Summary
Profits Fall, Merger Speculation Rises: On October 21, 2026, after the U.S. stock market closed, Tesla reported third-quarter revenue of $28.05 billion (flat) and net income of $787 million for the third quarter; adjusted EPS of $0.48 exceeded the consensus estimate of $0.43 to $0.45. The stock closed at $374.57 (−3.08%) on October 22, about 25% below the 52-week high of $498.83 and about 26% above the 52-week low of $297.38, with a P/E ratio of 416.80. Free cash flow was approximately $1.5 billion (−62% year-over-year), and the 2026 Capex target was lowered from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion. At the same time, Tesla and SpaceX are exploring a potential merger through special committees, with no terms or guarantees. The average price target is $415.07; of 47 analysts, 26 recommend buying, 16 recommend holding, and 5 recommend selling.
Key Points
Price: $374.57 (Oct. 22, 2026), about 25% below the 52-week high ($498.83), about 26% above the 52-week low ($297.38) Q3 2026: Revenue: $28.05 billion, net income: $787 million, adjusted EPS: $0.48, free cash flow: approximately $1.5 billionSegments: Automotive: $20.56 billion (−3%), Services: $4.61 billion (+33%), Energy: $2.88 billion (−16%)Merger: Special committees at Tesla and SpaceX; no terms disclosed; Barclays sees an announcement before December 3 as possible. Analysts: Average price target $415.07 (range $24.86 to $550), UBS $425, BNP Paribas $420, JPMorgan $415 Valuation: P/E ratio 416.80, no dividend, 2026 Capex target approx. $20 billion Next date: Annual Shareholders’ Meeting on Dec. 3, 2026; Q4 results not yet confirmed
What are Tesla’s current key metrics?
Tesla stock is trading at $374.57, about 25% below its 52-week high, with an average price target of $415.07, a P/E ratio of 416.80, and Q3 revenue of $28.05 billion.
Key FigureValueDate
Price (NASDAQ: TSLA)
$374.57 (−3.08%)
Oct. 22, 2026
Closing price prior to earnings (calculated)
approx. $386.48 (+3.4%)
October 21, 2026
52-week high
$498.83
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52-week low
$297.38
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Distance from 52-week high
approx. −25%
Oct. 22, 2026
Distance from 52-week low
approx. +26%
Oct. 22, 2026
Current P/E ratio
416.80
Oct. 23, 2026
Market Capitalization
approx. $1.5 trillion
Oct. 22, 2026
Q3 2026 Revenue
$28.05 billion (flat)
Oct. 21, 2026
Q3 2026 Net Income
$787 million (−29% year-over-year), adjusted EPS $0.48
October 21, 2026
Q3 2026 Free Cash Flow
approx. $1.5 billion (−62% year-over-year)
October 21, 2026
2026 Capex Target
approx. $20 billion (previously over $25 billion)
Oct. 21, 2026
Q3 2026 Deliveries
486,532 vehicles (−2% year-over-year)
Oct. 2026
Dividend
None
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Analyst Ratings (47 firms)
26 Buy, 16 Hold, 5 Sell
October 21, 2026
Average Price Target
$415.07, approx. +11% (range $24.86 to $550)
October 21, 2026
Individual Price Targets
UBS $425, BNP Paribas $420, JPMorgan $415, Morgan Stanley $400, Barclays $370, Goldman Sachs $360
Oct. 2026
WKN / ISIN / Ticker
A1CX3T / US88160R1014 / TSLA
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Upcoming Event
Annual Shareholders’ Meeting Dec. 3, 2026; Q4 earnings not yet confirmed
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What news is currently driving Tesla stock?
The most important news about Tesla stock from the past few weeks at a glance. The table below also shows how an IPO and lock-up periods affect Musk’s stock: SpaceX Aktie:
Date | News | Details | Assessment
October 22, 2026
BNP Paribas and UBS raise price targets
BNP Paribas upgrades from “Underperform” to “Neutral” and raises the target from $266 to $420, partly due to the potential SpaceX acquisition. UBS raises its target from $391 to $425 (Neutral). The stock closes at $374.57 (−3.08%).
Bullish
October 21, 2026
Q3: Profit down, cash flow positive, Capex target lowered
Revenue: $28.05 billion (flat), net income $787 million, adjusted EPS $0.48 (consensus $0.43 to $0.45), free cash flow approximately $1.5 billion. 2026 Capex target lowered from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion. Down about −3% in after-hours trading.
