Fresenius Care Action Forum

22.10.2024

SAP's quarterly figures are better than expected + SHARES IN THE FOCUS: Fresenius and FMC higher - Confidence ahead of quarterly figures + Jefferies lowers Basler to 'Hold' - Target almost halved to 7 euros +

SAP $SAP (-0,4 %) unexpectedly increases adjusted pre-tax profit in the third quarter by 27% to 2.24 billion euros and raises its forecast for the year. The SAP share rises by 4% in after-hours trading.

Investors in Fresenius $FRE (-0,26 %) and Fresenius Medical Care $FME (+1,22 %) seem to be gaining confidence ahead of the quarterly figures due at the beginning of November. In the early afternoon, Fresenius shares, which are listed in the Dax, were the best index stock, gaining 1.4 percent in an attempt to shake off the somewhat weaker trend since mid-September. Fresenius holding FMC rose by 2.1 percent in the MDax, but the shares remained just below their interim high from the beginning of October. Above that, they would cost as much as they last did in mid-June. The third quarter is usually the weakest for the medical group Fresenius, but the management should spread optimism, wrote Berenberg analyst Victoria Lambert. As recently as mid-October, the company was confident of achieving the upper end of the targeted range for the operating result (EBIT) for the full year. According to the expert, the growth in treatment figures at dialysis provider FMC should finally have turned positive in the third quarter and offset the effects of the mortality rate.

The analyst firm Jefferies has Basler $BSL (-3,73 %) from "buy" to "hold" after the figures and almost halved its target price from 13.50 to 7 euros. The machine vision specialist surprised with a comparatively significant weakening of the order situation, wrote analyst Martin Comtesse in a study published on Tuesday. This was preceded by three quarters of improvements. A profit warning, restructuring and management changes were the consequences of the third quarter.

Tuesday: Stock market dates, economic data, quarterly figures

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Dell USD 0.45

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

12:30 3M | GE Aerospace, | General Motors | RTX quarterly figures

13:00 Philip Morris | Verizon Communications quarterly figures

13:30 Lockheed Martin quarterly figures

22:00 Texas Instruments quarterly figures

Untimed: Paccar quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

03:00 Logitech quarterly figures

14:0 Logitech Call

18:00 Flatexdegiro | Vivendi quarterly figures | LOreal SA, sales 3Q

19:00 Deutsche Börse quarterly figures

Untimed: Givaudan SA: Start of Investor Day (until 23.10.) | Randstad quarterly figures | Tecan: Capital Markets Day

Economic data

11:00 EU: Public finances (2nd publication) 2023 | Government debt 2Q

11:00 DE: German Savings Banks and Giro Association (DSGV), Pk on the Wealth Barometer 2024

14:30 US: Philadelphia Fed services index 10/24

15:00 USInternational Monetary Fund (IMF), World Economic Outlook

15:15 US: Governing Council member Nagel, speech at Harvard University

16:00 US: Richmond Fed manufacturing index 10/24

16:00 US: ECB President Lagarde, interview with Bloomberg TV

16:30 US: US Treasury Secretary Yellen, press conference at the start of the IMF and World Bank Annual Meetings

17:00 US: ECB Chief Economist Lane, interview at New York Fed central banking seminar

+++Summary of earnings this morning, 30.07.+++

$BP. (-1,72 %) achieves an EBIT (adjusted) of $5.41 billion (analyst forecast: $5.52 billion) and a net profit of $2.76 billion (forecast: $2.69 billion) in Q2. The dividend for the 2nd quarter is expected to be 8 cents per share (forecast: 7.8 cents). BP plans to buy back shares with a volume of $3.5 bn in the second half of the year.

-

Redcare Pharma $RDC (+9,53 %) achieved sales of €560.67 million in the 2nd quarter (previous year: €419.9 million) and EBITDA (adjusted) of €15.04 million (previous year: €13.25 million). A net profit of €12.57 million (previous year: -€14.4 million) was reported in the first half of the year. Outlook confirmed.

-

Fuchs $FPE (-0,87 %) achieved sales of €1.76 billion (previous year: €1.82 billion, analyst forecast: €1.76 billion), EBIT of €218 million (previous year: €200 million, forecast: €217.6 million) and net profit of €155 million (previous year: €141 million) in the first half of the year. Outlook confirmed.

