Caterpillar Action Forum

#beerchallenge from Kölle

My favorite place every 14 days to let the stock market be the stock market and simply enjoy life, the emotions and the stupid chatter of my over-70 neighbors.

Next week will be relatively quiet for me, as I'm traveling in Switzerland and only have 3 open trades.

$ASML (-0,38 %) which is still just in profit and has fortunately held the zone.

$TSN (+2,26 %) where I am considering exiting with +20% before the figures on Tuesday

And since the sell-off Friday $CAT (-2,91 %)

Have a nice weekend 🫡

All of these shares reached new ALL-TIME HIGHS at some point today ⤵️

Nvidia $NVDA (-0,03 %)

Amazon $AMZN (-0,02 %)

Netflix $NFLX (+0,37 %)

Walmart $WMT (+1,81 %)

JPMorgan $JPM (+0,97 %)

Goldman Sachs $GOS0

Palantir $PLTR (+5,8 %)

Blackrock $BLK

American Express $AXP (+0,52 %)

Arista $ANET (+0,19 %)

Apollo $APO PR A

Blackstone $BX (+1,53 %)

Booking $BKNG (+1,31 %)

Instacart $INSTA

Caterpillar $CAT (-2,91 %)

Capital One $COF (+1,17 %)

Discover Financial $DFS (+0,81 %)

Electronic Arts $EA (-0,11 %)

GE Vernova $GEV (+2,57 %)

Hilton $HLT (+1,96 %)

Howmet $HWM (+2,93 %)

Interactive Brokers $IBKR (+1,86 %)

$KKR (+2,31 %)

Cheniere $LNG (+2,62 %)

Morgan Stanley $MS (+1,35 %)

Marriot $MAR (+1,62 %)

Nasdaq $NDAQ (+1,15 %)

News Corp $NWSA (+2,21 %)

Oracle $ORCL (+2,18 %)

Palo Alto $PANW (+1,75 %)

ServiceNow $NOW (+0,65 %)

Steel Dynamics $STLD (+1,87 %)

Stryker $SYK (+2,44 %)

Royal Caribbean $RCL (+2,93 %)

Reddit $RDDT (+1,7 %)

Trade Desk $TTD (+3,69 %)

Visa $V (+1,22 %)

Wells Fargo $WFC (+1,06 %)

Who benefits from the reconstruction of Ukraine?

Yes, it's a macabre topic - but the reconstruction of Ukraine will bring investment and economic opportunities that are already being talked about. The question is: which companies could benefit the most? Will construction companies like $DG (-0,02 %) and $HOT (-1,48 %) , machine manufacturers such as $CAT (-2,91 %) or energy companies like $ENR (+2,43 %) get the biggest contracts? Who do you think could play a central role in this reconstruction project?

Caterpillar Q3 2024 $CAT (-2,91 %)

Financial performance

Revenue and earnings: In the third quarter of 2024, Caterpillar generated revenue of $16.1 billion, a slight decrease compared to $16.8 billion in the third quarter of 2023.

Operating profit: Operating profit for Q3 2024 was $3.1 billion, a decrease of 9% compared to $3.4 billion in the prior year quarter.

Adjusted earnings per share: Adjusted earnings per share were $5.17 in Q3 2024, compared to $5.52 in Q3 2023.

Balance sheet overview

Total assets: As at September 30, 2024, total assets amounted to USD 86.3 billion, a slight decrease compared to USD 87.5 billion at the end of 2023.

Total liabilities: Total liabilities amounted to USD 66.9 billion as at September 30, 2024, compared to USD 68.0 billion at the end of 2023.

Details of the income statement

Operating profit margin: The operating profit margin for Q3 2024 was 19.5%, while the adjusted operating profit margin was 20.0%.

Restructuring costs: Restructuring costs impacted earnings per share by USD 0.11 in Q3 2024.

Cash flow overview

ME&T free cash flow: For Q3 2024, ME&T free cash flow amounted to USD 5.6 billion, with expectations to be at the upper end of the annual target range of USD 5 to 10 billion.

Key performance indicators and profitability metrics

Adjusted operating profit margin target: Adjusted operating profit margin target is in the range of 10-14% on $42 billion in sales and 18-22% on $72 billion.

Segment information

Construction: Sales fell by 9% to USD 7.0 billion in Q3 2024, while segment profit declined by 20%.

Raw materials industry: Sales fell by 10% to USD 3.0 billion, with a 15% decline in segment profit.

