1Sem.·

Reconstruction of Ukraine: geopolitics and opportunities for investors

Hey guys,


I wanted to address a topic that is certainly of interest to us as investors: the reconstruction of Ukraine and which stocks could benefit from it. The geopolitical situation is constantly changing and there are many uncertainties. What happens if Donbass goes permanently to Russia? Will this slow down the reconstruction of Ukraine or could it still create opportunities for companies in the region?


America is getting involved mit🇺🇸


The USA is playing a central role in the reconstruction of Ukraine. A lot of money is already flowing into the region from the US, particularly for infrastructure, energy and technology. But it's not just about government aid - many US companies also have an interest in investing in the region. Considering how heavily the US is involved in supporting countries such as Poland and Ukraine, there are a number of companies here that could definitely benefit.


What happens if the Donbass goes to Russia?⚔️


If the Donbass is finally controlled by Russia, the geopolitical situation will of course worsen. This could slow down reconstruction in Ukraine, as this part of the country was an important industrial location. Nevertheless, billions of euros will flow into the western and central parts of Ukraine, and Poland could become an even more important partner in reconstruction.


Which stocks could benefit?📈🚀


If you look at who is active in the region, there are some exciting candidates that could benefit from the reconstruction. Here are a few companies that I think are well positioned:



♦️ Strabag (Austria): $STR (-1,58 %) A construction company that is active in many infrastructure projects in Europe. They could play an important role in the reconstruction of roads, bridges and buildings - also in Poland and Ukraine.


♦️ PGE (Polska Grupa Energetyczna): $PGE (+0,54 %) Poland's largest energy company. PGE could benefit from the expansion of the energy supply in Ukraine.


♦️ Budimex: $BDX (+1,02 %) Another Polish construction company that is doing well in infrastructure projects. When Ukraine awards major construction contracts, Budimex could be one of the first ports of call.


♦️ KGHM: $KGH (-0,02 %) This company is active in copper production. And we know how important copper is for reconstruction - whether for power lines, machinery or other infrastructure.


♦️ Asseco Poland:
$ACP (+0,29 %) An IT company that is active in many areas. They could play a key role in modernizing the digital infrastructure in Ukraine.


♦️ General Electric (USA) $GEC GE operates globally and Ukraine needs a lot of energy infrastructure. GE could benefit by providing solutions in the field of energy supply.


♦️ Siemens: $SIE (-0,57 %)
$ENR (-1,28 %) The German company could play a crucial role in reconstruction through its expertise in energy and infrastructure.


Conclusion❔☝🏽


The geopolitical situation will keep us busy for some time, but one thing is clear: the reconstruction of Ukraine will require a lot of resources and investment, and many companies from Poland, the EU and the US are well positioned to benefit. Even if the Donbass aligns with Russia, the need for construction projects, energy and technology in western Ukraine and Poland will continue.


What do you think? Which companies do you think are interesting? Do you have any stocks on your radar that have a good chance in this context? Let us hear your opinions and ideas!

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28 Commentaires

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I'm not sure how much will actually be invested there, I don't see the benefit for the USA soooo much

Then rather the companies that benefit from the 500B of the German infrastructure package
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1Sem.
Why not simply invest in neighboring countries? $CEC
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the Germans will pay for it all and others will profit from it. Trump will end the war and seize all the contracts. 😄
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1Sem.
@Seebi That's how T would like it to be. But it doesn't work.
The Germans get to pay for everything and Europe takes care of the finances. Only works if Germany takes over Europe. 😅
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@Epi Until now, Europe has been predominantly in German hands. Now Trump is taking over 😄
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1Sem.
@Seebi You'd probably like that! 😅

Europe is slow, not stupid.
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@Epi I would like to see good cooperation between Europe and the US and also with Putin again.
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@Seebi Trump talks a lot about what he wants to take over, buy and seize. So far, he has mainly fallen out with all his allies, so they are now imposing counter-tariffs and boycotts and ordering their weapons systems elsewhere. Everyone is allowed to pursue their own strategies, but I think it's just as doubtful that the Americans will sell a lot to Europe and Ukraine under this administration and that Europe will pay for it as it is that Trump will finish the wall to Mexico and the Mexicans will pay for it.
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@NichtRelevant Trump doesn't care about Europe, he doesn't care about allies. All he has to do is make friends with Putin, then nothing can stop him. Then Europe will be divided up 😀 They'll order the weapons systems from the USA anyway, because there's nothing comparably better. That's why I say talk to Trump and Putin before it's too late
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@Seebi I don't share that view at all. Europe is the largest single market in the world, bigger than the USA. We don't even need to talk about the GDP of the Russian Federation, which is smaller than that of Italy.

In military terms, Putin has been trying to defeat Ukraine, which is many times smaller and weaker, for three years and has not succeeded. I think it is rather unlikely that he will now march through to Western Europe with his army, where there are more troops and material available in Europe than he has, even without the USA. Especially as he would have to secure thousands of kilometers of his own territory at the same time.

In my view, talking to Trump and Putin is completely pointless because they don't stick to any agreements anyway. 😅
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1Sem.
@Seebi Talk to Trump and Putin - to listen to their power fantasies and world division plans? You can do that, but Europe shouldn't expect much from it.

Europe is now officially the last constitutional power bloc in the world. That is worth defending. It will take a while for the Europeans to understand what that means.
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@NichtRelevant very interesting what you have written in the middle. I have one question. Why are we being made so afraid in the media and by the government that Putin could or would attack Germany in 2030? Most recently, this statement came from Pistorius himself. The Poles and Lithuanians are going crazy and want to mine the border with Russia and Lithuania. Why does Merz want to rearm like this if there is no danger, even without the USA? Do you think they are lying to us all and spreading fear and panic?
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@Epi I hope Putin and Trump wait until then😀😀
Voir toutes les 8 autres réponses
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When it comes to reconstruction, you have to bear in mind that the areas with the greatest destruction are occupied by Russia and are very likely to remain occupied. Western companies will not play a role here - see the reconstruction of Mariupol. The remaining parts of Ukraine, apart from a few frontline towns, are not particularly badly destroyed. And the front line is still very dynamic; what is heavily destroyed on the Ukrainian side today could fall to Russia tomorrow.

In my opinion, however, the development of infrastructure for military purposes in Central and Eastern Europe will continue to increase in order to be prepared for further Russian aggression. In other words, everything that relates to mobility and energy infrastructure, for example. That's why I have a small investment in STRABAG, which has a good standing in Eastern Europe.
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Haha 😄 Find Russian or Turkish companies to invest in! 😜
How did the USA support Poland?
@TonyMelony1998 Did I miss something or is there still a war going on in Ukraine? I think the scenario of a Ukrainian capitulation is anything but unrealistic. But that doesn't feature at all in your thoughts. Which companies would benefit from this?
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Komatsu, excavators are needed anyway, no matter who wins the war.
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Thanks! Gracias :)
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