should have asked here BEFORE the loan... 😉

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Floriano@FlorianoPerlini

2Année

come to mauerstrassenwetten on reddit

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finance_noob2000@finance_noob2000

2Année

@FlorianoPerlini I was just thinking the same thing

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Joris@JorisInvests

2Année

Whish you the best. Losing 18500 + interest isn't the end of the world, but losing nothing is much better (remember the 2 rules from Warren Buffet about investing: rule nr1: don't lose money ; rule nr2: remember rule nr1)

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NoobHDTV@NoobHDTV

2Année

Wouldn't be able to sleep peacefully for another day, but I wish you every success! 🚀🍀

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DerMartin@DerMartin

2Année

🍿

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Das Portfoliopferd@Portfoliopferd

2Année

What exactly justifies the 11 bit rating? I'm not familiar with it, but somehow it looks very surreal

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T D.@T-Dax

2Année

@Portfoliopferd Typical games company. Revenue depends on the releases and the share price anticipates their success. Analyzing the fundamentals here on an annual basis is fruitless. With Frostpunk, 11Bit has a strong brand and a loyal following. Frostpunk 2, which will be released soon, looks promising and will probably meet expectations. There are also several new game releases in the near future. The company is also helping with publishing.

All in all, a bet on future high earnings, growing awareness and convincing work.

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Magician@income_magician_28

2Année

What if you become unemployed and or don't get your promotion?

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Sparfuchs@Reinecke

2Année

@income_magician_28 look in the Bundestag they all got their doctorates too.

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KevinE@KevinE

2Année

@income_magician_28 Promotion is relatively predictable - I think those who don't make it already know that before the defense.

Whether the salary increases afterwards is of course not as certain as it is made out to be. But in certain areas it is certainly more lucrative than being employed by the university and having to raise third-party funds.

He will already know roughly what he is doing. He can certainly cope with the 18k, gambling it away if necessary. He has apparently already answered the question of whether it makes sense to take such a high risk.

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Felix@Investor_in_Jogginghose

2Année

I have also taken out loans a few times and bought shares with them. But at 3% and without leverage. It was worth it.

Frostpunk is sure to be a good game. These games are in vogue. There's also this "steam build world" with a streampunk design. It's pretty celebrated.

I pray for you.

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@Investor_in_Jogginghose Thank you! These are bad times for a loan right now, so I was really hesitant

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Sparfuchs@Reinecke

2Année

When I buy a car, there is a planned useful life behind it, but depreciation should make up for it. Taking out a loan at 7.5% is very opportune and is actually only surpassed by the bet on $TSLA. They will probably have to drop their pants this year and put their money where their mouth is - Cybertruck/FSD/Semi because otherwise the share price will really take a beating. Good luck, but unfortunately it still reads like "weekend in Vegas with a $20,000 loan, it'll go wrong"

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kenan@shatter

2Année

Young Young Credit on speculative individual shares

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MrMister@MrMister

2Année

Now that's an action. Personally, I think Tesla is completely overvalued and due to competition such as BYD, Stellantis and co, sales and profits are falling massively.

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Daniel@Der--Investor

2Année

I was also crazy 2 years ago, 35000€ loan, first in Btc later All in Marathon Digital Holdings (BTC Mining). And it went well. Made about 150k from 35k, paid tax and paid off the loan. Now I have a +100k dividend deposit and don't take any more risks

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@Der--Investor That's exactly my goal 😍😍 You don't invest blindly and you're aware that the return opportunity costs a lot of risk, but you can do it once and then focus on not losing it again

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M47@Jiyanask

2Année

As long as you are aware.... Okay why not

Taking out a loan and buying shares is already heavy but still leveraging is negligent ^^ in the worst case you have to sit out with shares but with KO you just lose everything....

But you're aware of everything, so good luck 🙏❤️

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@Jiyanask Danke ❤️

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NiMe@NiMe

2Année

@Jiyanask and to speculate that you could pay off the loan after 2.5 years is insane. why not wait 4 years and gamble with your own money?

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M47@Jiyanask

2Année

@NiMe as long as you are aware that you are taking a damn high risk... 🤷🏾‍♂️

The problem is that if it works, you take an even higher risk until it collapses.... very few people stop

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Alexxela@Alexxela

2Année

I can understand that. In your case at least you are betting on a mega-cap, I have "invested" my loan in an OTC cannabis company, which has now been delisted for over a year and the loss is 100%. But hope dies last...

What I want to say: if you can live with a (worst case) total loss, then go for it !

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Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner

2Année

One quote does not make a Charlie Munger!

Here are 3 questions:
What did you actually tell the bank why you need the 7.5% loan?
How high is your overdraft?
How often have you watched The Big Short?

