Finally, some movement in 3xGTAA again! Unfortunately, this time it's in the wrong direction:
Asset Performance 06/26 (May 30–June 30, according to Wikifolio)
2xWTI: -29.4%
3xQQQ: -1.9%
3xEU50: +15.8%
3xGTAA Portfolio (June 30, according to Getquin)
May 30, 26: €144,555
June 30, 26: €136,040
Wikifolio Certificate (June 30, mid-market rate according to Wikifolio)
May 30, 26: €225.80
June 30, 26: €211.60
Month: -6.3%
YTD: +29.6%
June 2026 Review
With a loss of over 6%, the month didn’t go as well as hoped. The losses were mainly due to oil. Gains in the stock markets weren’t enough to offset them. But that’s just how it goes. Things can’t always go up. Overall, the fluctuations remained within expected limits.
Outlook 06/26
The Iran issue has now been suspended for 60 days. What will actually happen after the negotiations is still completely up in the air. The markets appear to be playing the TACO trade. Another factor that has come into play is Warsh, the new Fed chair. Interest rate cuts in 2026 are now likely completely off the table. The key issue for the summer is likely to be the discussion about shrinking the Fed’s balance sheet, which is intended to withdraw a significant amount of liquidity from the markets without having to raise interest rates.
These developments are reflected in the assets within 3xGTAA: WTI is being removed from the portfolio, and USDEUR Long is being added in its place. Alongside QQQ and EU50, this is the only remaining asset class in an uptrend above the SMA150.
The allocation for 7/26 is therefore:
3xUSDEUR
3xQQQ
3xEU50
Report from the 3xGTAA Workshop
Recently, during a discussion, someone asked me how my portfolio would have performed. When I said approximately 25% per year since 2023, the response was that the same results could have been achieved with a Nasdaq 100 ETF and without leverage. That may be true—even for 3xGTAA—but it overlooks an important question: How dependent is a strategy’s performance on the overall market?
First, there’s always some stock index that outperforms your own strategy over a given period. If you knew the performance in advance, you could always bet on the best-performing index for the coming year and outperform all the others. Unfortunately, I don’t know that. And second, because of this uncertainty about the future, a strategy that systematically achieves the same performance with greater independence from the overall market is better. After all, you want to be able to make money even if the Nasdaq 100 slumps for a decade or two.
The most important metric for a strategy’s independence from a benchmark market is beta. In short: A beta of 1 means that a strategy tracks the benchmark market (e.g., MSCI World) on a 1:1 basis (e.g., 100% B&H MSCI World ETF). A beta of 0 means that the strategy performs completely independently of the benchmark market (e.g., 100% money market ETF). A beta of -1 tracks the benchmark market inversely (e.g., 1x Short DAX ETF). A strategy that achieves the average performance of the MSCI World (approx. 7% per annum) with a beta of 0 would therefore be excellent. The belief that one might as well have just invested in the MSCI World itself misses this important point. But you only realize this once the MSCI World has been performing significantly poorly for an extended period.
3xGTAA has a 1-year beta of -0.3 relative to the MSCI World and the Nasdaq 100. This means the correlation is slightly negative compared to these major indices. It doesn’t look so great when both indices are rising, but this is put into perspective as soon as they start to fall. So: Always look at the whole picture before passing judgment on a strategy!
A personal note
Since some of my posts were recently deleted by Getquin without comment—for whatever reason—I’ve decided to make my most important posts available via an external link on my profile page. There you’ll also find older posts from the early days of GTAA and on other topics. Enjoy! Suggestions for improvement are always welcome:
https://e.pcloud.link/publink/show?code=kZ4VAcZWGzWxTqxyLLYiAc5GgkJnYHQq8lX
May this momentum be with you, too!
Yours, Epi
(with a new logo)
https://www.wikifolio.com/de/de/w/wf03x0gtaa
