3Mo¡

Interesting value from the 2nd row

Once again, here is a value that is very much to my taste and outside the mainstream. But perhaps some people here are familiar with it. It is about $TXT (+1,28 %) .


Textron: Defense and aviation power combined

Textron is much more than a conglomerate with well-known brands such as Bell Helicopter and Cessna - the company is an underestimated beneficiary of two megatrends: global aviation recovery and growing defense budgets. Despite temporary setbacks such as supply chain problems and a labor dispute that has since been resolved, Textron remains on track for operational growth. The first quarter of 2025 alone, with an order backlog of over 17 billion dollars, demonstrated the enormous confidence of customers from the civil and military sectors. The Aviation segment is benefiting from the global increase in air traffic and a sharp rise in demand for business aircraft - Textron was able to book record orders with Cessna and Beechcraft, including the prestigious Cessna Citation Longitude project. At the same time, the company is strengthening its position in military aviation with innovative developments in the VTOL and drone segment. The highlight: the V-280 Valor for the US Army's "Future Long Range Assault Aircraft" program, which is set to go into series production from 2026. While the share price has fallen short of industry expectations over the last twelve months, the current valuation level offers a rare opportunity: the analyst consensus sees potential upside of up to 40%.


and, as you'd expect from me, there's also a nifty derivative that I might get into today after the start of trading.


JH5UYA with a base of 95$ and a leverage of 9.5, which means that the bill makes 210% if the stock rises only 18% to 95$. That would be the high from April 24.

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8 Commentaires

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Very interesting 👍
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I find the share interesting.
I think the leverage is too high. You can gamble on any stock with such leverage. You don't need a fundamental analysis for that.
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@Epi You are also a serious investor, I am more of a trader. If I wanted to follow the share fundamentally in the long term, I wouldn't take an OS with a term until December.
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@Multibagger Sure, but what do you care about fundamental data and stories as a trader? It's all about the setups and market data. Right?

In view of the unconventional strategies I pursue, I think it's a risk to describe myself as a serious investor. Kommer would be turning in his grave.
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@Epi I differentiate between short-term trades with KO certificates, where the fundamental data and story are of little interest to me. For me, 6 months with OS belongs in the medium-term portfolio. These are the stocks that I sometimes roll, i.e. change the OS, but stay in for longer. I then select such stocks and look at them again in 3-4 months to see whether a switch to another bond would be worthwhile and whether I continue to see good price increases.
My top pick for this area at the moment is $IBM. It was thrown out yesterday because it only has 6 weeks to run. I will be looking for a new one in the near future, as I believe that $IBM will also become a top player in quantum computing.
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@Multibagger Do I understand you correctly that you want to hold a 10x leverageOS for 6 months? 😮
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@Epi I always set myself two price targets for the share and thus also for the certificate. In this case, $95 for the share corresponds to around €0.60 in the bill, i.e. around 200%. Once this has been reached, I sell half the position and adjust the SL to the entry level. This means it can no longer go into negative territory. The 2nd price target is 113$, which would correspond to a plus of 700% for the bill. If the share moves there during the term, the position is closed and not rolled. The same applies if it falls back below target price 1 after approx. 4-6 weeks before maturity. If it is between price target 1 and 2, I consider exchanging the bond.
Now comes the biggest restriction. I always give these bills 3-4 weeks to move in the right direction. If they are then in the red, they are consistently sold.
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The sector is currently running.
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