Financial Products: Total revenue increased by 6% to USD 1.034 billion and segment profit increased by 21%.

Competitive position

The results reflect the benefits of the diversity of Caterpillar's end markets, which support long-term profitable growth.

Forecasts and management commentary

Outlook 2024: Revenue and earnings are expected to be slightly below prior expectations, but guidance for adjusted operating profit margin and adjusted earnings per share remain unchanged.

Free cash flow: ME&T free cash flow for the full year is expected to be near the upper end of the $5 billion to $10 billion target range.

Risks and opportunities

Caterpillar continues to execute its strategy for long-term profitable growth and capitalizes on the diversity of its end markets

Summary of results

Caterpillar's performance in the third quarter of 2024 showed a slight decline in operating profit and adjusted earnings per share compared to the prior year, mainly due to lower sales volumes in key segments such as construction and materials handling. Nevertheless, the company maintains a strong cash flow position and expects to achieve its financial targets for the full year. The diversity of its end markets remains a strategic advantage that supports its long-term growth targets.

Positive Aspects

Growth in the Financial Products segment: The Financial Products segment reported a 6% increase in total revenues to USD 1.034 billion, while segment profit increased by 21%. This growth was boosted by higher average yield activities and financing rates.

Strong free cash flow: ME&T free cash flow for Q3 2024 amounted to USD 5.6 billion, and the company expects full-year free cash flow to be near the upper end of the target range of USD 5 to 10 billion. This indicates strong cash generation capabilities.

Adjusted operating profit margin: The company delivered a robust adjusted operating profit margin for Q3 2024, which is expected to be above the upper end of the full year target range.

Diversity of end markets: Caterpillar's results reflect the benefits of the diversity of its end markets, which supports long-term profitable growth and provides resilience to market volatility.

Stable tax rate: The effective tax rate for Q3 2024 was 20.7%, down slightly from 20.9% in the prior year, helping to maintain profitability.

Negative aspects

Decline in sales in the Construction Industry segment: The Construction Industry segment reported a 9% decline in total revenue to USD 7.0 billion, while segment profit fell by 20%. This decline was mainly due to lower sales volumes in North America and unfavorable currency developments in Latin America and the Asia-Pacific region.

Loss in the Resource Industry segment: Sales in the Resources Industry segment fell by 10% to USD 3.0 billion, with a 15% decline in segment profit, largely due to lower sales volumes.

Overall revenue decline: Total revenue for Q3 2024 was slightly below the previous year's level, indicating challenges in maintaining growth in the various segments.

Impact of restructuring costs: Restructuring costs negatively impacted earnings per share by $0.11, which could indicate ongoing adjustments and potential disruption.

Earnings next week 🚀

$AMZN (-0,02 %)

$AMD (-0,12 %)

$SOFI (+9,03 %)

$MSFT (+0,15 %)

$AAPL (+0,65 %)

$META (+0,4 %)

$GOOGL (-0,6 %)

$INTC (+0,53 %)

$PYPL (+3 %)

$LLY (+5,07 %)

$F (+0,87 %)

$SNAP (-1,92 %)

$CMG (+1,99 %)

$COIN (+8,63 %)

$UBER (-1,3 %)

$BP. (-1,72 %)

$MCD (+2,19 %)

$HOOD (+5,61 %)

$PFE (-1,75 %)

$V (+1,22 %)

$NOVA (-10,53 %)

$ETSY (+0,18 %)

$ON (-1,56 %)

$FUBO

$PTON (+11,28 %)

$TMDX (+1,8 %)

$FSLR (-0,63 %)

$RIOT (+5,52 %)

$ROKU (+4,07 %)

$RCL

$CVNA (+1,98 %)

$CVX (+0,94 %)

$CAT (-2,91 %)

$HUM (+1,62 %)

$CDNS (+0,45 %)

$SBUX (+2,49 %)

$WM (+2,82 %)

$NXT

$THC

$JBLU (+4,44 %)

$CROX (-0,45 %)

$XOM (+0,74 %)

$MRK (+2,67 %)

$RDDT (+1,7 %)

$PHIA (-2,73 %)

$VFC (-2,78 %)

$RIG

$COP (+0,01 %)

$EPD

$RMBS (-0,21 %)

Given the continued stability of real estate prices and expected demand driven by factors such as urbanization and immigration (at least in the US), I see several sectors and companies benefiting from this trend:

REITs, $DHI (+0,99 %) , $LEN (+1,69 %) , $HD (+2,38 %) , $LOW (+2,33 %) , $CAT (-2,91 %)

However, there has already been a good boost in the current YTD.