-

Covestro $1COV (-0,62 %) achieved sales of €3.69 billion in the second quarter (previous year: €3.72 billion, analyst forecast: €3.69 billion), EBITDA of €320 million (previous year: €385 million, forecast: €311 million) and a net result of -€72 million (previous year: €46 million, forecast: €14 million). In the outlook for 2024, Covestro is adjusting its forecast and now sees free operating cash flow of -€100 to +€100 million (previously: €0 to €300 million, analyst forecast: €173 million) and EBITDA of €1.0 to €1.4 billion (previously: €1.0 to €1.6 billion, forecast: €1.25 billion).

-

Heidelberg Materials $HEI (+1,13 %) achieved sales of €5.51 billion in Q2 (previous year: €5.58 billion, analyst forecast: €5.55 billion) and EBIT (adjusted) of €971 million (previous year: €931 million, forecast: €981 million). Outlook for 2024 confirmed.

-

Fresenius Medical Care $FME (+1,22 %) achieves sales (adjusted) of €4.74 billion (previous year: €4.74 billion), operating income (adjusted) of €433 million (previous year: €400 million, forecast: €433 million) and net income (adjusted) of €207 million (previous year: €176 million, forecast: €201 million) in the second quarter. Forecast confirmed.

Economy on 22.05.2024...

Markets take a breath near the ATH. A lot going on today. Paypal AGM, Nvidia figures and so on... ⤵️

There has been a lot going on in the last few weeks. Nevertheless, trading went very well and I still have a few positions open.

I'll take a long look at Hugo Boss after the figures and the co-op with David Beckham.

I have gone long on some solar stocks and I am still working on a turnaround $VNA (+2,7 %) Vonovia, $PYPL (+3 %) Paypal and $PAH3 (-2,05 %) Porsche.

Closed trades of the last weeks are:

$BAYN (-1,69 %) Bayer, $ADE (-0,5 %) Bitcoin Group, $JNJ (+0,03 %) Johnson & Johnson, $FME (+1,22 %) Fresenius Medical Care and $AFX (-2,96 %) Carl Zeiss

My savings plans on the ETFs are continuing and otherwise I am building up a lot of cash in order to be able to participate in one or two setbacks

Cryptos have also started well again, especially Ethereum, after the chances of an ETH ETF being approved rose to 75%.

Let's take a look at today's trading day and the dates. There are a few general meetings that are interesting. Paypal, McDonalds and so on, among others. See for yourself:

Singapore stock market holiday

Economic data

08:00

• UK: Consumer prices April PROGNOSE: +0.2% yoy/+2.1% yoy previous: +0.6% yoy/+3.2% yoy Core PROGNOSE: +0.7% yoy/+3.6% yoy previous: +0.6% yoy/+4.2% yoy

10:05

• EU: ECB President Lagarde, video message for Esma event on Capital Markets Union

16:00

• US: Existing Home Sales April PROGNOSE: +1.4% yoy previous: -4.3% yoy

16:30

• US: Crude Oil Inventories EIA

20:00

• US: Fed, minutes of the FOMC meeting April 30/May 1

ex-dividend of individual stocks

Renault EUR 1.85

Quarterly figures / company dates USA / Asia

16:00 $MCD (+2,19 %)
McDonalds | $MDLZ (+1,41 %)
Mondelez

16:00 $UAL (+3,22 %)
United Airlines AGM

16:30 US: Crude Oil Inventories EIA

17:00 PayPal AGM

18:00 $AMZN (-0,02 %)
Amazon AGM

22:20 $NVDA (-0,03 %)
Nvidia quarterly figures

Quarterly figures / Company dates Europe

07:00 $EVT (-0,84 %)
Evotec | $HBH (-1,52 %)
Hornbach Holding

10:00 $COP (-0,13 %)
Compugroup Medical AGM

10:30 Indus Holding AGM

11:00 $PUMA (-0,33 %)
Puma AGM

14:00 Evotec Earnings-Call

Untimed: Einhell quarterly figures

As already announced and questioned.

Yes 4 sales this week. Unfortunately or Sell in May and ....

Instead of Stop Loos I have entered 4 limits.

So I am parting with 2 positions where it would have been time for years, one before dividends and position 4 after buy and hold 😜

So to $FMC (-1,11 %)

Hyped stocks in stock market newspapers, Dividenstar, operator clinics and participation in research, etc.

As well as DAX, Vogue etc. Also top buy hold and earn

Yes, a lot of theory, in practice 50% sunk, dividends cut to zero, but I remain loyal to the stock markets and individual stocks, as more return and the fever to lose or win

😜

Part 2 of 4: For vacation hedging stop lots mixed up and limit entered.

$FRE (-0,26 %) and $FME (+1,22 %) were bought a few years ago when the share price fell from almost 100 to 50/60.

Buy at > -30% and invest in DAX companies that also pay dividends.

