The health insurance sector has been crushed in 2025. UnitedHealth, Centene, Molina – all down ~40%. Wall Street calls it an “uninvestable sector.”
But Oscar looks different:
- 2M+ members (+28% YoY)
- Q2 revenue: $2.86B (+29% YoY, run-rate ~$11.8B)
- $2.6B cash vs only $0.3B debt
- EV/Sales = 0.1x while peers trade 0.4–0.6x
Yes, Medical Loss Ratio spiked to 91% and 2025 is a “reset year.” But management guides for profitability in 2026, and the GPT-5 Superagent makes Oscar look like a healthtech platform, not a traditional insurer.
📌 Street consensus: $10–12.
📌 My fair value: $25–34.