• Do you think there is still potential here?

• Or is everything else already priced in?

Have a nice Sunday everyone!

Good morning,

I haven't had any individual stocks in the last 10 years, but have now decided to invest in 10 stocks again. I have already chosen 9 of them, one is still missing. Perhaps someone can give me a tip.

I have the following criteria:

-No tech, I have enough of that already

-If possible, no USA. But this is not an exclusion

-Dividend doesn't matter

-Investment horizon > 10 years

Here are the 9:

$LOTB (+1,4 %)

$CTAS (+3,42 %)

$LIN (-0,49 %)

$8001 (+0,85 %)

$RMS (-3,64 %)

$LMT (+3,53 %)

$V (+1,22 %)

$BRK.B (+1,54 %)

$BLK

If there are any concerns about the nine, I will gladly take some out again

Update: @RealMichaelScott Someone has asked in the comments for the reasoning behind my selection so far. I'd like to answer that here:

There are a few more smart criteria that fit my preferences and gut feeling. These would be:

I like stocks with long-phase linear growth, see $CTAS (+3,42 %) in the last 12 months and $8001 (+0,85 %) . $LOTB (+1,4 %) is one of the best stocks in the world in my opinion. Exponential growth will certainly turn around at some point, but I don't like cyclicals. I also value positive free cash flow. I am not interested in P/E ratios (for whatever reason). Another reason is diversity with the 10 stocks, I'm not sure yet. $LIN (-0,49 %) was and would still be the only DAX stock that makes it to me. I would have gladly done without Armor, but unfortunately it will be part of the next 10 years, so $LMT (+3,53 %) . I'm also looking for stocks that closed 2020 and 2022 on a positive note.

$BRK.B (+1,54 %) is somehow part of such a portfolio:-), I'm not sure about $V (+1,22 %) I'm not sure about. Thanks for the suggestions on medical+health, that's definitely still missing. I still have doubts about energy. Due to the climate problem, I don't know where the journey will take us.

Update 2: Thanks for all the good suggestions. I took advantage of the bad weather and the window day today and have now made my decision:

$BLK (+1,41 %) flies out again, $V (+1,22 %) stays

Instead there are 2 new ones from your suggestions:

$CAT (-2,91 %) and $NOVO B (+0,73 %)

So it looks like this:

$LOTB (+1,4 %)

$CTAS (+3,42 %)

$LIN (-0,49 %)

$8001 (+0,85 %)

$RMS (-3,64 %)

$LMT (+3,53 %)

$V (+1,22 %)

$BRK.B (+1,54 %)

$CAT (-2,91 %)

$NOVO B (+0,73 %)

I did a backtest from 1.1.2020, all equally weighted

Average annual return: 24.32%

Total return approx. twice as high as the S&P ETF $CSPX (+1,03 %)

In the difficult years 2020 and 2022 each over 13% plus

10k became 28.5k with dividends in the 4.5 years

Nice linear progression over the entire term:

But unfortunately: forecasts are difficult, especially when they concern the future!

Week in review 28.09.

New all-time highs for DAX, Dow Jones, S&P 500, Gold, GE Vernova, Meta, Netflix, SAP, Vistra Corp, Walmart 👑🥇 $LYY7 (-1,04 %)
$CSPX (+1,03 %)
$ABX (+0,47 %)
$GEV (+2,57 %)
$META (+0,4 %)
$NFLX (+0,37 %)
$SAP (-0,4 %)
$VST (+5,85 %)
$WMT (+1,81 %)

New 52-week highs for 3M, Air Products, Alibaba, Arista Networks, Barrick Gold, Bank of Nova Scotia, BlackRock, Caterpillar, Constellation Energy, DuPont, HSBC, Infosys, Live Nation, McDonald's, Palantir, PayPal, Public Storage, Royal Bank of Canada, Royal Caribbean, Sea Ltd, Spotify, Tangier 💵📈 $PLTR (+5,8 %)
$9988 (-5,04 %)
$BABA (-5,18 %)
$BLK
$CAT (-2,91 %)
$BNS (+0,04 %)
$STZ (+1,23 %)
$DD (-2,43 %)
$HSBA (-2,41 %)
$HSBC (-2,53 %)
$INFY
$LYV (+0,74 %)
$MCD (+2,19 %)$PUB
$PUB
$RCL (+2,93 %)
$SEA (+0 %)
$SKT (+0,98 %)

