Anbei meine Gedanken zu den Q1-Quartalszahlen (auf Englisch, da einfacher):
Positive
- „Floor“ 2030 guidance of $6.5b in revenue and $1.3b adj. EBITDA (= 20% adj. EBITDA margins) —> >100$ stock by 2030 if they execute
- Nearly 30% YoY revenue growth excl. GLP-1s
- Nearly 50% YoY subscriber growth in dermatology
- New verticals coming this year: low testosterone and menopause support, although later than earlier communicated („before year end“ vs. H1-25)
- Growing share of personalization (now 60% overall, 70% of new subscribers, 80% in dermatology, sexual health subscribers with daily solutions doubled YoY to >40%)
- Higher retention in sexual health and dermatology
- Higher personalization and retention are a clear sign of enhancing patient outcomes per dollar spent over time
- Strong operating leverage, especially in marketing
- Rising operating cashflow
- Growing cash position
- Updated guide to higher adj. EBITDA and adj. EBITDA margin
- Positive outlook on deepening partnership with Novo $NOVO B (+0,8 %) (more product lines / categories, potentially across geographies)
- New COO (Amazon veteran)
- Confidence in scaling platform globally
- Scaling operations (>700k square feet) and upgrade of equipment across facilities
- Roadmap to preventive care as mass market in the next 5 years
Negative
- Only 137k net subscribers added this quarter (last 4 quarters were all higher, only 6% vs. previous quarter)
- Revenue growth excl. GLP-1s showing signs of slowdown (nearly 30% YoY vs. 46% in the previous year) —> maybe due to shift in marketing focus on weight loss and volatility in sexual health
- 39% of Q1-25 revenue coming from GLP-1s ($230m in Q1-25 vs. $12m in Q2-24)
- „Disappointing“ outlook, i.e. no higher guide for Q2-25 and FY25, despite Novo $NOVO B (+0,8 %) deal
- Expected volatility in sexual health due to shift to personalized daily solutions vs. on-demand solutions
- Decrease in gross margins (73,5% vs. 76,8% QoQ), but expected to be temporary (sequential increase next quarter)
- Exploding CAC per net subscribers added (2x vs Q1-24) —> again, maybe due to shift in marketing focus on weight loss
- No buybacks, indicating fair value / overvaluation
- No CTO update
- Ongoing talks with Eli Lilly $LLY (-2,36 %) , but company seems reluctant, given negative stance on compounders
Bewertung
- Falls die 2030er Ziele erreicht werden: $6,5 Mrd. Umsatz x 20% Adj. EBITDA Marge x 20er Multiple = $26 Mrd. Marktkapitalisierung = ca. $100 Aktienkurs
- Fairer Wert heute: $42
