3J·

Bloomberg: Ai Bubble?

We have to look at the situation in the long term. At the moment, these are real profits that are invested as capex. However, as long as there is always a return in the future, this could lead to a problem in the long term. $IREN (-9,15 %)
$CIFR (-8,23 %)
$NVDA (-6,14 %)
$MSFT (-3,3 %)
$AMD (-10,01 %)

"The AI investment cycle shown is based on massive funding loops among the tech giants, but sustainability is being discussed. Bloomberg and others note that it is fueled by hype and trillions in capex that may be viable if AI generates real gains (e.g., through productivity gains). It could implode from inflated expectations, failure to monetize (like the dotcom era), rising energy costs, regulatory hurdles or economic slowdowns, according to Reuters and Fortune analysis."

17 Commentaires

Mirko@Percula

At the moment I see it differently.
Compared to the dotcom bubble, these companies are generating profits. As long as there is no overcapacity!
Back in the dotcom bubble, there was no turnover and every nukelbude rose dramatically.
Today is a completely different time and not comparable.

•

Aktienfox@Aktienfox

@Percula yes, in my opinion we are not in a bubble for the time being, but we could move into one.

The companies like MSFT have a real profit, but not in the AI sector and that's the point, the companies invest a lot of cash in R&D to satisfy the investors. Nevertheless, the direct profit is not yet there, especially in B2C, and so the profit of other segments is invested in it. So it's not about the direct investments. It's about the investments at Nvdidia, which flow back again and again and 70% of which is retained through the margin. This cannot be sustainable if this continues for the next 1-3 years and it is currently coming to a head.

•

ChrisKay@ChrisKay

@Aktienfox I agree. Everything is still in the "green" area, but we are already heading for a bubble. Now it's time to "ride the wave" and have an exit plan

•

GeldGenie@GeldGenie

@Aktienfox What does "not in the AI industry" mean?

MSFT products have been enhanced & actively monetized by AI. How many additional profits - or, above all, losses - result from this is hardly comprehensible.

Or what are you referring to in your statement? 👍

•

Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@Aktienfox it's not about making a lot of money with AI, look at how the labor market has moved since the release of ChatGPT, it's about tech and or old economy companies becoming more efficient. By the way, we are already in a bubble, a bubble is not a bad thing, but it is not clear at what stage because according to most experts this could easily go on for another 12 months.

•

Imvestment4Life@Investment4Life

If AI companies rise 100% and fall 30% to consolidate.
Were we then in a bubble?

••

Epi@Epi

@Percula "Back in the dotcom bubble", the big blade manufacturers also made huge profits, e.g. Cisco, EMC, Intel. Just like today. The service providers only had growth without profits. Just like today.
The Internet will change the world, they said. Just like today.

AI will also change the world. But first we need a few years to consolidate the new technology, like in 2001-2003.

•

CD@Carpe-Diem

@Percula AI is a trend and every company wants to show that they are on board because their competitors have already done it or are doing it. A simple example I saw recently. A market leader renamed their legacy software and added "AI". It hasn't changed anything, but looks modern. Same software, same clients 😀

••

Michael@DocM01

"Everything is different this time" 😂

••

hobbyist@pn3069

20H

@Percula Overcapacity is abundant in AI - everyone is building their own LLMs hoping that their solutions are more intelligent, yet they all are "artificial." The scenario now rhymes with dotcom scenario. My humble opinion.

••

Global I.@gloinvest

The "circular" argument falls flat because the outgoing capital flows include the conversion of debt into equity. Are the valuations extended? Yes. Will some of the companies grow into these valuations? Yes. Beyond that? For sure. Will companies die? For sure. What is important? Isolate the winners now and don't invest in every company without looking. The decisive difference to 99, however, is that the majority of companies with a KUV of 50+ brought their capitalization to the market via IPOs. There was no MAG7 situation with the shiny balance sheets. If you don't want to get involved in research or can't or don't want to follow Tom Lee and Dan Ives, you can simply buy 5 of the 7 and have no default risk. You don't have to invest in UiPath or Iren to be there.

•

KingC@RaphGM

This chart shows how ridiculous the situation is starting to look...

•

Global I.@gloinvest

@RaphGM no. This diagram shows that companies are intertwined and always have been. In my company, I accept financing offers from suppliers with a kiss on the hand that reduce the financing costs at the passing bank by 20%. And we are not talking about equity here.

•

Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

@RaphGM You can see that this generates revenue growth for investors, so why should that be ridiculous?

••

Der Spekulant@Derspekulant1

The argument of an AI bubble has been used for over a year - while the turnover of the relevant companies continues to grow at double-digit rates per quarter. As long as there is real sales growth, it is difficult to speak of a speculative bubble.

Current labor market data also shows this: Employment is falling, while productivity and efficiency are rising thanks to AI applications. This is a clear signal that AI is having a real economic impact - not just hype.

Investment banks also emphasize that the potential of the technology is still underestimated. At the same time, US companies are cooperating more closely than ever before in the AI ecosystem to secure technological and geopolitical leadership.

➡️ This is not a bubble - this is the industrial revolution of the data economy.

•

Imvestment4Life@Investment4Life

Google has increased the fees for and because of Gemini.
So of course $MSFT $GOOGL make cash with their AI tools.

•

Shell@Shell

Nvidia being at the centre of it all says a lot about Nvidia’s dominance and importance in the AI sector.

•