2Sem.·

MicroStrategy: Why the share disappoints me after half a year📉

I have been holding MicroStrategy shares ($MSTR (-3,86 %) ) for half a year now. Originally, my motivation was clear: I was looking for a leveraged play on $BTC (+0,01 %) without investing directly in derivatives or high-risk altcoins. $MSTR (-3,86 %) seemed like the perfect vehicle - an established company with an aggressive Bitcoin strategy, led by Michael Saylor, who has publicly emerged as one of the loudest BTC bulls. But what began promisingly is increasingly turning out to be a disappointing journey.


1.

Extreme volatility - without real added value


Of course, a certain amount of volatility is to be expected with a Bitcoin-related share - I was aware of that. But what increasingly bothers me is that these fluctuations often seem completely disconnected from Bitcoin's performance itself. While $BTC (+0,01 %) reaches new highs, it sometimes $MSTR (-3,86 %) sometimes stands still or even loses. If the leverage effect should be higher in theory, why this sluggish reaction?


2.

Dilution through capital increases


A massive damper is the repeated dilution through new share issues. In order to finance further Bitcoin purchases, MicroStrategy regularly issues new shares or bonds. What is lost in the process: shareholder value. The original leverage on Bitcoin is being diluted step by step - not only financially, but also psychologically for investors.


3.

Non-transparent communication around Bitcoin purchases


Michael Saylor may be a visionary - but as an investor I often feel like I'm being presented with a fait accompli. Bitcoin purchases no longer seem like strategically placed investments, but like one-sided bets on ever new all-time highs, regardless of the timing or market environment. As well-intentioned as the narrative is, there is a lack of clear, shareholder-friendly communication.


4.

What remains of the leverage effect?


The crucial point: the hoped-for leverage effect that made the MSTR share attractive to me no longer seems to exist. Despite a new all-time high for Bitcoin today - the share remains frozen. The Bitcoin share ratio continues to rise, but $MSTR (-3,86 %) does not follow accordingly. If BTC rises 3-4% and the share price does not react at all or even reacts negatively, then it becomes clear that the narrative no longer holds.

The only leverage effect I can feel is the downward one.


Today I decided to set a stop loss at €350.

If this is executed, I will forget about the share for a while and possibly get back in at more favorable prices.

prices again.


What do you think of the share and what was your experience?


Lg

Don 💸

attachment
17
46 Commentaires

image de profil
What surprises me is that despite the fact that bitcoin is rising so well, the strategy is not getting off the ground - that was different 6 months ago. It even cracked the 500 euro mark. Well, yes.
4
image de profil
@Semos25 That's the point that annoys me the most. Everyone screams prices when this and that happens, but in the end it's just hot air. Where is the leverage effect, where is the volatility?
image de profil
@der_Don Metaplanet goes down better 🫣
image de profil
@Semos25 at some point the valuation is just too high?
image de profil
@Semos25 was about to say. That's even more depressing. And what's EVEN more depressing is that I discovered Metaplanet at €2 a share but didn't put a cent in.
3
image de profil
@WarrenamBuffet Yes, that may well be possible. I'm just wondering whether I should sell 🤔
1
image de profil
@Semos25 You can wait a little longer. Bitcoin is currently performing well. If nothing happens with Strategy in a few weeks, you can sell if you are dissatisfied with the development.
image de profil
@WarrenamBuffet I'm also still waiting. As I said SL at 350€ and should we see the 400€ again I will sell. Emphasis on should...
1
image de profil
@der_Don yes, of course that hurts, but how were you supposed to know that it would go down like that? I read the share for the first time at @Tenbagger2024. What can I say, the next one is sure to come 😇
image de profil
@Semos25
The two of us will discover a new one 🚀
image de profil
@Tenbagger2024 I still have time until September 😂
Voir toutes les 11 autres réponses
image de profil
88.92% returns (40% realized from last year) and with room to run. I think I'm going to let it cook a little longer.

$MSTR has been on the rise now since April 6th and going sideways for 2 weeks. I don't know what you're going on about, as it has been following the $BTC price pretty much exactly. Don't be surprised that as Bitcoin has hit an ATH, profit taking pushes the price sideways a little further before another push up.

I'm confident that Bitcoin still has a little pump in her, and that Strategy will follow.

Have patience.
3
Not invested in $MSTR , but all the points mentioned above is the whole strategy of this company. For example, Diluting shares to increase BTC yield per share is exactly what they sell. Buying whenever possible is their whole game plan.

Ofcourse you cannot agree with the company and then you should definitely sell. But I dont understand your frustrations since that is exactly what is advertised (to me).
2
And it is understandable the share price doesn't correlate to $BTC , since a fair chunck of their investors are now coming from ETFs I think
image de profil
I would like to thank you and all the others who willingly provide liquidity to the markets and even after realizing that an investment is green, do not sell immediately, but set an even lower SL so that the loss is even higher. Our profits have to come from somewhere. Thanks again!
1
image de profil
Same feelings. My expectation would also be a strong price at a new bitcoin all-time high!
1
image de profil
The allocation strategy is not leverage. The financial magic is that the stock goes up even if BTC goes down. BTW $3350 is the new strategy :D
1
image de profil
Hi, I've been at $MSTR since 2021. The leverage effect exists, but the development is by no means 1:1. MSTR often doesn't do much for months and then rises by 80% in 3 weeks.......even downwards. It is not possible to predict when the massive jump upwards or the hard fall downwards will occur. If you buy $MSTR then with a longer perspective than 6 months.
1
image de profil
Last year I sold my Bitcoin in the trouble-free area and bought it for 600 k Mstr. My Bitcoin position would currently be worth 879 k. My Mstr position is currently worth 1,258,000. Would still be subject to withholding tax. Highest value was 2 million in November. I will continue to hold the share and have no concerns.
1
image de profil
That's why I'm thinking about going back to $3350 👀🚀
Bro, Bitcoin is tax-free after one year. Why are you buying $MSTR?
image de profil
@user5ca946a11b6a4278 I don't know who told you this Bro, but if you sell any Crypto you are liable to capital gains... at least in my country.
image de profil
@flush_hatch in Germany Cryptos are Tax Free After holding them 1 year
3
image de profil
@user5ca946a11b6a4278 Well, because it doesn't just 1:! BTC price movements...
image de profil
I continue to hold. YTD 25%, not far from the ATH.
BUT, you are definitely right with your statements, it is bobbing along...
I was wondering whether this might have something to do with the fact that the entry price has risen enormously due to the many purchases (which it certainly has), which is why the leverage is no longer working so well.
image de profil
Hands off the Ponzi
image de profil
So something strange, Bitcoin +3% and mstr -0.8% ??? I think they're out for me now
image de profil
@wealth_navigator_64 I don't know. I think I'll hold on to the share. I don't want to sell it yet. I think there's still a bit of room for improvement.
1
image de profil
@der_Don I was also very convinced but if she continues like this now I'm out
image de profil
Share is a complete joke :)
be also aware that the continuos share diluition create a big leverage on the company... and if the btc price drop... the fault risks are very high
image de profil
bro buys a memecoin and after 6 months complains that the bottomless ATH has not yet been broken.
Because patience is a virtue.
image de profil
@der_Don Take a look at the current valuation of $100bn compared to a Bitcoin stock of around $64bn. Logically, shares will be issued as long as this difference exists. That's why I don't understand how you can invest in the stock without considering such things and then wonder about the dilution.
Invest in real business where people are employed, products are made, taxes are paid. That creates direct and indirect returns for the real world and the real economy and society and you.
Participez à la conversation