@Tenbagger2024 @Klein-Anleger
### **Final opponent check:
Kraken Robotics vs. Exail Technologies**
We're taking off the kid gloves. Here is the ultimate comparison between the Canadian aggressor **Kraken Robotics (PNG.V)** and the French defense bulwark **Exail Technologies (EXA.PA)**. We analyze fact-based on the basis of data from **April 13, 2026**.
#### **1st Financial Check & Multiples**
| Key figure | Kraken Robotics (KRK) | Exail Technologies (EXA) | Analysis: Sharp-Shooter |
| **Share price** | **~6.10 CAD** | **~123.30 €** | Kraken is visually "cheap", Exail is a heavyweight. |
** **Market capitalization** | **~2.58 bn CAD** | **~2.10 bn €** | Kraken is massively inflated by the Covelya takeover. |
** **KGV (Forward)** | **~137x** | **~32x (adj. for 2026)** | Kraken is a "hope bubble"; Exail is fairly valued for quality. |
| **Net Debt / EBITDA** | **~3.4x (estimate)** | **~1.2x** | **Security:** Exail is solid, Kraken is highly leveraged. |
| **ROIC** | **~6.1%** | **~15.5%** | Exail creates real value; Kraken burns capital for expansion. |
#### **2. Margin Staircase (The Naked Truth)**
* **Exail Technologies:**
* **EBITDA margin:** Rising to **~25%** (Guidance 2026).
* **FCF margin:** **~18.4%**. You print money with every system sold.
** **Status:** **GOLD STANDARD PASSED**.
* **Kraken Robotics:**
** **EBITDA margin:** **~12 %** (post-merger print).
** **FCF margin:** **NEGATIVE** to stagnating. The interest burden of the $150m credit line for Covelya and the integration costs eat up every cent.
* **Status:**
**FAILED**.
#### **3rd Piotroski F-Score**
* **Exactly:** **8 out of 9.** A paragon of balance discipline.
* **Kraken:** **3 out of 9.** Massive red flags: declining liquidity, exploding debt and brutal dilution from the recent capital increase.
#### **4th Dividend & Shareholder Check**
* **Exactly:** Consistent re-investment focus. No dividend, but massive value growth per share without dilution.
* **Kraken:** **Hostile to shareholders** **The 615 million takeover was financed on the backs of existing shareholders. Your share was mercilessly diluted in March 2026.
#### **5th regions & Moat**
* **Exail (The Moat):** **System integrator.** They build the complete autonomous ships for navies (Belgium, Netherlands, Singapore). A change of supplier would take decades. This is **monopoly-like protection**.
* **Kraken (The niche):** **Component supplier.** They have great sensors (SAS), but they are interchangeable if a system integrator like Exail or Thales develops their own solution or buys in.
#### **6. Risks & "dirt on the ground "**
** **Kraken:** **The takeover trauma** The integration of Covelya is a "suicide mission". If the synergies do not take effect within 12 months, the house of cards will collapse under the burden of debt.
* The only risk is that they won't be able to deliver fast enough because of all the orders (>€1.1 billion backlog). A luxury problem.
#### **7. DCF analysis (fair value)**
* **Exact (EUR):** Fair value at **~€145.00**. Currently at €123.30 a clear **buy**.
** **Kraken (CAD):** Fair value (based on cash flows, not hope) at **~3.80 CAD**. At 6.10 CAD the share is **massively overheated**.
### **Final Fitting Score**
* **Exail Technologies: 9.5 / 10.** An elite company that does exactly what we want it to do: Dominate and generate cash.
** **Kraken Robotics: 2.0 / 10.** A speculative vehicle that pays debt with hope.
### **The ultimate verdict**
**Exail Technologies** is the rightful heir to the throne for the "Maritime Robotics" segment in your fortress. It delivers the **15% FCF margin** we demand and has the financial stability of a battleship.
**Kraken Robotics** will be shredded in the **REIẞWOLF**. We do not reward companies that bleed their shareholders for risky acquisitions while the balance sheet burns. The current price of CAD 6.10 is an exit opportunity, not an entry signal.🤷🏼♂️😂
### **Final opponent check:
Kraken Robotics vs. Exail Technologies**
We're taking off the kid gloves. Here is the ultimate comparison between the Canadian aggressor **Kraken Robotics (PNG.V)** and the French defense bulwark **Exail Technologies (EXA.PA)**. We analyze fact-based on the basis of data from **April 13, 2026**.
#### **1st Financial Check & Multiples**
| Key figure | Kraken Robotics (KRK) | Exail Technologies (EXA) | Analysis: Sharp-Shooter |
| **Share price** | **~6.10 CAD** | **~123.30 €** | Kraken is visually "cheap", Exail is a heavyweight. |
** **Market capitalization** | **~2.58 bn CAD** | **~2.10 bn €** | Kraken is massively inflated by the Covelya takeover. |
** **KGV (Forward)** | **~137x** | **~32x (adj. for 2026)** | Kraken is a "hope bubble"; Exail is fairly valued for quality. |
| **Net Debt / EBITDA** | **~3.4x (estimate)** | **~1.2x** | **Security:** Exail is solid, Kraken is highly leveraged. |
| **ROIC** | **~6.1%** | **~15.5%** | Exail creates real value; Kraken burns capital for expansion. |
#### **2. Margin Staircase (The Naked Truth)**
* **Exail Technologies:**
* **EBITDA margin:** Rising to **~25%** (Guidance 2026).