Result after years of tears, investment and share price halving as well as dividend cut and exclusion from the DAX now 40.

Loss of almost 50%

As every Sunday, the most important news of the last week and the dates of the coming week, also as video:

https://youtube.com/shorts/s9icpY6A1oo?si=QsXp6ZlISFxhfKGA

Monday:

Industrial production continued to fall in August. This was announced by the Federal Statistical Office. Compared with the previous month, production fell by 0.2%.

https://de.nachrichten.yahoo.com/industrieproduktion-august-leicht-gesunken-064837469.html?guccounter=1&guce_referrer=aHR0cHM6Ly93d3cuZ29vZ2xlLmRlLw&guce_referrer_sig=AQAAABoUoG_Fdj82a1jbK9Fd851Fr89fGGzI4TynzzLWUK-rH_Zm5dStpOHe28nGLBqa9ls2-AyTQ1_PeP5_fuAeumlT215yWuHprNOxrSHVtHO-o9cM3sqRWRrCN29ZKR3kV8iOPHT-nZnVd1i23bDvza6_JxtsGlZFUebqdlC4GAUd

Tuesday:

$KBC2 Kontron receives two major orders from the aviation industry worth EUR 100 million.

https://www.boerse.de/nachrichten-amp/Technologiekonzern-Kontron-erhaelt-zwei-Auftraege-aus-der-Luftfahrtbranche/35360444

The trade balance of Japan shows that Japan continues to achieve an export surplus. The surplus tripled in August to more than $15 billion. One of the main reasons are falling prices for imported goods.

https://www.japantimes.co.jp/business/2023/10/10/economy/japan-current-account-surplus/

$1211 (-3,83 %) BYD is on the verge of $TSLA (+9,97 %) replacing Tesla as the world's largest e-car manufacturer.

https://teslamag.de/news/byd-keine-marktfuehrer-konkurrenz-tesla-keine-angst-eu-verfahren-61724/amp

$EH Ehang, a stock in our Growth Depot, is requesting a trading halt. The request is probably related to an extraordinary announcement.

https://www.instagram.com/p/CyOFeDrOhkY/?igshid=MWZjMTM2ODFkZg==

Wednesday:

$NOVO B Novo Nordisk is seeing positive results with its antidiabetic in chronic kidney patients. This puts a strain on dialysis speci $FME (+1,22 %) Fresenius Medical Care and also $FRE (-0,26 %) Fresenius. The study could be terminated due to proven efficacy. Fresenius Medical Care is thus likely to lose further patients; it already lost many during the corona pandemic due to excess mortality.

https://www.wallstreet-online.de/nachricht/17417078-aktien-fokus-studienerfolg-novo-nordisk-belastet-dialysebranche-fmc

$BIRK (-1,2 %) Birkenstock comes to the stock exchange with a price of EUR 46. The company was made fit for the stock exchange by Bernard Arnault and ends up there with a sporting valuation of USD 8.6 billion.

https://www.t-online.de/nachrichten/ausland/id_100257866/birkenstock-an-der-boerse-46-dollar-pro-aktie.html

Producer prices in the USA rise more strongly than expected. They rose by 2.2% compared with the same month a year ago. The expectation was for around 1.6%. Producer prices are a leading indicator for inflation, so this is bad news.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/dpa/usa-erzeugerpreise-steigen-staerker-als-erwartet/29440252.html

Thursday:

The war of Isreal and Hamas now has a concrete impact on an asset class: cryptocurrencies. Apparently, cryptocurrencies in particular have been used to finance terror. Israeli police now froze all crypto accounts used to publicly solicit donations. Most of the accounts were held at Binance. Binance confirms cooperation with Isreal. However, the SEC is also suing Binance, so in the US the events also have possible consequences for the world's largest crypto exchange. $BTC (+0,47 %)

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/devisen-rohstoffe/terrorfinanzierung-israel-friert-krypto-konten-der-hamas-ein/29441628.html

Inflation data from the US is not coming in well. The inflation rate remains at 3.7%. A decline was expected.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/maerkte/marktberichte/dax-aktuell-dax-rutscht-nach-us-inflationsdaten-50-punkte-ab/29442046.html

Friday:

Still virtually no inflation in China. Consumer prices stagnated again, a slight increase was expected. China's foreign trade also continues to shrink. Exports and imports each fell by 6.2% compared to the same period last year. Experts see a slow, temporary recovery of the economy at the end of 2023.

https://amp2.handelsblatt.com/finanzen/geldpolitik/volksrepublik-china-verharrt-am-rande-einer-deflation/29444536.html

