Why the stock market is reacting nervously
The share price has nevertheless Quartalszahlen nevertheless crashed. As usual, the Börse only think from quarter to quarter.
At USD 1.10 per share, Q2 earnings were well below expectations of USD 1.26. However, with sales of USD 413 million, analysts' estimates of USD 410 million were just exceeded.
This can certainly be criticized, but it is essential to discuss the reasons for this and examine the prevailing trends. For example, is it a one-off effect, are there sustained problems with profitability or are growth rates declining?
The transaction volume increased by 25% (USD 50.1 billion) in the second quarter. Gross profit after network costs increased by 29% to USD 413.4 million and gross profit climbed by 26% to USD 275.1 million.
The EBITDA improved by 26% to USD 205.1 million over the year as a whole. Free cash flow even increased by 55% to USD 117.6 million.
Focus on the future
There are therefore no signs of sustained problems with profitability or a slowdown in growth momentum.
The decline in profitability is mainly due to higher depreciation and amortization and higher interest payments in the course of the Global Blue takeover.
However, interest payments should fall again soon, as Shift4 Payments currently holds cash amounting to USD 3.03 billion, which corresponds almost exactly to its long-term debt of USD 3.04 billion.
In addition, the company has raised its revenue forecast after network costs from USD 1.66 - 1.73 billion to USD 1.965 - 2.035 billion.
Adjusted EBITDA is even expected to rise to USD 965 - 990 million instead of USD 840 - 865 million.
The long-term outlook was also confirmed. Shift4 Payments is therefore forecasting average annual growth rates of 30% for revenue after network costs and adjusted EBITDA for 2025 - 2028.
The most important target is a free cash flow run rate of USD 1.0 billion
Shift4 Payments share: Chart from 06.08.2025, price: USD 86.43 - symbol: FOUR | Source: TWS
Following the "disappointing" quarterly figures, Shift4 Payments fell back to the Unterstützung USD 84 - 85 and met with initial buying interest there. It is quite possible that the spook is already over.
However, if the share falls below USD 84, further price losses towards USD 75 must be expected.
If, on the other hand, it manages to return above USD 90, the situation will ease again.