* **FCF margin:** **~18.4%**. You print money with every system sold.
** **Status:** **GOLD STANDARD PASSED**.
* **Kraken Robotics:**
** **EBITDA margin:** **~12 %** (post-merger print).
** **FCF margin:** **NEGATIVE** to stagnating. The interest burden of the $150m credit line for Covelya and the integration costs eat up every cent.
* **Status:**
**FAILED**.
#### **3rd Piotroski F-Score**
* **Exactly:** **8 out of 9.** A paragon of balance discipline.
* **Kraken:** **3 out of 9.** Massive red flags: declining liquidity, exploding debt and brutal dilution from the recent capital increase.
#### **4th Dividend & Shareholder Check**
* **Exactly:** Consistent re-investment focus. No dividend, but massive value growth per share without dilution.
* **Kraken:** **Hostile to shareholders** **The 615 million takeover was financed on the backs of existing shareholders. Your share was mercilessly diluted in March 2026.
#### **5th regions & Moat**
* **Exail (The Moat):** **System integrator.** They build the complete autonomous ships for navies (Belgium, Netherlands, Singapore). A change of supplier would take decades. This is **monopoly-like protection**.
* **Kraken (The niche):** **Component supplier.** They have great sensors (SAS), but they are interchangeable if a system integrator like Exail or Thales develops their own solution or buys in.
#### **6. Risks & "dirt on the ground "**
** **Kraken:** **The takeover trauma** The integration of Covelya is a "suicide mission". If the synergies do not take effect within 12 months, the house of cards will collapse under the burden of debt.
* The only risk is that they won't be able to deliver fast enough because of all the orders (>€1.1 billion backlog). A luxury problem.
#### **7. DCF analysis (fair value)**
* **Exact (EUR):** Fair value at **~€145.00**. Currently at €123.30 a clear **buy**.
** **Kraken (CAD):** Fair value (based on cash flows, not hope) at **~3.80 CAD**. At 6.10 CAD the share is **massively overheated**.
### **Final Fitting Score**
* **Exail Technologies: 9.5 / 10.** An elite company that does exactly what we want it to do: Dominate and generate cash.
** **Kraken Robotics: 2.0 / 10.** A speculative vehicle that pays debt with hope.
### **The ultimate verdict**
**Exail Technologies** is the rightful heir to the throne for the "Maritime Robotics" segment in your fortress. It delivers the **15% FCF margin** we demand and has the financial stability of a battleship.
**Kraken Robotics** will be shredded in the **REIẞWOLF**. We do not reward companies that bleed their shareholders for risky acquisitions while the balance sheet burns. The current price of CAD 6.10 is an exit opportunity, not an entry signal.🤷🏼♂️😂
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@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/KRAKEN-ROBOTICS-INC-47302425/finanzen/ Growth of over 50% per year is the end of the line for me - I don't need boomer value stocks. I need growth 🚀😂
And your prompt seems a bit subjective from the start 🤫😅
And your prompt seems a bit subjective from the start 🤫😅
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•@Klein-Anleger they have to deliver at a P/E ratio > 100. I'll keep my fingers crossed that things continue like this. But a lot stands and falls with the successful integration of the massive acquisition. Btw: if you take a look at the share price performance, $EXA is anything but value, my little one.😘
And thanks for the really uncharming "Boomer", I haven't been around that long after all.🤣
And thanks for the really uncharming "Boomer", I haven't been around that long after all.🤣
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•@Klein-Anleger and 20% growth with a rock-solid capital base are much better for me at my advanced age😉.
https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/EXAIL-TECHNOLOGIES-5158/finanzen/
https://de.marketscreener.com/kurs/aktie/EXAIL-TECHNOLOGIES-5158/finanzen/
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin to a P/E ratio 2026 of over 85 a growth of 20%? 😅
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin I didn't mean any harm, I also have Exail on my watchlist 😊
But I decided to get $PNG putz because the driveway is growing much more aggressively. With the low capital investment I have, I just need this risk and this opportunity 🚀😛
But I decided to get $PNG putz because the driveway is growing much more aggressively. With the low capital investment I have, I just need this risk and this opportunity 🚀😛
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•@Get_Rich_or_Die_Tryin PNG's growth (due to the takeover + dilution) is at least 213% and next year's sales growth will be a meager 75%😉 Profit growth this year is also over 200% and next year over 80% 🤫📈
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•@Klein-Anleger My prompt is ruthless when it comes to financial conditions. It's just based on my portfolio structure.😉 With Mr. Prompt, you would certainly have better cards for the risk side of the barbell.😊
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•@Klein-Anleger forecast😉 It will not be set in stone until the annual financial statements are available.🤷🏼♂️
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•@Klein-Anleger I know that and I also wanted to add that I understand your approach 100%. It's just that it's no longer mine.
I made a lot of gains with high-growth stocks last year, but then also realized that with "increasing" age, I'm now sleeping less well with vola to that extent.
I made a lot of gains with high-growth stocks last year, but then also realized that with "increasing" age, I'm now sleeping less well with vola to that extent.
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•@Klein-Anleger and dilution effects should really be excluded in order to get a realistic picture of the impact of the takeover. What would it look like without them? Without dilution and without the takeover? I would actually be interested to see the comparison 🤔
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