1Année
So when I look at your watchlist with the planned buy orders, I would assume that you are already expecting a strong correction / crash.
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1Année
@julian5125 Yes, I believe that something will come. Especially since the multiples of the shares are still quite high and some of the companies are very highly indebted. In addition, there is a lot of U.S. data that suggests that consumers are no longer able to finance their consumption for as long as they used to. Consequently, they are also not supporting the U.S. economy. If there is no setback, there is currently at least interest on my cash reserve :)
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1Année
@JRow I am also skeptical that this can continue. The Americans, for example, seem to be burdened with credit card debts (Tim Schäfer once said that some of them have 10 such cards). What would be indicators for you if your scenario changes positively/negatively?
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1Année
@julian5125 I don't think the question can be explained quite simply. On the one hand, there are qualitative aspects - my gut feeling - and quantitative aspects on the other. Let's leave the qualitative aspects aside and go into some quantitative aspects that I consider relevant (excerpt):
(1) Inverse yield curve - the yield curve of the 10-year and three-month U.S. government bonds should sustainably no longer be inverted (2) The Fed should keep its interest rates the same and the market should start pricing in interest rate cuts (no zero interest rate policy) <- geht mit (1) einher
(3) Die Inflation in den USA sollte sich stabilisieren (ob es jetzt wirklich das 2% Ziel ist oder wir uns bei 3% bewegen ist mir dabei egal, es muss nur kalkulierbarer werden)
(4) Die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA sollte sich erhöhen (>5%) (5) The U.S. should have replenished its strategic oil reserves (6) House prices in the U.S. should continue to fall (7) Private debt should be declining. Currently about 61% of Americans are living from "paycheck to paycheck" and starting Oct 1operatively-if I'm not mistaken-student loan repayments start again, which should have a significant impact on the US market (8) China should announce youth unemployment figures again I tend to focus on the US market, as I think Germany is irrelevant and the market mechanism is not working due to some kind of over-regulation. But since this should not degenerate into a political discussion, I'll stick to the statement. What are your indicators?
(1) Inverse yield curve - the yield curve of the 10-year and three-month U.S. government bonds should sustainably no longer be inverted (2) The Fed should keep its interest rates the same and the market should start pricing in interest rate cuts (no zero interest rate policy) <- geht mit (1) einher
(3) Die Inflation in den USA sollte sich stabilisieren (ob es jetzt wirklich das 2% Ziel ist oder wir uns bei 3% bewegen ist mir dabei egal, es muss nur kalkulierbarer werden)
(4) Die Arbeitslosenquote in den USA sollte sich erhöhen (>5%) (5) The U.S. should have replenished its strategic oil reserves (6) House prices in the U.S. should continue to fall (7) Private debt should be declining. Currently about 61% of Americans are living from "paycheck to paycheck" and starting Oct 1operatively-if I'm not mistaken-student loan repayments start again, which should have a significant impact on the US market (8) China should announce youth unemployment figures again I tend to focus on the US market, as I think Germany is irrelevant and the market mechanism is not working due to some kind of over-regulation. But since this should not degenerate into a political discussion, I'll stick to the statement. What are your indicators?
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