I say > 15% up in one year. If you want to bet against it you can also short :) - My 1st and probably last position to diversify my tech-heavy portfolio more.
Who will stand up to the largest insurer in the USA? The moat has been greatly expanded over the years (several insurance (sub)categories, long-term care, Medicare program for low-income earners, telemedicine, pharmacies), making them very vertically integrated in the insurance and healthcare market.
Sales and margin pressure? Yes, of course! But by 60%? Think no!
As far as lawsuits are concerned, we still have to speak of a "presumed" lawsuit, if you believe UH. They report that no lawsuit has been filed. In a negative scenario, as is almost always the case in US history, a settlement will be reached. A few hundred million/1 billion and that's it. There is 34 billion in the coffers.
I see little to no risk in the insurance business.
The pharmacy subsidiary OptumRX is more critical. They negotiate with the pharmaceutical companies about the prices at which they buy medicines and pass them on to their policyholders + surcharge. And there could be problems here if 🍊they enforce what they say. BUT: OptumRX only accounts for approx. 13% of sales (share price plummets 60% 🤷♀️). As far as I know, this segment is one of the highest-margin areas at UN. Instead of good margins, these may be trimmed (to a solid level?). But the risk then also affects $CVS (+0,17 %) and $CI (-0,02 %) as well.
I think the potential impact is overestimated.
If there are people who live in the USA, I would appreciate your assessment!
By the way, for those who got in early: stop thinking from day to day!
