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I am curious. For me, Nasdaq100 and gold are unchallenged on the top2 momentum places. Down, but just above SMA200 EMU SC and EM SC. The rest (COMM, TLT) is on sale.
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@Epi So, the EMU SC was also on sale with me, I just sold it with + 3.5%. According to 3/6-month momentum, I would have had to swap it for the EM SC. But I decided - against the rules - against it and went into the money market. Momentum didn't look convincing at all and I had the same play with emerging markets back in February. Maybe they'll break out to the upside in the next few days, in which case it was a mistake. But first, it's an attempt to get a handle on the current market situation with a discretionary decision. Maybe an approach to the questions we're discussing separately right now. You had taken some profits the other day.
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@Epi Performance YTD in the GTAA portfolio 5.9% by the way. Let's hope that the NASDAQ 100 doesn't slide too badly in the coming weeks/months.
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@randomdude It would be interesting to quantify your intuition regarding the lack of momentum just above SMA200 as a rule. One possibility would be: Buy only at SMA200 +1%/2%. Otherwise, +3.5% for EMU SC is quite acceptable. How long have you had it now?
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@Epi That's what I'm hoping for from a more detailed analysis of the backtest (keyword: 2019).
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@randomdude 5.9% YTD are super. They were probably mostly generated in January, weren't they?
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@Epi Less, I was only 1/3 invested in the now sold EMU SC. The 5% (or so) that the ACWI made in January was not taken by my model. The current gains have come from the NASDAQ and gold since April.
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@randomdude Ah, I see. With GTAA2 1369 10M you would have taken January at about 7.5% (Gold, EMU SC). 😏
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@Epi Yes, but only in the pv model in $, right? Not in the Euro model, according to my memory. But I don't have access to it right now.
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@randomdude Yes, in USD. But the euro only moved by about 1% in January. Should not make that much difference.
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@Epi However, the Euro model indicated a different asset allocation (presumably because of the exchange rate development over the course of 2022). And I also had EMU SC, but they have fallen again over the past few months.
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