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David
@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo·

DO NOT IMITATE, I AM DELIBERATELY TAKING A CALCULATED RISK!!!


It's not given to human beings to have such talent that they can just know everything about everything all the time. But it is given to human beings who work hard at it - who look and sift the world for a mispriced bet - that they can occasionally find one. And the wise ones bet heavily when the world offers them that opportunity. They bet big when they have the odds. And the rest of the time they don't. It's just that simple.


Charlie Munger


Since I $TSLA (+0,17 %) is massively undervalued and $11B (+0 %) an asymmetric bet with massive upside potential (especially with the release of Fostpunk 2), I have decided to bring forward my savings rate and take out a loan of 15k. I am convinced that I can outperform the interest rate of 7.3% over the 5 years. Thanks to an overdraft facility, I was able to increase the amount to be invested to €18500 (I will close the overdraft facility with the next 3-4 months' salary).

My savings rate is higher than the loan repayment rate anyway and as I will have finished my doctorate in 2.5 years and will then make a significant jump in salary, I am prepared to take the risk.


I have divided this sum as follows:


  • 7850€ in 11 bit studios
  • 7367€ in Tesla
  • 3000€ in Tesla KO certificate 2x leveraged
  • 250€ in Tesla KO certificate 8x leveraged



So approx. 44% in 11 bit and 56% in Tesla

(of which 70% in shares and 30% with higher exposure)


Besides, my savings plan runs in addition to the loan installment to build up a core with:

25% MSCI World

25% MSCI EM IMI

25% MSCI European Small Cap

25% Pershing Square


I know I'm getting a lot of hate again because taking credit for an investment is absolutely NoGo (but for a car that already loses 10-20% of its value at purchase it's of course okay😄) and others will just dismiss it as gamble, but for those who understand why I'm doing it or just want to see me fall: Feel free to follow me, I will give monthly updates on how good or sh*t my credit portfolio is doing 😄

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63 Commentaires
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GeldmitKopf@cashwithhead
11Mo
So I also have a loan to buy, but KO certificates are tough.
Good luck
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GeldmitKopf@cashwithhead
11Mo
@cashwithhead I don't use the credit yet, however, it's only for international purchases
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GeldmitKopf@cashwithhead
11Mo
@cashwithhead I would also say undervalued at 169 and fair value at 175.
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GeldmitKopf@cashwithhead
11Mo
@cashwithhead but everyone has a different view of the business, I just don't see the robo fleet as strong as others
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@cashwithhead Thanks, you too 💪 My base case is over 500 😄😄 thanks to the FSD and Optimus and also the energy saving, which in my opinion is completely underestimated in the valuation
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Epi@Epi
11Mo
A technical question: why are you taking out an overdraft in order to leverage? You can get the same leverage via warrants or CfDs, but the borrowed capital there usually costs little more than the key interest rates.
Maybe I'm misunderstanding your strategy, but to me it looks like you're giving money to the bank for no reason. In a situation where you think you have to invest every penny, that's not really understandable.
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@Epi True, warrants would probably make more sense... didn't want to buy highly leveraged KO certificates, because markets can be irrational and then you get kicked out
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Epi@Epi
11Mo
@ModernThommyShelby You should have asked here BEFORE the loan... 😉
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Floriano@FlorianoPerlini
11Mo
come to mauerstrassenwetten on reddit
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finance_noob2000@finance_noob2000
11Mo
@FlorianoPerlini I was just thinking the same thing
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Joris@JorisInvests
11Mo
Whish you the best. Losing 18500 + interest isn't the end of the world, but losing nothing is much better (remember the 2 rules from Warren Buffet about investing: rule nr1: don't lose money ; rule nr2: remember rule nr1)
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NoobHDTV@NoobHDTV
11Mo
Wouldn't be able to sleep peacefully for another day, but I wish you every success! 🚀🍀
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DerMartin@DerMartin
11Mo
🍿
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the_investing_otter@the_investing_otter
11Mo
I read the post and immediately opened a short position
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Magician@income_magician_28
11Mo
What if you become unemployed and or don't get your promotion?
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Sparfuchs@Reinecke
11Mo
@income_magician_28 look in the Bundestag they all got their doctorates too.
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Kevin E.@KevinE
11Mo
@income_magician_28 Promotion is relatively predictable - I think those who don't make it already know that before the defense.

Whether the salary increases afterwards is of course not as certain as it is made out to be. But in certain areas it is certainly more lucrative than being employed by the university and having to raise third-party funds.

He will already know roughly what he is doing. He can certainly cope with the 18k, gambling it away if necessary. He has apparently already answered the question of whether it makes sense to take such a high risk.
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Das Portfoliopferd@Portfoliopferd
11Mo
What exactly justifies the 11 bit rating? I'm not familiar with it, but somehow it looks very surreal
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T D.@T-Dax
11Mo
@Portfoliopferd Typical games company. Revenue depends on the releases and the share price anticipates their success. Analyzing the fundamentals here on an annual basis is fruitless. With Frostpunk, 11Bit has a strong brand and a loyal following. Frostpunk 2, which will be released soon, looks promising and will probably meet expectations. There are also several new game releases in the near future. The company is also helping with publishing.

All in all, a bet on future high earnings, growing awareness and convincing work.
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Felix@Investor_in_Jogginghose
11Mo
I have also taken out loans a few times and bought shares with them. But at 3% and without leverage. It was worth it.

Frostpunk is sure to be a good game. These games are in vogue. There's also this "steam build world" with a streampunk design. It's pretty celebrated.

