Bank of America Action Forum

American Express
$AXP (+0,52 %) has secured its place as the second largest holding in the portfolio of Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (+1,54 %) and thus secured Bank of America
$BAC (+1,3 %) from second place.

Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway $BRK.B (+1,54 %) currently hold Apple shares
$AAPL (+0,65 %) worth about 69,9 billion US dollars (as at the end of the 3rd quarter), compared with a previous value of 84,0 billion US dollars.

The cash position at the end of the third quarter amounted to 325,2 billion US dollars, a new all-time high, up from 276,9 billion US dollars at the end of the second quarter.

The Apple share rose by 10.75 % in the third quarter.

If Buffett had not sold any Apple shares during the quarter, his position would now be around 93,3 billion US dollars.

At the end of the third quarter, the largest equity holdings Warren Buffett and Berkshire Hathaway were as follows:

-25,7 % - Apple
$AAPL (+0,65 %)(compared to 29.6% at the end of Q2)

-15,1 % - American Express
$AXP (+0,52 %)

-11,7 % - Bank of America
$BAC (+1,3 %)

-10,6 % - Coca-Cola $KO (+1,1 %)

-6,4 % - Chevron
$CVX (+0,94 %)

Photo: Bloomberg

Another great picture of Quartr

$MA (+0,88 %)
$V (+1,22 %)
$JPM (+0,97 %)
$BAC (+1,3 %)
$GOOGL (-0,6 %)
$AAPL (+0,65 %)

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming week.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/oVP-1JUmKxg?si=rCpJC26z5ARnLel1

Sunday:

Further deflationary pressure in China 🇨🇳. Inflation is at 0.4%. Producer prices are even falling.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/china-deflationsdruck-nimmt-im-september-zu-verbraucherinflation-kuehlt-ab/100078670.html

Monday:

$FRA (+2,15 %) Fraport will probably take over Kalamata Airport, as the operator of Frankfurt Airport is the only bidder. Fraport is paying 1.24 billion euros for the 40-year concession.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/dienstleister/griechenland-fraport-gibt-einziges-gebot-fuer-den-flughafen-kalamata-ab/100078535.html

Tuesday:

Good news from the ZEW economic survey, which is forecasting an upturn. In October, the barometer rose by 9.5 points to 13.1 points after 3 consecutive declines.

https://www.faz.net/aktuell/wirtschaft/mehr-wirtschaft/deutschlands-konjunktur-zew-prognostiziert-ersten-anstieg-110047697.html

$GS (+2,22 %) Goldman Sachs was able to increase its profit significantly by 45%. Above all, it was able to achieve significantly higher profits in equity trading. Also $BAC (+1,3 %) Bank of America and $C (+1,33 %) Citigroup also benefited from a better trading business. The new interest rate environment is making itself felt here.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/banken-versicherungen/banken/us-banken-goldman-sachs-steigert-gewinn-um-45-prozent/100079278.html

Thursday:

The ECB cuts the key interest rate again. Once again, the key interest rate is lowered by 25 basis points. The deposit rate is now 3.25%. This makes loans even cheaper. The inflation rate was also revised downwards again today to 1.7%.

https://www.wiwo.de/politik/konjunktur/ezb-entscheid-ezb-senkt-erneut-den-leitzins/30043474.html

Friday:

In August 2024, the EU again achieved a current account surplus. At 31 billion euros, this was slightly less than the 41 billion euros in the previous month. The forecast was around 42.5 billion euros.

https://www.ecb.europa.eu/press/stats/bop/2024/html/ecb.bp241018~016a3487ba.en.html

Most important dates in the coming week:

Wednesday: 15:45 Interest rate decision (Canada)

Thursday: 9:30 Purchasing Managers' Index (DE)

Friday: 10:00 ifo Business Climate (DE)

What other important dates can you think of?

#zinssatzentscheidung
#kanada
#ifo
#sandp

Podcast episode 60 "Buy High. Sell Low."

