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Epi
@Epi
1Année·

The day before yesterday $SIVB yesterday $CSGN tomorrow $DBK (+0,12 %) ?


Credit default swaps (CDS) on Deutsche Bank are rising dramatically right now! Share price falls like a stone and pulls the DAX down.


Those who experienced 2008 know what this means. And anyone who knows Deutsche Bank's balance sheet a little has an idea of what a collapse would mean for Germany and the global economy.


And then there's this: "There is no cause for concern about the German banking sector, a spokesperson for the German government said on Friday." (Reuters)


Just a hint of what to keep on your radar for the next few days.


Addendum: The CDS on $DBK (+0,12 %) now indicate an insolvency risk of 25% within the next 5 years. By the way, derivatives worth around €50,000 billion are on the books.

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22 Commentaires
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Sparfuchs@Reinecke
1Année
Please more drama 🆘 That's not really a graph of the course of the day that jumps around there funny ? Especially the first ... how do you come to such numbers ? I bought DBK on 3/21/2013 for 8.60 and they were not above 10 until today so at most you can have a price trend in dollars. As already said "more drama, pls".
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@KleinviehmachtMist The stock chart is a daily chart in USD (because of daily reference and more info than GC chart). The CDS chart is a yearly chart. Everything is in the charts. It should have become clear that it is only about information about a potentially dramatic event. To call SOS immediately, if someone warns about something, looks a little bit like ostrich principle.
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Lorenzo V.@vMatt263
1Année
@Epi Sometimes the ostrich principle is not a wrong tool. The bank run was also brought about "emotionally". CSGN has already been beaten up excessively hard by the market. The rest is in the media, Saudi commentary, etc.
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@Josi263 Maybe. I prefer to go through the world with my eyes open and prepare myself.
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Sparfuchs@Reinecke
1Année
@Epi I also did this - I took the profits at $DBK and invested in $PBB today. With my equity, I now have a dividend yield of almost 12%. I would be more worried about $CBK.
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Xantia@Xantia
1Année
The future belongs to the brave. CS was already poorly managed before; I bought properly into banks!
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Staatsmann@Staatsmann
1Année
It's just normal that insurance prices rise 😂 After an earthquake, elementary insurance against earthquakes is also more expensive. However, lessons have been learned from 2008. Deutsche Bank is one of the banks that cannot go bankrupt. 🤷🏼‍♂️
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@Staatsmann Then compare the CDS for $DBK with those for other European banks. There are remarkable differences. https://www.derivateverband.de/DEU/Transparenz/Credit-Default-Swaps
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@BearStearnsCFO Why? $CS didn't stop at €1.7 either.
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@BearStearnsCFO Saved 100% by the state... It's clear what this means for shareholders and stock markets.
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@BearStearnsCFO We will see. DB's derivatives volume is €50,000 billion. If only a fraction of this volume blows up, the state will not be able to save much.
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@BearStearnsCFO A profit of 5 billion is of little use if a year later there is a loss of 10 billion. I am not saying that this will happen, but the stock market does not trade in the past.
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@World-ETF-Getquin Are you going to elaborate or leave it at a blunt insult?
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@World-ETF-Getquin DKB? That was probably nothing. Please try again!
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1Année
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Epi@Epi
1Année
@World-ETF-Getquin Yes, make a stupid comment, change it and laugh at the reaction to it. The main thing is to have fun! You're welcome.
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