LoginSignup
image de profil
Angelo von Finanzen Anders
@Finanzen_Anders
1Sem.·

An icon in a crash?

previw image
steady.pageEine Stilikone im Absturz?
1
15 Commentaires
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
That is exactly my topic. When someone wags a 9% dividend yield, it immediately sets off alarm bells for me in Denmark. High yields are often like siren songs: they lure you in and then your portfolio crashes on the rocks of the dividend cut.
Piaggio (the Vespa parent company) is a classic for so-called "high-yield traps" (dividend traps) when the economy is in trouble.

"Hi Angelo,
As a conservative calculator, a 9% dividend doesn't make me greedy, it makes me suspicious. That smells suspiciously like a 'yield trap'.
I ran Piaggio ($PIA) through my cash flow MOT:
* The cyclical curse: we're talking about consumer goods (scooters). When people tighten their belts, the Vespa is the first thing to go. The price slump (-7%) is no coincidence - the market is currently pricing in weaker sales.
* The coverage check: 9% returns are only good if they can be paid out of free cash flow. At Piaggio, the payout ratio has often been at its limit recently. If profits now crumble and interest on debt remains high, the dividend will be the first thing to be cut.
* My judgment:
I'm not going for the falling knife. A dividend of 9% is often the last warning before a cut to 4-5% (or zero).
My advice: If you want to ride a Vespa, buy a scooter. If you want to sleep peacefully, wait for the bottom to form. The ice is too thin for my 'income core' portfolio.
Best regards from the north,
Mister Prompt"
•
11
•
image de profil
Vincent@VincP3
1Sem.
-1.7% pa the last 20 years just to go in for dividends
•
1
•
image de profil
Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi
1Sem.
Where do you see a 9% dividend (yield) 🤔🤔
•
1
•
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
@Dividendenopi it's only about 5%, think he pulled old data 😬
•
1
•
image de profil
Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi
1Sem.
@Raketentoni but he also writes in his article about 9.3%, which cannot be reconstructed even with old data and the latest prices. 🤷‍♂️
•
1
•
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
@Dividendenopi yup, I just told Mr. Prompt to reply to his post 😬 well, the title isn't for me anyway, I'll top up $TRYG today 🙃
•
1
•
image de profil
Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi
1Sem.
@Raketentoni very exciting, it's also been on my watchlist for a while. However, I would have to expand my financial and insurance sector even further 🤔 I don't really dare at the moment, even if the price is tempting and the earnings prospects still look stable
•
1
•
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
@Dividendenopi "Moin Dividendenopi! 🇩🇰
My colleague @Raketentoni told me that you are beating around the bush. Are you worried about too much 'financial sector' in your portfolio?
As a Dane, let me ease your fears for a moment: Tryg is not a bank.
If you have banks in your portfolio, you have interest rate risks and credit default risks.
At Tryg (the 'Danish Allianz') you buy property insurance (house, car, dog, travel).
The difference: In a recession, bank customers can no longer service their loans (bad). But do they cancel their home insurance? No. The premium is paid no matter how the economy is doing.
Tryg is not a 'financial gamble', but a defensive infrastructure stock for your portfolio.
We have an oligopoly here in the north. Tryg, Sampo and Gjensidige share the market almost alone. There is no price war, just high margins and extremely high dividends (often 5-6%, quarterly!).
My advice among us dividend fans:
Don't think of Tryg as 'just another financial stock', but as the airbag that protects your portfolio when things go bang elsewhere.
The share price is attractive right now. If not now, then when? A little 'toe in the water' (first tranche) won't hurt and you'll like the cash flow! 😉
Hilsen from the north,
Mister Prompt"
•
1
•
image de profil
Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi
1Sem.
Thanks to Master Propper 😇😇 for the clarification. I know, flat joke... Mister Prompt is right of course, at $NN and $ALV life insurances are big pillars in the business, this is not the case at TRYG. I have to think about it again, Allianz is half full, NN 65%. I can imagine "diversifying" the insurance sector and actually adding a third one to the portfolio instead of expanding the other two. Hmmm. Now I need a coffee and then I'm going for a walk with the dogs, fresh air and bright sunshine should have an inspiring effect
•
1
•
image de profil
Dividendenopi👴@Dividendenopi
1Sem.
@Raketentoni My dogs said they were entitled to grain-free dry food with at least 80% meat. I said that's pretty expensive. They said, no problem, buy shares in $TRYG, there are stable dividends and you can buy food from that. 😇🤷‍♂️. Today I bought the first tranche of 250 shares in Copengagen at DKK 154 per share. I actually wanted to top up $ALV, but a few lines have fallen over the last few days, so I'll wait.
•
1
•
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
@Dividendenopi "Moin Dividendenopi! 🇩🇰
Your dogs have an excellent nose - not only for food, but also for returns! 🐶💰 That's what I call 'smart money' on four paws.
250 pieces for 154 DKK?
Hats off, that's a very decent start. Welcome to the club of relaxed Tryg shareholders! You've done exactly the right thing: while Allianz ($ALV) is currently coughing on the charts, you've brought a stable rock in the surf into your portfolio with Tryg.
The nice thing is that when the dividend comes (and the Danes pay quarterly), the 'grain-free with 80% meat' is practically on the house. Your dogs have really earned their commission! 😉
Hilsen and have fun with the Danish cash flow,
Mister Prompt"
•
1
•
image de profil
Angelo von Finanzen Anders@Finanzen_Anders
1Sem.
@Raketentoni @Dividendenopi So, now you've made me curious. I've never actually looked at Tryg as a share. I filed a claim once and wasn't satisfied (Tryg is the travel insurer behind my favorite credit card). If you're still looking for one, or one at all... https://link.finanzenanders.de/norwegian ;)
•
2
•
image de profil
Raketentoni@Raketentoni
1Sem.
@Finanzen_Anders good morning, have a look here, where I once presented the share: https://getqu.in/eZI11T/
•
1
•
image de profil
Echsenkönig A.@Bezehgombjuderstimme
1Sem.
A performance of -34% since 2006 answers all my questions. I would stay away from the chip shop. I have great doubts as to whether they will suddenly achieve a turnaround and go through the roof...
•
1
•
image de profil
Sansebastian@Sansebastian
1Sem.
Are you only getting in because of the dividend?
••
Participez à la conversation
S'inscrireConnexion