1Mo·

BASF a buy or a sell?

$BAS (+1,69 %)


Since the high in 2015, BASF's share price has fallen by around 50%. Despite this enormous correction within the last 2 years (to be fair, it must be mentioned that the majority of this 50% mainly occurred in the last 2-3 years), the P/E ratio of the stock is over 75. According to this indicator, the company is still enormously overvalued despite its catastrophic share price performance.

The dividend yield is still high, but this has also been drastically reduced in the meantime.


The margin is now 0.33%!


The crumbling German economy is clearly affecting the company, and BASF has been relocating many resources abroad for several years now, especially to China.


What is positive, however, is the enormous free cash flow of over one billion with a market cap of around 37 billion.


What is your opinion on the stock?


Sources: Scalable Capital, Handelsblatt, GetQuin (L&S)


No investment advice!

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20 Commentaires

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@ETFs_sind_dummes_Geld Yes Sell, exactly. We're in the middle of finding a floor and you're talking about selling
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@stocker_328 You're talking about bottoming out here, which must be great. You can buy BASF shares if the company is so great or if you think it's great. For my part, I don't think the company is great because:

Gross margin at 25.54%
Operating margin at 5.6%
Interest coverage at 3.58
ROIC at 2.38
ROCE at 3.85
Price-to-FCF at 22.53 (far too expensive for what you get).
22.3 bn debt to FCF (2023 - 12) of 2.7 bn, although it should be mentioned here that FCF has been falling even further per quarter since then. There are currently too many challenges for BASF. Fluctuating raw material prices, global economic instability, the restructuring and relocation of production capacities to China, which requires billions in investment, ever more requirements in the area of environmental protection and climate protection measures, and all this with simultaneous cost pressure. In addition, supply chains are a constant challenge. In view of all these factors, BASF is not only relatively expensively valued due to falling FCF, but it is also questionable whether the company can remain profitable in the long term and remain competitive in a rapidly changing chemical industry. So definitely a big, fat SELL.
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I only have it in my portfolio because you have very good conditions as an MA.
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I will continue to hold. But I probably wouldn't buy at the moment. But I wouldn't sell either.

Dividend will be cut as far as I know.
Cyclical business.

But will get back on its feet 👍🏻
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@Klambam As mentioned in the article, the dividend will be significantly reduced in the next FY, thank you for your contribution!
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Hold or buy, a small recovery can be expected this year. Kamieth is a strategist (used to be my boss), he is positioning BASF correctly and making it fit for the future. A sustained recovery can be expected from 2026.
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@Aktienhauptmeister Do you have any other reasons for this assessment apart from those mentioned in the article?
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I'm sticking with the hold for now. I'm still very new to the stock market and perhaps I wouldn't have bought the share with the knowledge I have now. However, it has not yet caused me any major losses, so I will take the dividend for the time being, even if it is cut significantly. I definitely see the possibility of a turnaround. IF work is done on energy costs for industry after the next election. There is also a lot of catching up to do in terms of infrastructure, but it is possible.
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Sell and bet on faster horses
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@xzxzx Which ones would that be?
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World etf
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@xzxzx Always a good choice, rather thought you had a direct alternative in mind, i.e. similar industry in a similar geographical area
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I no longer invest in Germany, I think we're in for some very bad years, and I'm not familiar with the sector either.

I would rather opt for mag 7, world etf, btc, I am confident that they will do better in the next few years (just my opinion!)
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@xzxzx You certainly won't go wrong with it
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Otherwise $LIN they are also active in this area, small reset
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If you like turnaround...
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@WarrenamBuffet When, why and to what extent would you expect one?
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@Thanos01 I just don't see it, and if we all knew that, we would be or would quickly become rich ;-)
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