Watch
Oct. 21, 2026
Musk confirms special committees for merger with SpaceX
Both companies are exploring a potential merger through special committees, with no terms and no guarantees. Musk declined to discuss the matter during the conference call. The stock rose 3.4% ahead of the earnings report.
Very bullish
October 15, 2026
Roadster presentation: Production not until 2028
Tesla unveils the new Roadster with cold gas thrusters in Texas; production is set to begin in 2028. The stock closes at $362.44 (−1.3%). Barclays believes a merger announcement is possible before the annual shareholders’ meeting on December 3.
Watch
Early Oct. 2026
Q3 deliveries exceed expectations
Tesla delivers 486,532 vehicles (−2% year-over-year, 22,141 more than produced) and installs 13.7 GWh of energy storage.
Bullish
September 29, 2026
Credit lines totaling over $30 billion agreed upon
Tesla secures a $20 billion credit facility as well as credit lines of $8 billion and $2 billion. Nothing has been drawn down so far, and according to the announcement, no drawdowns are planned for 2026.
Watch
July 22, 2026
Q2: Free Cash Flow Negative for the First Time in Over Two Years
Revenue of $28.24 billion, adjusted EPS of $0.33, free cash flow of −$1.09 billion with Capex of $5.79 billion (+142%).
Bearish
What does Tesla do—and how does the company make its money?
Company Description
The Tesla stock (ISIN: US88160R1014, WKN: A1CX3T) represents Tesla, Inc. of Austin, Texas—Elon Musk’s electric car manufacturer, which also operates energy storage, software, and robotics projects. In the third quarter of 2026, Tesla generated revenue of $28.05 billion, a net profit of $787 million, and delivered 486,532 vehicles.
How Tesla actually makes money:
Automotive: The largest segment, with $20.56 billion in revenue in the third quarter (down 3% year-over-year), accounting for approximately 73% of consolidated revenue. The gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, rose to 18.1% (up from 15.4%). Musk is aiming for around 5 million vehicles per year by about 2030; in 2025, the figure was approximately 1.65 million. Services and Other: $4.61 billion in revenue (+33% compared to the previous year), including software such as FSD (Full Self-Driving): 1.74 million active subscriptions (+67%); over 75% of new vehicles delivered in North America included a subscription. Energy: Residential energy storage with $2.88 billion in revenue (−16% compared to the previous year); in the third quarter, Tesla installed 13.7 GWh. Future Projects: Robotaxi and Cybercab (according to Tesla, the Cybercab is expected to make a noticeable contribution to earnings starting in 2027; over 800 vehicles are registered for autonomous services in Texas), the Optimus robot, and the Terafab chip project with SpaceX in Austin. How AI-driven autonomy is valued is also illustrated by the Palantir Aktie
fundamental analysis: How much of the future is already priced into Tesla’s stock?
Fundamental Analysis of Tesla Stock (as of October 23, 2026)
Extremely expensive if you look only at earnings: At $374.57, the P/E ratio stands at 416.80, and the stock is trading about 25% below its 52-week high. I do not have a comparison with the 10-year average for Tesla. The net income of $787 million (GAAP) is small relative to the market capitalization of approximately $1.5 trillion; the valuation hinges on robotaxis, Optimus, and energy.
Growth and Margins: Revenue in the third quarter was $28.05 billion (previous year: $28.24 billion, flat); Automotive revenue fell by 3%, Energy by 16%, and Services rose by 33%. On the positive side: The automotive gross margin, excluding regulatory credits, rose from 15.4% to 18.1%. Net income of $787 million is, on a reported basis, 29% below the $1.11 billion from the prior year; some reports cite a decline of 43%. Adjusted EPS of $0.48 exceeded the consensus estimate, while GAAP EPS was $0.22.
Cash Flow and Investments: Free cash flow was approximately $1.5 billion, down 62% from the previous year ($4.02 billion), but well above the expected negative $4.9 billion. In the second quarter, it was negative at −$1.09 billion for the first time in over two years. The Capex target for 2026 fell from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion; Q3 investments ranged from $3.7 billion to $4.7 billion, depending on the source. CFO Vaibhav Taneja plans to finance the investments primarily from operating cash flow. In addition, on September 29, Tesla secured credit lines totaling $30 billion, which remain unused. The amount of capital required for growth in the energy sector is also illustrated by the Bloom Energy Aktie.
