Bayer Action Forum

Week in review 12.10.

All-time highs for S&P 500, Dow Jones, Air Products & Chemicals, American Express, Arista Networks, Bank of New York Mellon, BlackRock, Caterpillar, CAVA, Fiserv, GE Vernova, Goldman Sachs, Mastercard, Morgan Stanley, Motorola Solutions, Piper Sandler, Royal Caribbean, Uber, Unum

52-week highs for Carnival, Commerzbank, GE Aerospace, Hilton Worldwide, MicroStrategy, Norwegian Cruise, Palantir, Ralph Lauren, Robinhood Markets, Sea Ltd. , Shake Shack, Tangier, Teledyne

Tesla Cybercab / Robotaxi planned from 2026 for under 30,000$. In addition, an autonomous bus with 20 seats was presented, share falls -8.1%, market is disappointed, -19% 1-year performance

Nvidia partner Hon Hai increases capacity to meet "crazy" AI demand, Nvidia shares +8.3% this week, +176% 1-year performance

AMD unveils MI325X AI accelerator to compete with Nvidia's H200, customers include Google, Microsoft, OpenAI, Dell, Oracle, Meta, Hewlett Packard Enterprise, Supermicro, Lenovo and Databricks, AMD launches EPYC 5th Gen Datacenter CPU to compete with Intel's Xeon, AMD currently has 34% market share in Datacenter CPUs, MI350 coming in 2025 to compete with Nvidia's Blackwell, AMD stock drops -4%, apparently sell the news event, +45% 1-year performance

92% of desktop processor sales at major German online retailer Mindfactory were from AMD last week, Intel only at 8% share and -36% 1-year performance

TSMC with good quarterly figures, share price rises slightly, +97% 1-year performance

JPMorgan with good quarterly figures, share +5.1%, +48% 1-year performance

Wells Fargo with good quarterly figures, share +6.5%, +49% 1-year performance

PepsiCo and Samsung with poor quarterly figures, shares fall slightly

Amazon Pharmacy announces same-day delivery of prescription drugs in 20 more US states and expands its service to almost half of the states in 2025, +43% % 1-year performance

Jefferies says Apple's hopes for an AI phone are overdone and high expectations are premature, Hold rating, +26% 1-year performance

The situation is similar at Microsoft after Oppenheimer downgraded its rating from "Outperform" to "Perform", it was the second such downgrade by analysts in recent weeks, AI sales are overestimated and shares have underperformed since July due to "AI fatigue", plus losses at OpenAI, +26% 1-year performance

Two Google scientists from the subsidiary DeepMind receive the Nobel Prize in Chemistry, they developed the AI model "AlphaFold2", which can be used to predict the structures of all 200 million known proteins, the AI is used in 190 countries, for example in the clarification of antibiotic resistance or the use of enzymes to break down plastics, Alphabet shareholders like this, +12% 1-year performance

Inperial Brands increases dividend, now pays out quarterly and buys back shares, share price rises 5%, +36% 1-year performance

FTX - customers will soon get their balances paid out after the crypto exchange went bankrupt in 2022 and the management was imprisoned

Shortseller Hindenburg Research with allegations of fraud and safety concerns for children at gaming service Roblox, share price falls -6%, even -70% since November 2021

After two very positive weeks, China stocks fall like a flash in the pan as the market expected more stimulus from the Chinese dictator. Dictator, Hang Seng with worst day since the 2008 financial crisis, this week

China strengthens real estate sector and signals more spending ahead, Finance Minister announces measures to support real estate sector today and government would now have more room to borrow and increase deficit, China also announces issuance of special government bonds today to bolster capitalization of its largest state-owned banks, Printer is coming

Fitch downgrades France's credit rating to negative due to higher deficits, government debt expected to rise to 118.5% of GDP by 2028

FTSE Russell: Greek equities on track for upgrade to developed markets, FTSE Russell to provide update as part of March 2025 review, Greek equity index up 53% since start of 2023

Porsche sells 7% fewer cars due to China slump by -29%, -5% North America but +7% Germany & Europe, -21% % 1-year performance

Deutsche Telekom increases dividend and launches share buyback program for € 2 bn, highest share price in 23 years, +33% 1-year performance

Commerzbank reaches highest share price since the euro crisis in 2011, +61% 1-year performance

Bayer with new lawsuit in the USA over PCBs, share price -7%, -41% 1-year performance

German industrial order intake fell unexpectedly sharply by 5.8% in August compared to the previous month

E.on CEO expects energy prices to rise in the long term thanks to higher taxes & levies and the world's stupidest energy policy

The Ampel expects the economy to shrink for the second year in a row, revising its GDP forecast for 2024 from +0.3% to -0.2%, only the second consecutive year of shrinking GDP since the fall of communism in 1990

