4Sem.·

where do you see $DE000RENK730 (-3,53 %) and $RHM (-0,78 %) in the coming year?


In principle, I would say that since we are likely to get a government in Germany with the CSU/CDU, which will continue to represent interests to participate passively in the war and also to increase our armed forces, an increase is realistic.


Your opinion on $RHM (-0,78 %) I am particularly interested, as I personally find this share somewhat overpriced. (market capitalization just under € 27 billion, net profit € 535 million

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8 Commentaires

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The forecasts are quite good, but in my opinion this is already reflected in the chart if you look at how far the price is above the 200-day line. The weekly RSI is also still overbought. If I already had the share, it would be a "hold" and if I didn't have it yet, it wouldn't be a buy at the moment. I wrote something about Renk a month ago on the Renk page and the "IPO" topic.
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I remain very convinced of $RHM. Trump will enforce that all NATO countries invest at least 2% of their GDP in the military. I can also imagine that the war in Ukraine will intensify further in the coming months. Even without DE, Rheinmetall has many customers throughout Europe and the order books are full💰
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For investors who have not previously invested in defense and investors without a personal military background: 1. procurement figures for large-scale equipment can generally be seen as a factor of 4, as a serviceable system + 3 sets of parts for maintenance/maintenance are usually purchased. 2. equipment is also used in training/exercise operations and is regularly procured. This applies to ammunition, for example. 3. in times of active warfare, the innovation cycles of the protagonists are considerably shortened - new deployments due to reduced effectiveness of outdated technology increase expenditure. 4. the increase is more predictable for defense equipment manufacturers than capital goods in the consumer goods industry, as defense equipment is not procured according to demand, but planned scenarios with horizons of 10+ years. 5 We are practically at zero both in terms of stockpiling and in the innovation ladder - 20+ years have to be made up for. 6. the operational capability and effectiveness of armed forces are not measured by the amount of money spent, but on the battlefield/exercise area. And here comes the big surprise for the Bundeswehr.
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I would wait for Trump to take office; if he ends the war as announced, there will at least be a small dip in the defense industry.
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Not in my securities account 👍
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