Merger with SpaceX: Both companies are exploring a potential merger through special committees. The valuation, exchange ratio, and protection of minority shareholders remain to be determined; Musk holds just under one-fifth of Tesla and controls the voting rights at SpaceX. The combined market capitalization stands at around $3.5 trillion. Musk cites AI software, chip design, robotics, satellite infrastructure, and data centers in space as areas for collaboration. BNP Paribas cites the potential acquisition as the reason for upgrading its rating to “Neutral.” A merger has neither been decided nor negotiated.
Risks: Revenue is stagnating, deliveries are down 2% from the previous year, and the valuation already factors in successes with robotaxis and Optimus. Morgan Stanley (Hold) sees opportunities in demand, energy, and robotaxis, but urges caution regarding Optimus, investments, and cash burn.
Tesla Stock Price Targets and 2026 Forecast
How is the Tesla stock price performing? (As of October 23, 2026)
According to MarketBeat, the average price target for Tesla stock is $415.07; 26 out of 47 analysts recommend buying, 16 recommend holding, and 5 recommend selling. The range extends from $24.86 (GLJ Research, Sell) to $550 (Tigress Financial, Buy). Following the earnings report, BNP Paribas raised its target from $266 to $420 (Neutral), and UBS from $391 to $425 (Neutral). Other targets: JPMorgan $415 (Buy, Oct. 16), Morgan Stanley $400 (Hold), Barclays $370 (Hold), Goldman Sachs $360 (Hold, Sept. 15), and Evercore ISI $300 (Hold). The outlook for the stock hinges on the merger issue, progress with Robotaxi and Cybercab, and whether free cash flow will hold up after a strong third quarter.
The stock’s price movement reflects its volatility: the 52-week high is $498.83, and the low is $297.38. During “Roadster Week,” the stock closed at $367.16 (Oct. 14) and $362.44 (Oct. 15), on October 20 at $373.71; on October 21, it jumped 3.4% to approximately $386; and following the earnings report on October 22, it fell 3.08% to $374.57. According to MarketBeat, the 200-day moving average is $376.97, and the 50-day moving average is $361.54. Just how difficult things are for automakers right now is also evident from the Porsche Aktie.
Key price levels:
52-week high: $498.83Current price: $374.57 (Nasdaq close on Oct. 22, 2026)First resistance level: approx. $90 (closing price on Oct. 21)Second resistance level: $498.83 (all-time high)Analysts’ price targets: Average: 415.07 USD, UBS: 425 USD, BNP Paribas: 420 USD, JPMorgan: 415 USD, Morgan Stanley: 400 USD, Goldman Sachs: 360 USDCritical support level: Closing prices below 3,401 USD (close on Oct. 20) would reverse the pre-earnings rally
Chart Analysis
Tesla stock has been noticeably volatile in recent weeks. This is not only due to the quarterly earnings that were announced, but also because the merger issue is now in the spotlight. If the $390 resistance level is decisively broken to the upside, a significant rise to the record high of $499.83 is possible.
However, if the $340 support zone is breached to the downside, I consider price levels around $300 to be possible. In the short term, Tesla shares are trading right within the aforementioned zone, which is why the outlook is currently neutral, with a slight bias toward upward momentum.
Conclusion: Should you buy Tesla stock now or wait?
Buy Tesla now? Adjusted EPS beat consensus, free cash flow was a positive surprise, the Capex target is falling, and the potential SpaceX merger is fueling speculation that’s prompting analysts like BNP Paribas and UBS to raise their price targets. At the same time, profits are falling, revenue is stagnating, and with a P/E ratio of 416.80, the future—with robotaxis, Optimus, and the merger—must justify the price. The range from $24.86 to $550 illustrates just how far price targets can diverge from reality.
Those who believe in the merger and the robotaxi narrative will find a price of $374.57—about 25% below the 52-week high and in line with an average analyst target of $415.07. Those who remain cautious will wait for the merger decision and the next earnings report, watching to see if the stock breaks back above the resistance level at approximately $386 and holds the $373.71 mark. Personally, I consider a merger very likely, which is why a typical premium of 15–20% over the current price for Tesla stock is possible once the merger announcement is made.