After the pension insurance, the German long-term care insurance is also bankrupt, as recipients of citizens' benefits are not paying in and society is ageing, Lauterbach therefore wants to increase the monthly contribution for long-term care for all workers, so soon less net from gross again

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$NVDA (-0,03 %)
$AMD (-0,12 %)
$TSLA (+9,97 %)
$CBR
$INTC (+0,53 %)
$2330
$JPM (+0,97 %)
$WFC (+1,06 %)
$PEP (+1,38 %)
$AMZN (-0,02 %)
$GOOGL (-0,6 %)
$GOOGL (-0,6 %)
$AAPL (+0,65 %)
$MSFT (+0,15 %)
$IMB (+0,14 %)
$CNUA (-4,15 %)
$941
$9988 (-5,04 %)
$700 (-4,51 %)
$1211 (-3,83 %)
$P911 (-1,22 %)
$PAH3 (-2,05 %)
$DTE (+0,79 %)
$BAYN (-1,69 %)
$EOAN (-1,03 %)
$PLTR (+5,8 %)
$RBLX
$BLK

10.10.2024

Ministry of Justice considers splitting up Google + Varta in rally mode due to contract with Porsche for lithium cells + Deutsche Telekom wants to pay out more money and buy back its own shares + Bayer very weak + Continental very firm

In August, an American federal court ruled that Google $GOOGL (-0,6 %) used illegal methods to maintain its monopoly in the online search sector. The consequences of the decision are now under discussion. The US Federal Department of Justice is continuing to discuss a split-up.

https://www.computerbase.de/news/netzpolitik/kartellklage-in-den-usa-justizministerium-erwaegt-aufspaltung-von-google.89908/

The recovery rally that began the previous day at Varta $VAR1 (-0,64 %) continued on Wednesday due to encouraging news. The share price had already risen by more than 29 percent on Tuesday and now there was a further jump of 79 percent on Wednesday. Most recently, the shares of the battery manufacturer, which had got into difficulties, cost 3.40 euros. Varta had announced the signing of a contract with the sports car manufacturer Porsche AG $P911 (-1,22 %) regarding an investment in the field of large-format lithium-ion cells. According to a statement on Wednesday, the company agreed with its customer Porsche on a majority stake in the Varta subsidiary V4Drive Battery GmbH. A capital increase is to be carried out at the subsidiary in order to implement the investment. Varta had already announced on Monday that key agreements had been concluded with financiers and investors, marking a further milestone in its restructuring concept. Short-term bridge financing was also announced on Monday.

The Deutsche Telekom $DTE (+0,79 %) intends to pay out a higher dividend to its shareholders for the current year than expected. The payout is to rise from 77 cents in the previous year to 90 cents per share, the DAX-listed company announced before an investor event in Bonn on Thursday. Analysts had expected slightly less on average. The dividend proposal still has to be confirmed at the Annual General Meeting. Deutsche Telekom also announced share buybacks of up to two billion euros for 2025. The Board of Management will then present its targets for the coming years on Thursday and Friday.

Bayer $BAYN (-1,69 %) fell by 6.8 percent following a decision by the Supreme Court in the US state of Washington to reopen a lawsuit concerning the long-term health effects of the chemical PCB. Bayer had received a favorable decision in the lower court as recently as May, when an appeals court overturned a first-instance decision due to errors. Compensatory and punitive damages totaling USD 185 million, which three teachers at a school in the greater Seattle area had won before a jury in 2021, were awarded.

Continental $CON (-2,61 %) on the other hand, gained 7.2 percent. The automotive supplier is likely to achieve the majority of the positive effects from outstanding price negotiations in the third quarter, as it told analysts. "The statements are being interpreted to mean that the third quarter went somewhat better than feared," said one market participant.

Thursday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

AT&T USD 0.28

Oracle 0.40 USD

Verizon Communications USD 0.68

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

Untimed: Tesla: Presentation of Tesla's Robotaxi announced

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

07:00 Deutsche Telekom | Gerresheimer | Südzucker quarterly figures | Givaudan sales 9 months

07:30 About You result 1H

09:30 Mercedes-Benz sales figures 3Q | Deutsche Pfandbriefbank PK for Capital Markets Day

10:00 BMW sales figures 3Q

No time specified: Deutsche Telekom Capital Markets Day

Economic data

• 01:50 JP: Producer prices 9/24
• 08:00 DE: Retail sales August
• 13:30 EU: ECB, minutes of the September 11/12 Governing Council meeting
• 14:30 US: Initial Jobless Claims (week) FORECAST: 230,000 previous: 225,000 | Real Income September
• 14:30 US: Consumer Prices September PROGNOSE: +0.1% yoy/+2.3% yoy previous: +0.2% yoy/+2.5% yoy Core rate PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+3.2% yoy previous: +0.3% yoy/+3.2% yoy

The scare👻Monsanto is back!