Also $VOW3 (-2,26 %) VW also seems to be slowly stabilizing in China. In September, 0.9% fewer vehicles were sold than in the previous month. Worldwide, however, VW delivered 2.3 million vehicles in Q3, which is 7.4% more than in the same period last year. VW is able to make up for the problems in China with significant increases in North America and Europe. This is a healthy development, as it reduces dependence on China. Electric cars already accounted for 7.9% of total sales so far in 2023, or about 530,000 cars. By comparison, Tesla sold only 1.3 million vehicles in the same period.

https://www.handelsblatt.com/unternehmen/industrie/autobranche-volkswagen-stabilisiert-sich-in-china-langsam/29445046.html

$EH Ehang gets mega-approval in China. China's civil aviation authority has approved EH216-S. This is an unmanned drone with autopilot. It is the first approval of its kind in the world, making it a real milestone. The approval process went 2 years with countless tests. Shortly, trading in the stock will start again.

https://www.deraktionaer.de/artikel/mobilitaet-oel-energie/ehang-mega-genehmigung-in-china-aktie-wird-wieder-handelbar-20341104.html

Monday: 11:00 Trade Balance (EuroZone)

Tuesday: 11:00 ZEW survey (DE)

Wednesday: 04:00 GDP figures (China)

Thursday: 14:30 Unemployment Claims (USA)

Friday: 08:00 Producer Prices (DE)

Economy on 07.03.2023...

German shares with a lot of potential? More... ⤵️

Moin on the second trading day of this stock market week. Currently, there are Spannes upgrades in the market. Thus receives $AAPL (+0,65 %)
Apple receives an upgrade from Neutral to Buy with a price target of $199. This is the view of Goldman Sachs. Also, a subcontractor (Foxconn) wants to invest $700 million in an iPhone plant in India. With Apple it goes thus round.

Also with many German enterprises it runs straight very very well. One must emphasize here the car rental company $SIX2 (+0,13 %)
Sixt. It now wants to attack the US market more than before and plans to increase its market share from 3 to 10% by 2027. So all the switches are set for growth. That should please investors. Also the $LHA (+0,59 %)
Lufthansa has come back very well since last week. The turnaround has worked like a storybook. Lufthansa's figures were also very good and the company has now weathered the crisis very well. For the DAX heavyweight $SAP (-0,4 %)

SAP rose by 2.4 percent. Silver Lake and a Canadian pension fund are interested in buying the US subsidiary Quatltrics. The $18.15 offered is only a small premium over Friday's close, and the stock market said that the final word may not yet have been spoken. $RHM (+1,63 %)
Rheinmetall moves up into the DAX and expels $FME (+1,22 %)
Fresenius Medical Care. This is the first "Fast Entry Rule" which is now implemented. The high price gains in the last period, make this necessary.

With me on the watch list, and perhaps the first candidate we will buy with the new direction of the portfolio (is ready and armed since yesterday), could be $JNJ (+0,03 %)
Johnson&Johnson could be. I like the current price level quite well. But I will report on this in due time. Now first of all to the new trading day:

Economic data (shortened version)

08:00

• DE: January new orders seasonally adjusted PROGNOSIS: -1.0% yoy previous: +3.2% yoy
• DE: Services sector sales December and year 2022

10:00

• EU: ECB, publication of January consumer survey results

11:30

• DE: Government-PK
• EU: ECB, Allocation of Main Refi Tender

16:00

• US: Fed Chairman Powell, hearing as part of semiannual report on monetary policy before Senate Banking Committee

21:00

• US: Consumer Credit January

22:30

• US: Crude oil inventory data (week) from private American Petroleum Institute (API)

Quarterly figures / company dates Europe

06:45 Shop Pharmacy detailed

07:00 Hellofresh | Zalando | Lindt & Sprüngli

07:30 Gea Group | Henkel | Somfy

07:45 Va-Q-Tec preliminary annual results

08:00 Schaeffler annual results

08:15 Traton detailed annual results

08:30 Helma Eigenheimbau annual results

10:00 Traton Annual Pk | Novartis AGM

#quartalszahlen
#boerse
#börse
#aktien
#news
#newsroom
#community
#communityfeedback
#nachrichten
#täglich
#investieren
#wirtschaft
#politik
#inflation
#fed
#rezession
#mitverstandzumkapital
#lufthansa
#sixt
#apple
#rheinmetall
#freseniusmedicalcare
#dax
#shopapotheke
#hellofresh
#sap

I don't see any more opportunities here either and am switching to Deutsche Post

Basically a market that continues to grow. But it will take some time for the share to reach new heights. Partial sale due to regrouping.