✅ Opportunities
⚠️ Risks
- Adjusted EPS of $0.48 above the consensus ($0.43 to $0.45), free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion
- Automotive gross margin excluding regulatory credits: 18.1% (previously 15.4%); Services: +33%
- Merger with SpaceX under review: Special committees formed; Barclays considers an announcement before December possible
- Capex target lowered to approximately $20 billion; over $30 billion in credit lines remain unused
- FSD has 1.74 million active subscriptions (+67%); Cybercab contribution expected starting in 2027
- Average price target of $415.07 (approx. +11%); BNP Paribas and UBS raise targets to $420 and $425, respectively
- Net income of only $787 million at a P/E ratio of 416.80; revenue flat; free cash flow down 62% year-over-year
- Automotive revenue down 3%, Energy revenue down 16%, deliveries down 2% year-over-year
- Merger with no terms or guarantees; valuation, exchange ratio, and minority protection still undecided
- Heavy investment in Optimus, robotaxis, and chips; Capex remains at approximately $20 billion
- Analysts are divided: 16 Hold, 5 Sell; target price range from $24.86 to $550
- Roadster not until 2028 and, according to Musk, not a significant business driver
FAQ: Frequently Asked Questions About Tesla Stock
Is Tesla stock a buy in 2026?
Analysts are divided: According to MarketBeat, out of 47 analysts, 26 recommend buying, 16 recommend holding, and 5 recommend selling; the average price target is $415.07, which is about 11% above the current price of $374.57. Factors supporting this include adjusted EPS above the consensus, free cash flow of approximately $1.5 billion, and the merger speculation with SpaceX. On the other hand, the stock has a P/E ratio of 416.80, net income of only $787 million, declining deliveries, and free cash flow that has fallen by 62% compared to the previous year.
Why did Tesla’s stock price fall?
Following the Q3 earnings report on October 21, the stock fell by about 3% in after-hours trading and closed at $374.57 on October 22 (−3.08%). Revenue remained flat at $28.05 billion, net income fell to $787 million (−29% compared to $1.11 billion; some reports cite −43%), and deliveries were 2% below the previous year’s level. Prior to the earnings release, the stock had risen 3.4% to approximately $386 on October 21, partly due to merger speculation.
What is the price target for Tesla stock?
According to MarketBeat, the average price target is $415.07 (based on 47 analysts). The range extends from $24.86 (GLJ Research, Sell) to $550 (Tigress Financial, Buy). Following the earnings report, BNP Paribas raised its target from $266 to $420 (Neutral), and UBS raised its target from $391 to $425 (Neutral). Other price targets: JPMorgan $415 (Buy), Morgan Stanley $400 (Hold), Barclays $370 (Hold), Goldman Sachs $360 (Hold).
What is the forecast for Tesla stock in 2026?
Tesla does not provide a specific earnings forecast. Management lowered the 2026 Capex target from over $25 billion to approximately $20 billion and plans to finance the majority of the investments from operating cash flow. Musk cites a target of around 5 million vehicles per year by about 2030 (2025: approx. 1.65 million), with the Cybercab expected to make a noticeable contribution starting in 2027. Analysts’ forecasts range from $24.86 to $550.
When will Tesla release its next earnings report?
The Q3 results were released on October 21, 2026, after the U.S. stock market closed, with the earnings call following that same evening. A confirmed date for the Q4 results has not yet been announced. According to reports, the annual shareholders’ meeting will take place on December 3, 2026.
How much does Tesla pay in dividends?
Tesla does not pay a dividend. The company is investing in robotaxis, Optimus, and computing power; the Capex target for 2026 is approximately $20 billion, and free cash flow in the third quarter was approximately $1.5 billion.
How does Tesla make money?
Tesla generates revenue in three areas: Automotive (electric cars, $20.56 billion in the third quarter, −3%), Services and Other ($4.61 billion, +33%), and Energy (storage, $2.88 billion, −16%). Total revenue was $28.05 billion; in the third quarter, Tesla delivered 486,532 vehicles and installed 13.7 GWh of energy storage.
What is known about the merger of Tesla and SpaceX?
According to Musk, both companies have formed special committees with independent board members to evaluate a potential merger. No terms have been negotiated, and there are no guarantees. The valuation, exchange ratio, and protection of minority shareholders remain to be determined. Barclays believes an announcement could come before Tesla’s annual shareholder meeting on December 3. The combined market capitalization is approximately $3.5 trillion.
What is known about the new Tesla Roadster?
Tesla unveiled the redesigned Roadster on October 15, 2026, in Texas, featuring cold gas thrusters for jumps and mid-air maneuvers. According to Musk, production is set to begin in 2028. Tesla has not disclosed a binding purchase price. Musk said the Roadster is not a major business driver; Optimus and Cybercab are expected to account for the bulk of the value.
How likely do you think a merger between $SPCX (-2,64 %) and $TSLA (-1,14 %) ?
