5J·

The Crazy Trio

Good morning, everyone,

It’s just amazing how well collaboration between users can work.

Even though there are unfortunately sometimes only a few comments on my presentations, behind the scenes, the exchange with key users is getting better and better.

Yesterday with Generac $GNRC (-0,2 %) you could clearly see that we had already analyzed exciting stocks ahead of a breakout.

With my last stock pick, Hammond $HPS.A (+2,35 %) it could be the same story,

(not an investment recommendation, just my personal opinion)

But the stock I’d like to introduce to you today was also discussed and analyzed among us beforehand. And sure enough, yesterday brought the good news we’d been waiting for.

Thanks to my friend @Raketentoni reminded me once again of this IPO stock, which I’d initially put on my watchlist because the IPO price was too high—and which I’d naturally lost sight of here.

Since the news triggered a great surge yesterday, I naturally brought @Dividendenopi jumped on board. I appreciate his expertise and foresight more and more.

And so it has been—and continues to be—a wonderful collaboration between the three of us.

“The Crazy Trio”

We look forward to plenty of comments on $INIO (+0,28 %) Innio

👉 The INNIO IPO took place in early June 2026, with the official pricing on June 4, 2026.

INNIO Stock: Major Order for U.S. Data Centers and Rating Upgrade Drive Share Price Surge

⚡ INNIO Stock –

Date: September 17, 2026
Key Takeaway: INNIO stock surged by over 12%, triggered by a major contract and a rating upgrade.

🔋 Major order

INNIO received an order for 450 MW from a U.S. energy provider.
Application: Containerized Jenbacher J624 gas engines for decentralized power supply to large data centers in North America.
Delivery period: through 2028 → long-term revenue assurance.

💼 Rating upgrade

Moody’s raised the company’s rating from B1 to Ba3 , outlook “positive”.
Reason: conservative financial policy following NASDAQ listing (June 2026) and stable debt-to-equity ratio.

📈 Market Environment

Positive sentiment on the U.S. stock markets (Nasdaq +1.6%, S&P 500 +1%).
INNIO is benefiting from the AI boom and the rising energy demand for data centers.
A combination of a new order, a rating upgrade, and market momentum led to a sharp rise in the stock price.

💡 Conclusion

INNIO is positioning itself as a a leading provider of decentralized energy solutions for AI infrastructure. The report points to sustainable growth potential and improved creditworthiness — a clear boost to investor confidence.

Innio NV is a Germany-based provider of decentralized energy solutions that supplies electricity. The company develops, manufactures, and maintains power systems under the Jenbacher and Waukesha brands. It supplies electricity for applications such as data centers, microgrids, grid stabilization, industrial power supply, and gas compression.

Number of employees: 5,467

As of December 31, 2025, INNIO has a global presence in approximately 100 countries, supported by a resilient, high-margin services business that generates long-term, recurring revenue throughout the entire equipment lifecycle. As demand for electricity accelerates—driven by AI, electrification, and grid constraints—INNIO enables scalable, behind-the-meter power generation with high efficiency, rapid startup capability, strong transient performance, and fuel flexibility, including hydrogen-compatible solutions.

INNIO plans a $300 million expansion of its Wisconsin facility, creating 500 jobs

⚙️ INNIO Expands Wisconsin Facility

Date: August 19, 2026
Investment: over $300 million
New jobs: about 500

🔋 Goals of the expansion

Expansion of engine assembly capacity in Waukesha, Wisconsinto meet rising U.S. demand.
Construction of a new engine test facility (≈ 8,000 m²) and renovation of offices and workshops.
Focus on decentralized energy solutions for data centers, power grids, and industrial facilities.

🏭 Location and Employment

The campus covers 1.7 million ft², of which 890,000 ft² of production space.
New jobs are being created in assembly, production, engineering, CNC machining, material handling, and maintenance.
Waukesha remains the U.S. hub alongside the locations Trenton (NJ) and Waller (TX).

🌍 Company Profile

INNIO develops and maintains power generation systems under the following brands Jenbacher and Waukesha.
Headquarters: Munich, Germany
Number of employees (as of the end of 2025): over 5,000 worldwide
💡 Conclusion
The expansion strengthens INNIO’s U.S. presence and local value creation significantly. It positions the company as a key player in decentralized energy supply in the growing market for data center infrastructure.

INNIO’s First Annual Report: A Test of the Growth Story in the Data Center Market

⭐ INNIO – First Annual Report Following the IPO (Q2 2026)

Date: July 27, 2026 Source: Investing.com

📌 Key Takeaway

INNIO releases its first quarterly report as a publicly traded company . The report is seen as testto see whether the major growth story in the data center market is viable.