Bitcoin with new 1-month high, +22% in three weeks since the low on 07.09. from 52k$ to 66k$, +150% in 12 months📉📈 $BTC (+0,5 %)

PayPal's own stablecoin PYUSD (crypto) is growing strongly and is now one of the top 100 cryptos by market capitalization at 95th place 💰 $PYPL (+3 %)

Palantir with inclusion in the S&P 500 on Monday #PLTRgang 🤜🤛👊✊ $PLTR (+5,8 %)

Uber is working with Google's Waymo (Alphabet) and wants to offer robotaxis for a surcharge 🚗🤖 $UBER (-1,3 %)
$GOOGL (-0,6 %)
$GOOG (-0,66 %)

After the ECB and FED, China has also turned on the money printer *brrr brrr*, plus a big economic stimulus program, China stocks therefore have their best week in 10 years, car and luxury stocks with Chinese business are therefore rising 🖨🇨🇳 $MC (-2,6 %)
$P911 (-1,22 %)
$BMW (-3,91 %)
$MBG (-3,33 %)

AMD CEO and Nvidia CEO confirm continued high demand for AI chips 🧠🤖, Nvidia CEO does not want to sell any more of his own shares for the time being. $AMD (-0,12 %)
$NVDA (-0,03 %)

Upcoming Playstation 6 with AMD chip again, but AMD will leave the high-end graphics card market for PC gamers and try to scale more strongly in the mid and lower segments. Nvidia would then have a monopoly 🎮 $SONY (+10,09 %)
$6758 (+9,38 %)

Super Micro suspected of accounting fraud. US justice is apparently already investigating according to an insider, -62% share price in three months 🔍👮 $SMCI

AI needs a lot of electricity and nuclear power plants are being reactivated in the USA. In Germany, it's the other way around due to the world's stupidest energy policy. US electricity provider shares, uranium mines - shares and ETFs are rising. ⚛️⚡️ (see podcast episode 57 "Buy High. Sell Low." pinned to my profile at the top) $URNM
$URA (-0,7 %)
$UEC (-0,03 %)

Micron with good quarterly figures and +13% share price, semiconductor stocks rally 💻📈 $MU (-0,29 %)

Costco - quarterly figures mixed, EPS exceeds estimates but sales worse than expected, share price falls slightly 🛒 $COST (+3,88 %)

McDonald's increases quarterly dividend by 6% to 1.77$. Since the first dividend payment in 1976, the payout has been increased 48 years in a row. 🍟🍔 $MCD (+2,19 %)

Investigation initiated against Visa 💳 and SAP 💻 in the USA for illegal price fixing $V (+1,22 %)
$SAP (-0,4 %)

Oil price falls again, Shell & Co. on the way to 1-year low 🛢⛽️ $SHEL (-1,61 %)
$GB00B03MM408
$RDS.A

Meta releases VR glasses Quest 3s for €330 from 15.10.24 📱👓

Intel launches AI accelerator "Gaudi 3" as an alternative to Nvidia's H100. IBM, Google & Dell as first customers. 🧠 $INTC (+0,53 %)

US debt level climbs above 35 trillion dollars for the first time 🖨💵

Ubisoft share price collapses due to postponement of "Assassin's Creed: Shadows", -70% 1-year performance 🎮📉 $UBI (-0,06 %)

DHL raises outlook / growth forecast until 2030 and increases letter postage by 10.5% in Germany from 2025 📦✉️📯 $DHL (+0,1 %)

BASF struggles with high energy prices and weak demand, threat of plant closure and dividend cut 🇩🇪📉 $BAS (-5,27 %)

Adidas (+28%) significantly better than Nike (-18%) since the beginning of the year ⚽️🏀👟 $ADS (-1,81 %)
$NKE (+0,58 %)

Takeover poker at Commerzbank by Ital. Unicredit continues 🏦🇮🇹🇩🇪 $CBK (-1,43 %)
$UCG (-0,51 %)

Jefferies issued a buy recommendation for BioNTech and sees the antibody BNT327 against cancer as a potential massive sales driver. 👨‍⚕️⚕️💊 $DE000A0V9BC4

Mutares -14% because shortseller Gotham City raises serious allegations against the SDAX member: Ponzi scheme, false accounting and circular business model 🔍👮 $MUX (-3,12 %)

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