I’m going to go out on a limb here and say that you’ll be waiting in vain for that $45k. This comment might not hold up over time, but I don’t think there will be any significant new lows. Definitely not below 50k. There will definitely be pullbacks, at least down to the breakout level.
That’s one thing I’ll never understand, even with stocks. When people (without any fundamental or technical basis) have picked out certain price levels and then just wait. If you’re fine with not being in the game at all, then that’s okay. It’s also clear that you shouldn’t be chasing the rally right now. But potentially missing the boat for a few percent—I don’t know.
In my opinion, Bitcoin doesn’t need a “risk-on” environment right now; rather, it’s back in the spotlight as an inflation-proof asset (think “digital gold”). BTC even rose when the war in Iran broke out. That wasn’t a “risk-on” environment either.
That’s one thing I’ll never understand, even with stocks. When people (without any fundamental or technical basis) have picked out certain price levels and then just wait. If you’re fine with not being in the game at all, then that’s okay. It’s also clear that you shouldn’t be chasing the rally right now. But potentially missing the boat for a few percent—I don’t know.
In my opinion, Bitcoin doesn’t need a “risk-on” environment right now; rather, it’s back in the spotlight as an inflation-proof asset (think “digital gold”). BTC even rose when the war in Iran broke out. That wasn’t a “risk-on” environment either.
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Thanks for your insight. Basically, I agree with you... But BTC has had me under its spell for a few years now, and I’ve considered all sorts of perspectives...
In my opinion, the mathematical cycle still prevails with Bitcoin, NO MATTER what the narrative is. And I’m sticking to that this time as well, which is why I don’t yet consider the current breakout to be the end of the bear market.
I’m really curious to see where this pump leads. It’s truly remarkable.
Up to 45k USD, that’s a correction of about 40%. That’s quite a lot, but definitely not unrealistic for Bitcoin.
In my opinion, the mathematical cycle still prevails with Bitcoin, NO MATTER what the narrative is. And I’m sticking to that this time as well, which is why I don’t yet consider the current breakout to be the end of the bear market.
I’m really curious to see where this pump leads. It’s truly remarkable.
Up to 45k USD, that’s a correction of about 40%. That’s quite a lot, but definitely not unrealistic for Bitcoin.
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@DerDepotFuchs It’s only natural that there are different views and expectations. BTC has formed a solid bottom in the short term and has broken out of it with a significant spike in volume. I wouldn’t rule out the possibility that it might test the previous lows again—or just below them. I think 45k is unrealistic. Do you have a specific reason for that number, or did you just pick it out of thin air?
I could just imagine that BTC’s underlying dynamics might soften as it gains broader market adoption, especially from institutional investors.
Here’s a thought experiment: Imagine you’re an institutional investor putting large sums into BTC. What’s better for you? Do you wait patiently until all the 4-year-cycle investors have jumped in so we all rally at the same time? Or do you surprise those investors and let them buy in driven by FOMO? I could be wrong, of course, but I don’t think it’s entirely implausible.
I could just imagine that BTC’s underlying dynamics might soften as it gains broader market adoption, especially from institutional investors.
Here’s a thought experiment: Imagine you’re an institutional investor putting large sums into BTC. What’s better for you? Do you wait patiently until all the 4-year-cycle investors have jumped in so we all rally at the same time? Or do you surprise those investors and let them buy in driven by FOMO? I could be wrong, of course, but I don’t think it’s entirely implausible.
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