📈 Expected Results (Q2 2026)

Earnings: $0.05 per share
Revenue: $881.7 million
Previous Quarter: Loss of $0.01 per share on revenue of $668.6 million → +32% sequential growth, significant operational improvement.

🔋 Strategic positioning

INNIO is benefiting greatly from:

AI boom
exploding electricity demand large data centers
grid bottlenecks, which make decentralized energy generation attractive → Jenbacher & Waukesha engines are considered a readily available alternative to sold-out gas turbines (through 2028).

📦 Order Book & Backlog

2025 equipment orders: $3.88 billion (+188% YoY)
Backlog Q1 2026: $4.8 billion (end of 2024: $1 billion) → Investors want to see whether this massive order backlog translates into revenue and margins .

🏭 Capacity expansion

Production capacity is set to increase:
3.5 GW → 5 GW by the end of the year
10 GW by 2030
Locations: Jenbach, Waukesha, North America (containerization) → Critical: Timelines, investment needs, production bottlenecks.

INNIO Q2 2026 Earnings Presentation

🔎 Development at a Glance

Revenue:

From 2026e to 2028e, revenue is expected to rise from $3.874 billion to $6.035 billion. This represents very dynamic growth, with the growth rate slowing from 33.71% to 16.52% .

Profitability:

The margin trend is particularly striking. The EBIT margin rises from 14.56% (2026) to 19.33% (2028), while the EBITDA margin rises from 19.11% to 22.75% .

Profit:

Net income is expected to rise from $225 million in 2026 to $773.6 million in 2028 . The biggest jump is expected in 2027, with +159.36% .

Debt:

According to the forecast, net debt will decline from $1.348 billion in 2026 to $849 million in 2027 and will even reach −$19.9 million —which would mean that INNIO would, on paper, achieve a net cash position.

Free Cash Flow:

In 2027, there will initially be a decline from $499 million to $441.5 million, before a significant jump to $765.5 million is projected for 2028. At the same time, CAPEX will fall to $297.5 million.

In short: MarketScreener’s estimates paint a scenario for INNIO through 2028 featuring strong revenue growth + significantly rising margins + rapidly growing profits + substantial debt reduction. The key points to watch here are, in particular, the realization of the high profit growth assumptions and the expected jump in FCF for 2028.

🔎 Performance

FC Yield: 3.24% → 2.97% → 5.46%
P/E Ratio: 74.1x → 24.2x → 18.3x
P/B ratio: 32.3x → 13.8x → 7.9x
PEG: −0.7x → 0x → 0.6x

September 18, 2026, 8:55:05 a.m. •

Lang & Schwarz (EUR)

17.90 EUR

$INIO (+0,28 %)

22 Commentaires

Raketentoni@Raketentoni

I was happy to do it. It's a good company, but it still has a few risks. Tomorrow I'll post the agents' analysis of all the energy companies we discussed.
Do you remember “A Trio with 4 Fists”? That’s exactly who we are—the “old” grandpa and the two young whippersnappers 😆

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Raketentoni That's a very good comparison. What risks do you see?

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Tenbagger-Capital What the analysts are saying:

Dependence on the data center/gas engine boom:
INNIO has secured several very large contracts for 2026—including 1.5 GW from VoltaGrid, 1.1 GW for a large data center campus, and most recently 450 MW from a U.S. energy company.
That’s impressive, but it also raises expectations massively. If AI/data center Capex cools off later or projects are postponed, growth could slow significantly.

Customer and Order Concentration:
Individual large orders have now reached an enormous scale. This creates visibility, but also concentration risk. A major customer that shifts its plans or a delayed campus project can quickly impact revenue and working capital.

Capacity and Execution Risk:
INNIO must scale up significantly. In Waukesha alone, more than $300 million is to be invested and over 500 jobs created. This is positive for growth but carries typical risks:
supply chains, skilled labor, startup costs, production quality, and margin pressure.

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Raketentoni However, I view this expansion at Innio much more positively than at companies that are primarily financed by debt and won’t be profitable for several more years. Here, the forecasts indicate that margins can be increased while debt decreases. The FCF yield is rising. Recurring revenue also helps cushion some of the impact. Furthermore, I view the geographic positioning positively; in the U.S., the company is currently fully engaged in CAPEX. And in Europe, things should eventually get underway due to regulation and lengthy approval processes. This will remain a key issue over the next few years, and in my opinion, we’re only at the beginning.

