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StupidRich · 2021-12-21T09:01:02.081850Z

Mein erster Post, bitte nicht zu viel Hate. ViacomCBS ist mein zweitgrößter Trade und soll weiter aufgestockt werden. Die Meinung sollte also auch hinterfragt werden. Was ist das Geschäftsmodell von ViacomCBS? ViacomCBS ist ein Medienkonzern, entstanden durch die Fusion von Viacom mit der CBS Corporation. Umsatz machen also Fernsehsender (CBS), Cable Networks (Showtime, MTV, Nickelodeon usw), Fernsehstudios (Paramount Pictures) und Streaming-Angebote (Paramount+, PlutoTV). Kurz zu den Kennzahlen: Market Cap: ~19 Milliarden KGV: 7 KUV: 0,67 Dividendenrendite: 3,43% KGV und KUV sind weit unter dem historischen Durchschnitt, die Dividendenrendite ist weit drüber. Die Aktie ist meiner Meinung nach also auch ohne die Wachstumschancen unterbewertet. Warum ist die Aktie so billig? Kursverlauf sieht scheiße aus, meiner Meinung nach Nachwirkungen vom Archegos Debakel. Was sind die Wachstumschancen? Während die Segmente TV und Cable Networks eher seitwärts laufen, wächst der Streaming Bereich stark. Im Q3 2021 ist der Umsatz im Segment Streaming YoY 62% gewachsen. Die Umsätze mit Streaming-Abos sogar um 79%. Wichtig zu verstehen ist hierbei, dass die Streaming Angebote von ViacomCBS noch recht neu sind und bestehende Märkte noch nicht voll ausgereizt haben (was man an den Wachstumszahlen sieht) und selbst in Kernmärkten wie Europa noch nicht verfügbar sind. Paramount+ wird 2022 in vielen Ländern Europas, auch in Deutschland, eingeführt. Was ist mein Fazit? Wir haben hier eine nach allen Maßstäben sehr billige Aktie (KGV 7 bei einer Dividendenrendite von 3,43%). Der Konzern ist gut im Medienbereich diversifiziert und hat starke Wachstumschancen im Bereich Streaming, welcher 2022/2023 jeweils um 40/50% wachsen kann/wird, dies zeigt das bisherige Wachstum und der Eintritt in neue Märkte wie Europa. Es gibt, aufgrund der Bewertung und der sicheren Dividende so gut wie kein downside mehr, wächst der Streaming Bereich aber weiter gut und die Aktie wird nur annähernd so bewertet wie die Peer Group, gibt es enormes Potenzial. Außerdem ist ViacomCBS auch ein guter Übernahmekandidat, was für die Anteilseigner auch enormes Potenzial bietet.

My first post, please not too much hate. ViacomCBS is my second largest trade and should be added to. So the opinion should also be questioned.

What is ViacomCBS's business model? ViacomCBS is a media conglomerate, formed by the merger of Viacom with CBS Corporation. Revenues are generated by television channels (CBS), cable networks (Showtime, MTV, Nickelodeon, etc.), television studios (Paramount Pictures) and streaming services (Paramount+, PlutoTV).

Briefly about the key figures:

Market Cap: ~19 billion

P/E RATIO: 7

KUV: 0.67

Dividend yield: 3.43

P/E and KUV are well below historical average, dividend yield is well above. So, in my opinion, the stock is undervalued even without the growth opportunities.

Why is the stock so cheap? Price performance looks like shit, in my opinion aftermath of the Archegos debacle.

What are the growth opportunities? While the TV and Cable Networks segments are running sideways, the Streaming segment is growing strongly. In Q3 2021, revenue in the Streaming YoY segment grew 62%. Streaming subscription revenues even grew by 79%. The important thing to understand here is that ViacomCBS' streaming offerings are still fairly new and have not yet fully exploited existing markets (which can be seen in the growth numbers) and are not yet available even in core markets like Europe. Paramount+ will be launched in many countries in Europe, including Germany, in 2022.

What's my bottom line? We have here a very cheap stock by any standards (P/E 7 with a dividend yield of 3.43%). The group is well diversified in the media space and has strong growth opportunities in streaming, which can/will grow 40/50% in each of 2022/2023, as evidenced by growth to date and entry into new markets such as Europe.

There is, due to the valuation and the secure dividend almost no downside anymore, but if the streaming area continues to grow well and the stock is valued only close to the peer group, there is enormous potential. In addition, ViacomCBS is also a good takeover candidate, which also offers enormous potential for shareholders.

MaK@DollarDon

3Année

What is your annual return expectation? If it's less than 10%, it's not worth investing 🤔

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StupidRich@StupidRich

@DollarDon Exact return expectations are difficult. Discounted cash flow of EPS currently sees an upside of 45% with stable earnings (0% growth).

My trade is rather aimed at the fact that the growth opportunities from streaming are not fully priced in, or that the risks have been priced in too strongly. No matter how you look at it, P/E ratio 7, 3.43% yield with a payout ration of 24% is simply very cheap.

Upside therefore arises from the fact that streaming is growing as an area in the company and enables sustainable growth. It is also a good candidate for a takeover, as larger players could use it to buy additional content for their own services.

Divmann@Divmann

2Année

Servus, I'm looking at these right now as well, as a potential future purchase. I read in your reply to the other comment, you see 40%+ upside with DCF, may I ask with what you discount? Would be interested to know, many do it with T-Bill interest or AAA corporate bonds, Buffett takes his own desired yield.

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Hey, if I use DCF then it's based on earnings per share compared to an average return of 8%.

Based on the 2022 EPS of 3$, with 2% growth over the next 5 years and 1% annual growth thereafter, ~$45 would currently be the fair value. So 50% upside.

To be honest, I rarely use DCF. I usually just look at the P/E ratio and the dividend yield compared to the last 5-10 years to assess whether I like the valuation of a stock.

@StupidRich Great, thanks for the quick reply 😁
The main thing is not to buy too expensive 🤌🏻

@Divmann Sometimes works better and sometimes worse 😂💪🏼

@StupidRich That's what you say 😂