I pray for you.
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@Investor_in_Jogginghose Thank you! These are bad times for a loan right now, so I was really hesitant
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Sparfuchs@Reinecke
11Mo
When I buy a car, there is a planned useful life behind it, but depreciation should make up for it. Taking out a loan at 7.5% is very opportune and is actually only surpassed by the bet on $TSLA. They will probably have to drop their pants this year and put their money where their mouth is - Cybertruck/FSD/Semi because otherwise the share price will really take a beating. Good luck, but unfortunately it still reads like "weekend in Vegas with a $20,000 loan, it'll go wrong"
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kenan@shatter
11Mo
Young Young Credit on speculative individual shares
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MrMister@MrMister
11Mo
Now that's an action. Personally, I think Tesla is completely overvalued and due to competition such as BYD, Stellantis and co, sales and profits are falling massively.
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Daniel@Der--Investor
11Mo
I was also crazy 2 years ago, 35000€ loan, first in Btc later All in Marathon Digital Holdings (BTC Mining). And it went well. Made about 150k from 35k, paid tax and paid off the loan. Now I have a +100k dividend deposit and don't take any more risks
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@Der--Investor That's exactly my goal 😍😍 You don't invest blindly and you're aware that the return opportunity costs a lot of risk, but you can do it once and then focus on not losing it again
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M47@Jiyanask
11Mo
As long as you are aware.... Okay why not

Taking out a loan and buying shares is already heavy but still leveraging is negligent ^^ in the worst case you have to sit out with shares but with KO you just lose everything....

But you're aware of everything, so good luck 🙏❤️
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@Jiyanask Danke ❤️
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NiMe@NiMe
11Mo
@Jiyanask and to speculate that you could pay off the loan after 2.5 years is insane. why not wait 4 years and gamble with your own money?
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M47@Jiyanask
11Mo
@NiMe as long as you are aware that you are taking a damn high risk... 🤷🏾‍♂️

The problem is that if it works, you take an even higher risk until it collapses.... very few people stop
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Alexxela@Alexxela
11Mo
I can understand that. In your case at least you are betting on a mega-cap, I have "invested" my loan in an OTC cannabis company, which has now been delisted for over a year and the loss is 100%. But hope dies last...

What I want to say: if you can live with a (worst case) total loss, then go for it !
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Dividenden-Penner@Dividenden-Penner
11Mo
One quote does not make a Charlie Munger!

Here are 3 questions:
What did you actually tell the bank why you need the 7.5% loan?
How high is your overdraft?
How often have you watched The Big Short?
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@Dividenden-Penner I didn't presume to. I was more inspired by him.
It was a loan for free use. Overdraft facility 3000€
Watched The Big Short mind. 3x
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Shoot@Shoot
11Mo
All well and good, but Tesla 🙈
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Macho Man@MachoMan
11Mo
Good luck
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Daniel@OKH
11Mo
No risk no fun! Good luck 👍
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Joshy@Joshy
11Mo
Good luck then 🚀 I'm looking forward to it
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aksmallz@aksmallz
11Mo
Keep your fingers crossed 👍🏽
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schnischnaschnappi@schnischnaschnappi
11Mo
*How to lose money(fast)* 💵 ❌
You might as well go to the casino and bet everything on red at roulette. Sustainable investments and possibly a small gambling position are the right way to go. Red numbers eat away the return excessively (to be +-0 again at -80% you have to make up 400%). If you don't have the patience for long-term investments, you just have to go for it.

If you don't want to listen, you have to feel🥸
I hope you have dealt with the risks. All the best🫡
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@schnischnaschnappi Thanks for the prejudgement. Of course I didn't analyze the stocks but just picked them via random-stock-picker and shot them in
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schnischnaschnappi@schnischnaschnappi
11Mo
@ModernThommyShelby I can still remember your last post with big Tesla losses. bad analysis last time? Better this time? Or simply learned nothing last time? We will see. 😎
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David@ModernThommyShelby
11Mo
@schnischnaschnappi nope, had too much leverage, didn't think the price would go down so much. Doesn't change the true value of Tesla, in the long term we will see a new ATH (in my opinion).
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ToKo B.@user30e050a38a574a2b
11Mo
A classic case of "greed eats brains".
But I hope the best for you.
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Voir toutes les 2 autres réponses
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Bestcapitalinvest@BestCapitalInvest
11Mo
I bought a property on credit ... everyone can leverage as they like 😎
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Moritz@leveragegrinding
11Mo
PLEASE
PLEASE
Do it like a trader.
Set a stop loss and take profit and execute them coldly. Do not decide emotionally when and how you are satisfied.

It can work (whether out of luck or because the strategy is good... K.a.) depending on where you go out. I am long to 230$

https://www.tradingview.com/x/U1ArWghx

It has to be said that

1. one credit
2. different long trade executions of different types in a single strategy
3. your reasoning

Not arguing that you should do this. To put it nicely.
Gambling is stupid.
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Voir toutes les 6 autres réponses
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Michael Me@Michimessi
11Mo
Please update once a month how things are going! Good luck!
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CD@Carpe-Diem
11Mo
You should better accept the offer of the widow of the ex-king of Malawi...
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Hans M.@kwarzel
11Mo
Buy on credit, why not, KO certificate also okay, but a 2-fold leverage, well. It's better to throw the money for the 8x leveraged certificate against the wall, at least then you'll hear it ring. These certificates are only good for day trading, with longer holding periods they almost always go to zero, especially with shares that swing back and forth indecisively. Money printing machines for the banks.
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TCS@TCS
10Mo
Good morning. Can you give us an update? I wanted to follow this. Thank you.
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