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Raketentoni@Raketentoni

@Tenbagger-Capital There's no such thing as a risk-free business 😬 I'm always complaining from a position of privilege, you know that 🫡 But who would've thought Nike would end up like this 🤷

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Raketentoni Well, in times of high inflation, I wouldn’t have invested a single euro in Nike. Investors’ money doesn’t grow on trees, either. So they think carefully about where it’s worth investing right now, and consumer goods aren’t exactly in high demand at the moment. But that, too, might change again as inflation falls. Nike hasn’t been able to increase its profits over the past two years. That might explain the current stock price. But if you look at how nicely Nike’s dividend yield is rising, I think the stock is worth considering for dividend investors alone. Combined with the fact that, according to forecasts, earnings growth is back in the double digits, Nike could once again become an exciting dividend growth stock. As our dear @Dividendenopi always says, “Patience.”

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Darkwingduck@Darkwingduck

@Tenbagger-Capital I think, unfortunately, the problem runs a bit deeper. Right now, the sports and lifestyle segment in particular is lacking the kind of innovation it had 5–6 years ago. I see much better approaches here at $8022

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Darkwingduck Nike is very strong in the athletic shoe market, and ON is making significant inroads there. But Hoka (Deckers Outdoor) is also on the rise. At Adidas, I see Adidas Originals as a wild card. They’ve cleverly recognized that they can draw on their history, and these styles are still—or once again—all the rage. Just look at the Samba. There are no development costs involved, so they can essentially sell a simple shoe at a high price.

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Chris@Multibagger

@Raketentoni That's very well written, even though I think you're the only one of the three of you under 50!

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Mi11@Migu11

@Tenbagger-Capital I read every review thoroughly—sometimes even multiple times. But I’m also one of those who rarely or never leave comments. I’d love to invest in most of the titles you’ve featured. It’s just that I don’t have the funds for it :D But still. A huge thank you for all the effort you (and many others) put into this! Mig

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Migu11 Thank you for this wonderful compliment. It makes me—and all of us—very happy.

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

If the research on individual stocks is negative, then the research on IPOs is sobering.

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capital_captain_2693@capital_captain_2693

@Gehebeltes-EFH ?

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Gehebeltes-EFH@Gehebeltes-EFH

@capital_captain_2693 The most important and influential finding in finance is that initial public offerings (IPOs) tend to significantly underperform the broader market over the long term.

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Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi

I don’t need to say much more about this; we already had an in-depth discussion last night. It’s a strong company, and we’ll move forward with our project even though there is, of course, a certain amount of risk involved. The order book is excellent, and the backlog is impressive. That’s the crux of the matter—it could potentially have a negative impact on future development. Capacity needs to be increased to process the orders. And if there were to be delays in completing the projects in the backlog, that would also have an impact. But as we know, the higher the risk, the higher the return. And in this case, I think the ratio is more than reasonable. So… go for it 🚀

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Ricola@Roccola601

As always: Thank you for sharing your thoughts and data! 🙏🏼
Of course, this sector is very promising and necessary—and you’ve already really won me over with $VICR. 😁

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

@Roccola601 My dear friend, I'd be happy to. But please keep the overall package in mind when putting together your portfolio. I'm always happy to hear your comments.

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Ricola@Roccola601

@Tenbagger-Capital Yes, absolutely—right now I’d only add one new stock to my portfolio, and ideally one that isn’t correlated with AI or AI infrastructure...
I’m eyeing $ELF, $CELH, or maybe even $EUZ at the moment 👀—or the long-awaited opportunity to buy into $HONAV

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Tenbagger-Capital@Tenbagger-Capital

I actually have Elf Beauty in my portfolio myself. But I’m being very cautious about consumer goods right now. High raw material prices and transportation costs that can’t be passed on to consumers on a 1-to-1 basis. This puts pressure on margins and—when companies raise prices—on sales. That’s why I’d think very carefully right now about which sector to invest in. I currently see the most potential in stock picking. I’m looking for companies with care.

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Ricola@Roccola601

@Tenbagger-Capital Absolutely. The consumer discretionary sector should be viewed with great caution—though I do believe that the beauty industry in this price segment won’t necessarily suffer, but might even benefit, because consumers will have to watch their spending more closely and won’t be buying the higher-priced products from $OR.
But I definitely know what you mean... 🙏🏼

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Johnny B.@JBatelli

Are you invested in it yourself?
Thanks for the introduction. I find the company veeeery interesting. But I've never heard of it before.

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Chris@Multibagger

From a technical analysis perspective, I'd say it's still in a downtrend.

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