$BAYN (-1,69 %) . ☠️🧟‍♂️

https://www.manager-magazin.de/unternehmen/bayer-aktie-setzt-kurssturz-fort-wegen-rechtsstreitigkeiten-in-usa-a-9ecdd094-a504-48d7-9b37-846691221a58

Bayer gets thrashed again 🙂‍↕️ $BAYN (-1,69 %)

The Bemdaneprocel cell therapy developed by $BAYN (-1,69 %) Bayer subsidiary Bluerock is "a potential treatment option for people with Parkinson's disease", according to Head of Development Amit Rakhit, following a 24-month safety and tolerability study. The transplanted cells continued to survive and grow in the brain after the 12-month immunosuppression was discontinued, both companies announced on Friday. No adverse events were reported in connection with Bemdaneprocel.

"The completed study shows that the transplanted cells survive, and there are early indications that bemdaneprocel may help patients better control their motor symptoms," said investigator Claire Henchcliffe of the School of Medicine at the University of California.

The detailed data from the study will be presented this weekend at the International Parkinson's Congress in Philadelphia. Bemdaneprocel is the most clinically advanced cell therapy for the treatment of patients with Parkinson's disease in the USA.

$BAYN (-1,69 %) When will the share get back on its feet?

Since $BAYN (-1,69 %) is now out as a reliable short candidate, I have taken a liking to $NKE (+0,58 %) found

As every Sunday, the most important dates for the coming week, as well as the news from the previous week.

The dates are also available as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/6nu4aDqgxSU?si=Ct0gxxjB9Zyz-i-k

Monday:

Bayer is already earning money with the blockbuster drug Kerendia. $BAYN (-1,69 %) Bayer is already making money with the blockbuster drug Kerendia. The aim now is to use the drug in other areas as well. Good figures are available for the heart and kidney drug, which should possibly enable approval for heart failure.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/pharma-biotech/bayer-enormes-wachstumspotenzial-20365248.html

$VOW (-2,5 %) VW is discussing lifting the employment guarantees. This is of course well received on the stock market, as it gives VW greater flexibility in the challenging environment of the automotive industry, which is likely to be characterized by consolidation in the coming years. VW recently missed its own profitability targets, so now personnel costs are to be reduced.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/vw-volkswagen-will-beschaeftigungsgarantie-kippen-und-werk-schliessen/100065225.html

Tuesday:

Activity in the manufacturing sector in the USA 🇺🇸 fell much more sharply than expected in August. The production index fell to 44.8 points.

https://www.finanzen.at/nachrichten/aktien/ism-index-us-industrie-verzeichnet-im-august-geringeren-zuwachs-als-prognostiziert-1033744127

Wednesday:

Producer prices within the EU have fallen further. In the EU by 1.9% compared to July 2023, in the euro area by 2.1%.

https://ec.europa.eu/eurostat/de/web/products-euro-indicators/-/4-04092024-ap#:~:text=Im%20Juni%202024%20waren%20die,EU%20um%201%2C9%25.

The Canadian 🇨🇦 central bank has now cut the key interest rate again. Again by 25 basis points, the third cut in a row since June 2024. The key interest rate is still at 4.25 %.

https://www.ctvnews.ca/business/bank-of-canada-cuts-key-interest-rate-for-third-consecutive-time-1.7024630

Thursday:

$BMW (-3,91 %) BMW enters into a cooperation with Toyota for fuel cell drive systems and promises to halve the costs. BMW wants to start series production with fuel cell technology as early as 2028. Mercedes and VW, on the other hand, have scaled back their fuel cell ambitions for the time being.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/wasserstoff-bmw-bringt-brennstoffzellenauto-ab-2028-in-serienproduktion/100065755.html

Friday:

In the USA 🇺🇸, fewer jobs were created than expected, with 140,000 instead of 160,000. As a result, the unemployment rate has fallen again to 4.2%. Nevertheless, the labor market data paves the way for the first interest rate cut in the US. The only question now is whether it will be 50 basis points or just 25 basis points.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/arbeitsmarkt-us-arbeitslosenquote-sinkt-weniger-neue-jobs-im-august/100066758.html

Key dates for the coming week:

Wednesday: 03:00 Presidential debate (USA)

Thursday: 14:15 Interest rate decision (Eurozone)

Thursday: 14:30 Producer prices (USA)

Have you ever thought about how companies actually get their ticker symbols?

Of course, you can make it as easy as Okta and $OKTA (+0,69 %) or just take Meta $META (+0,4 %) , $UBER (-1,3 %) , $SAP (-0,4 %) etc. or you can be clever like Porsche with $P911 (-1,22 %) or Salesforce with $CRM (+4,64 %) and advertise the product with your own ticker.