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@Dividenden-Penner I didn't presume to. I was more inspired by him.
It was a loan for free use. Overdraft facility 3000€
Watched The Big Short mind. 3x

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Shoot@Shoot

2Année

All well and good, but Tesla 🙈

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Macho M.@MachoMan

2Année

Good luck

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Daniel@OKH

2Année

No risk no fun! Good luck 👍

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Joshy@Joshy

2Année

Good luck then 🚀 I'm looking forward to it

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aksmallz@aksmallz

2Année

Keep your fingers crossed 👍🏽

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schnischnaschnappi@schnischnaschnappi

2Année

*How to lose money(fast)* 💵 ❌
You might as well go to the casino and bet everything on red at roulette. Sustainable investments and possibly a small gambling position are the right way to go. Red numbers eat away the return excessively (to be +-0 again at -80% you have to make up 400%). If you don't have the patience for long-term investments, you just have to go for it.

If you don't want to listen, you have to feel🥸
I hope you have dealt with the risks. All the best🫡

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@schnischnaschnappi Thanks for the prejudgement. Of course I didn't analyze the stocks but just picked them via random-stock-picker and shot them in

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schnischnaschnappi@schnischnaschnappi

2Année

@ModernThommyShelby I can still remember your last post with big Tesla losses. bad analysis last time? Better this time? Or simply learned nothing last time? We will see. 😎

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@schnischnaschnappi nope, had too much leverage, didn't think the price would go down so much. Doesn't change the true value of Tesla, in the long term we will see a new ATH (in my opinion).

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Bestcapitalinvest@BestCapitalInvest

2Année

I bought a property on credit ... everyone can leverage as they like 😎

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Année

PLEASE
PLEASE
Do it like a trader.
Set a stop loss and take profit and execute them coldly. Do not decide emotionally when and how you are satisfied.

It can work (whether out of luck or because the strategy is good... K.a.) depending on where you go out. I am long to 230$

https://www.tradingview.com/x/U1ArWghx

It has to be said that

1. one credit
2. different long trade executions of different types in a single strategy
3. your reasoning

Not arguing that you should do this. To put it nicely.
Gambling is stupid.

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@leveragegrinding 1. no comment 2. different long execution because the one with higher leverage is held shorter term (up to 299$) 3. do you mean the rationale for the selected companies or doing the whole thing at all?

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Année

@ModernThommyShelby there are so many things open bro
Or at least they are not in the article

What would be your SL? Risk hedging? Floor?

Why don't you pay 1k and buy a prop trading challenge, if you pass it with the trade you can seriously try again afterwards and have calculable risk and reward

Going long Tesla with credit in the current market situation for 3 different periods is easy....
I have no idea.
Stupid?
Completely wild?
Unnecessary?

Most likely pure gambling. Risk management means 2% portfolio risk per trade and then making real money over time. Don't bet everything and don't take a 40% credit🫨

So if you know what you're doing, go for it, if not
Just save yourself the risk😂😂

As you can see, my head is bursting a little:

First and foremost, take a loan and then invest the largest amount in an unleveraged position for the medium term... You don't do that, if then you trade the market movement with the money ANYWAY, you manage with a little effort.
The whole credit risk for then medium-term buy and hold really makes no sense to me.

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Année

@ModernThommyShelby and the comparison to the car is a big problem, comparing expected returns on investments with the costs of maintaining a network object makes 0 sense, especially when it comes to a loan. One exists for a purpose, the other fulfills the purpose of the return, so a car fulfills its purpose, a loan for gambling does not necessarily.

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@leveragegrinding I can't predict market movements, so I don't even try to trade them. I am simply convinced that the intrinsic value of Tesla is far above the current share value, the future looks much brighter than 2-3 years ago when the share price was over 400$. Mainly responsible for the price drop were the massive price cuts, which will hurt in the short term and have severely impacted margins, but in the long term consolidates Tesla's strong market position because they are the only ones profitable at these prices. In addition, the lack of delivery expectations in the last quarterly figures and the current low-growth phase, although this will accelerate again due to Cybertruck and above all the 25k compact Tesla. That's why I'm trying to have as much exposure as possible in order to profit as much as possible from the price increase. Unfortunately I don't have a crystal ball.

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Moritz@leveragegrinding

2Année

@ModernThommyShelby understand. Now regardless of the fact that I see it the same way with Tesla from a technical point of view and would go through with the trade (has nothing to do with a crystal ball but probability calculation by the way, even if the mainstream doesn't understand this because it doesn't deal with it), what prevents the Tesla price from not reflecting the true value for another 3 years? There is no law that stipulates how long stock market prices can remain unrealistic.

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David@ModernThommyShelby

2Année

@leveragegrinding Oh, forgot to answer. By crystal ball I meant that you can never know 100%, especially if you have no idea about TA like me.
It is very possible that Tesla will not reflect the true value for another 3 or 4 years ("markets can stay longer irrational than you can stay liquid") but it can also go up unexpectedly within a very short time (like yesterday over 6%) so I prefer time-the-market.

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Michael Me@Michimessi

2Année

Please update once a month how things are going! Good luck!

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CD@Carpe-Diem

2Année

You should better accept the offer of the widow of the ex-king of Malawi...

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TCS@TCS

1Année

Good morning. Can you give us an update? I wanted to follow this. Thank you.

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Dogg@Dogg

1Année

Best man!

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T D.@T-Dax

1Année

What is the current status? Have you already sold 11Bit or are you buying new shares now? I threw out my shares at 125 for the time being and am standing on the sidelines. How are you doing?

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