Banker interview part 2, job application, life, personal & private matters. Subscribe to the podcast, because part 3 is coming soon!

Spotify

https://open.spotify.com/episode/67iGQ3lcRqhxsQSXgsdHdY?si=pl4NBip0SK2HevoroljtQA

YouTube

https://youtu.be/_T1XtsyfKx4

Apple Podcast

https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/folge-60-b%C3%A4nker-interview-teil-2-bewerbung-leben-pers%C3%B6nliches/id1695869891?i=1000673078238

$DBK (-2,66 %)
$CBK (-1,43 %)
$BNP (+0,1 %)
$HSBC (-2,53 %)
$HSBA (-2,41 %)
$GLE (-0,55 %)
$ACA (-1,03 %)
$FUT
$MS (+1,35 %)
$GS (+2,22 %)
$C (+1,33 %)
$WFC (+1,06 %)
$SAN (-1,34 %)
$BAC (+1,3 %)
$USB (+2,13 %)
$RBC (+1,71 %)$NUBR33$BNS (+0,04 %)$PBB (-1,79 %)
#podcast
$SPOT (+0,87 %)
$AAPL (+0,65 %)
$GOOGL (-0,6 %)
$GOOG (-0,66 %)
#bank
#banken
#karriere
#geld
#job

14.10.2024

DAX with a new run-up to record highs? US reporting season could help + Tonies: A box conquers the world + 5 DATES that will be important this week

The reporting season in the USA and the ECB's expected interest rate cut on Thursday should provide fresh impetus for the German stock market in the new week. Billions in economic aid for China should also go down well with the stock market. The DAX could set new record highs. - The weekly outlook.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/maerkte-forex-zinsen/dax-mit-neuem-anlauf-auf-rekordhoehen-us-berichtssaison-koennte-helfen-20368031.html

Small box, big success: the interactive audio platform from Tonies $TNIE (+3,23 %) not only makes children's eyes light up. The investors also have every reason to be happy.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/medien-ittk-technologie/tonies-eine-box-erobert-die-welt-20367911.html

5 DATES that will be important this week

• 1. ZEW economic expectations rise in October

The economic expectations of investors surveyed by the Center for European Economic Research for Germany are likely to have risen again in October for the first time after three consecutive declines. Economists surveyed by Dow Jones Newswires forecast that the index has risen to 9.0 (September: 3.6) points. The situation assessment index is expected to rise to 84.3 (minus 84.5) points. The Sentix economic index surveyed among the same group of people has also risen.

>>> Tuesday, 15.10.2024; 11:00

• 2. investment banking gives US institutions a boost

According to JP Morgan $JPM (+0,97 %) and Wells Fargo $WFC (+1,06 %) the other major US banks present their figures for the third quarter. In particular Morgan Stanley $MS (+1,35 %) and Goldman Sachs $GS (+2,22 %) with their relatively large investment banks, are likely to benefit from the fact that activity on Wall Street has picked up again. The universal banks Citigroup $C (+1,33 %) and Bank of America $BAC (+1,3 %) will also feel this. However, they are also noticing the waning tailwind in the interest-bearing business.

>>> Bank of America, Morgan Stanley, Citigroup (Tuesday), Goldman Sachs (Wednesday)

• Wells Fargo reported an 11% drop in third-quarter profit to USD 5.1 billion, but beat analysts' expectations due to higher revenues at the investment bank. This led to a rise in the stock in pre-market trading, indicating a positive market reaction despite the earnings decline.
• JPMorgan Chase exceeded analysts' expectations in the third quarter with a profit of 12.9 billion US dollars, which led to a rise in the share price in pre-market trading. This strong increase in earnings compensated for higher loan loss provisions and could have a positive impact on the share price.

