Explain that to Warren Buffett
•
22
•
@ares1965 Old Warren is just a real patriot.
But if he had been born in Japan and had been a Japanese patriot who had implemented his value strategy there, nobody would know him today because his portfolio would have been pulverized in 1990.
Don't get me wrong, I have the greatest respect for Warren Buffett, but he is also a prime example of survivorship bias. (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_Bias)
If Turkey had been the country with the best stock returns in the last 100 years, we would all be saying today that the great patriot Murat Öztürk (name freely invented) is one of the best investors of all time.
I would like to refer you once again to:
[3] Is The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689958
"US companies have done better than expected because of disasters that did NOT happen."
In other words, there was a lot of luck involved.
But if he had been born in Japan and had been a Japanese patriot who had implemented his value strategy there, nobody would know him today because his portfolio would have been pulverized in 1990.
Don't get me wrong, I have the greatest respect for Warren Buffett, but he is also a prime example of survivorship bias. (https://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Survivorship_Bias)
If Turkey had been the country with the best stock returns in the last 100 years, we would all be saying today that the great patriot Murat Öztürk (name freely invented) is one of the best investors of all time.
I would like to refer you once again to:
[3] Is The United States A Lucky Survivor: A Hierarchical Bayesian Approach
https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3689958
"US companies have done better than expected because of disasters that did NOT happen."
In other words, there was a lot of luck involved.
•
11
•
10Mo
@PowerWordChill Absolutely right! :-)
•
11
•