But then there are also companies that omit a letter from their name for no reason, such as $BAS (-5,27 %) , $PEP (+1,38 %) or $TSLA (+9,97 %) and there are really crazy ones that simply use $AAPL (+0,65 %) instead of $APPLE or $BAYN (-1,69 %) instead of $BAYER. Steve Jobs can't tell me that there was nothing better than writing Apple with two A's back then.

And of course there are $AFX (-2,96 %) and $KO (+1,1 %) the ticker has nothing to do with the actual name.

Finally, there is also the faction that simply uses the classic $C (+1,33 %) , $O (+2,65 %) , $V (+1,22 %) or $F (+0,87 %) which at least makes sense because it really is much shorter.

As every Sunday, the most important news from the past week, as well as the dates for the coming weeks.

Also as a video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/f0axgV1KRVs?si=6MLwRC5IQHK7FPqt

Monday:

$FRAS (-1,14 %) Frasers seizes the opportunity and increases its stake in $BOSS (-3,01 %) HUGO BOSS. The share had recently fallen by more than 50% compared to its highs in 2023. Frasers Group now directly holds more than 15% of the voting rights.

https://fashionunited.de/nachrichten/business/frasers-group-erhoht-beteiligung-an-hugo-boss/2024081257677

Tuesday:

$HFG (+1,98 %) Hellofresh can grow the bottom line and the ready-to-eat segment grows by almost 45%, sales in the cooking box business shrink by 10%. Overall, sales increased by 0.9%. This means that Hellofresh is already able to compensate for the falling sales in the cooking box business and return to growth. In addition

Hellofresh was able to refinance itself favorably. Hellofresh therefore continues to have a solid capital structure.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/18373330-hellofresh-hits-7-5-aebitda-q2-2024-strong-performance

Producer prices in the USA 🇺🇸 are better than expected. Instead of +0.2 % compared to the previous month, it was +0.1 %. This increasingly points to a first interest rate cut at the beginning of September.

https://finanzmarktwelt.de/inflation-usa-erzeugerpreise-niedriger-was-nun-318977/?amp

Wednesday:

With the exception of Japan, there is growing evidence of a global turnaround in interest rates. Even the economically relatively insignificant (GDP: around USD 250 billion) island state of New Zealand 🇳🇿 has now lowered interest rates. The key interest rate has been lowered from 5.5% to 5.25%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/geldpolitik-neuseelands-zentralbank-senkt-nach-langer-pause-den-leitzins/100059828.html

At +2.9%, the inflation data from the USA 🇺🇸 was below expectations of +3.0%. The markets continue to rise accordingly, and an interest rate cut by the Fed is becoming more likely.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/usa-inflation-faellt-im-juli-auf-tiefsten-stand-seit-maerz-2021/100057609.html

Big deal in the food industry. The non-listed food giant Mars takes over the Pringles manufacturer $K (+1,27 %) Kellanova. It is likely to be one of the biggest takeovers in the food industry ever. The confectionery giant Mars already has a turnover of USD 50 billion. With Kellanova, turnover will increase by a further USD 13 billion. The takeover is likely to cost USD 36 billion.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/handel-konsumgueter/pringles-hersteller-mars-will-kellanova-wohl-fuer-30-milliarden-dollar-kaufen/100059764.html

Thursday:

The trade union-affiliated IMK puts the probability of a recession in Germany at 49.2%. The main problems are domestic consumer demand and general demand from abroad.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/konjunktur/imk-institut-rezessionsrisiko-in-deutschland-steigt-studie-zufolge-auf-fast-50-prozent/100060064.html

$CSCO (+0,48 %) Cisco has exceeded expectations with its sales forecast for the current quarter. In the previous quarter, sales fell by 10% and profits plummeted by 45%.

https://www.finanzen.net/amp/optimismus-cisco-aktie-steigt-prognose-uebertrifft-erwartungen-13767655

Domestic consumption is driving the economy in Japan 🇯🇵. In the 2nd quarter, GDP grew by an annualized 3.1%. Experts had only expected growth of 2.1%.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/politik/international/konjunktur-privater-konsum-treibt-japans-wirtschaftswachstum-an/100060045.html

$BAYN (-1,69 %) Bayer can dismiss a lawsuit in an appeals court. As there are contradictory rulings from appeal courts, Bayer continues to demand that the glyphosate case be brought before the Supreme Court.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/pharmakonzern-bayer-verbucht-juristischen-sieg-im-us-streit-ueber-glyphosat/100060322.html

Key dates in the coming week:

Tuesday: 14:30 Inflation data (Canada)

Wednesday: 20:00 FOMC Minutes (USA)

Thursday: 10:00 Purchasing Managers' Index (EU)