• 3. focus at Sartorius is on the outlook

Sartorius $SRT (-3,3 %) is likely to have recorded a rather meagre business performance in the third quarter. Analysts' consensus expectations are for sales revenue to be roughly on a par with the previous year, but this is mainly due to a low basis for comparison and not yet a recovery in organic growth. The focus is on the forecast, which the DAX-listed laboratory equipment supplier lowered in July. Sartorius had referred to the high volatility and limited predictability of short-term business development and only held out the prospect of increasing demand momentum for the final quarter. The succession of Group CEO Joachim Kreuzburg, who is not seeking a further term of office after his contract expires in November 2025, is also unclear.

>>> Thursday, October 17, 2024; 07:00

• 4. the ECB takes an extra step downwards

The European Central Bank (ECB) will probably not be able to escape the pull of falling inflation rates and weaker economic indicators. Statements from ECB Governing Council members of all stripes and data suggest that the ECB will decide on Thursday to cut its key interest rate by 25 basis points to 3.25 percent - a month after trying to avoid exactly this impression. Normally, central banks try to avoid such abrupt swings. However, one must give the ECB credit for the fact that it would only be implementing its promise to adjust interest rates to the data situation.

>>> Thursday, 17.10.2024; 14:15

• 5 China's economic problems are worsening

Economic growth in China could also fall short of official targets in the third quarter of 2024, write the economists at Bank of America (BofA) in a research note. Gross domestic product (GDP) growth is likely to slow to 4.6 percent in the third quarter after 4.7 percent in the second quarter, the economists expect. Beijing has set itself a growth target of 5 percent for the year as a whole. The reluctance of Chinese politicians to take major economic measures, together with contradictory political goals, is contributing to the downturn. Many experts are concerned. Analysts at Gavekal warned at a briefing that deflation is on the way and there is little sign that Beijing's efforts to stabilize the property market and improve consumer and business sentiment are working. For the rest of the world, China's worsening problems are increasing the risk of a global economic slowdown and putting pressure on commodity prices, with a focus on China.

>>> Friday, October 18, 2024; 04:00

Monday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

Stock market holiday Canada | Japan | US bond market (US equity markets are open, however)

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Fraport traffic figures for September

Untimed: Volkswagen Pre-Close-Call 3Q | Bawag quarterly figures

Economic data

• 02:00 SG: GDP 3rd quarter FORECAST: +2.0% yoy/+4.0% yoy previous: +0.4% yoy/+2.9% yoy
• 04:00 CN: Foreign trade September trade balance Forecast: +89.80 bn US dollars previous: +91.02 bn US dollars Exports Forecast: +6.0% yoy previous: +8.7% yoy
• Without time specification: AT: Opec oil market report October

Earnings next week 🗓️

$WBA (-1,4 %)

$UNH (+3,09 %)

$BAC (+1,3 %)

$C (+1,33 %)

$JNJ (+0,03 %)

$GS (+2,22 %)

$SCHW (+2,16 %)

$UAL (+3,22 %)

$ASML (-0,38 %)

$MS (+1,35 %)

$ABT (+2,48 %)

$TSM (+0,91 %)

$NFLX (+0,37 %)

$ISRG (+2,71 %)

$AXP (+0,52 %)

$PG (+3,31 %)

Today the inflation data is published, an overview of what the big players are saying:

• Bank of America
  $BAC (+1,3 %): 2.3%
• Barclays
  $BARC (-0,26 %): 2.3%
• BNP Paribas
  $BNP (+0,1 %): 2.3%
• Citigroup
  $C (+1,33 %): 2.2%
• Deutsche Bank
  $DBK (-2,66 %): 2.3%
• Goldman Sachs
  $GS (+2,22 %): 2.3%
• Jefferies
  $JEF (+2,32 %): 2.3%
• JP Morgan
  $JPM (+0,97 %): 2.3%
• Morgan Stanley
  $MS (+1,35 %): 2.3%
• Nomura
  $NMR (+2,82 %): 2.3%
• TD Securities
  $TD (+1,05 %): 2.3%
• Wells Fargo $WFC (+1,06 %): 2.3%

• UBS
  $UBSG (-1,95 %): 2.4%

Live coverage is of course exclusively available from me live on Getquin.