1Année·

Hello everyone, I'm looking for input on CD Project Red.

I am currently analyzing $CDR (+0,8 %) and thinking about buying more. Do you have any spontaneous ideas and thoughts on the share? I would take up the input and publish my analysis here in a few days and would be happy to discuss it with you :)

7 Commentaires

Enrique@Dividenden_Monteur

1Année

The Witcher is dead, Henry Cavill should never have been abandoned.

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CashDividendGamer@CashDividendGamer

1Année

@Der_Dividenden_Monteur 🎶 Toss a coin to your witcher 🎶

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Tom@FresherAlman

1Année

I think the witcher 4 will sell 30 million copies on release at 80€ each = 2.4 billion sales. Previous margins were about 60% with the own engine, since this time the unreal engine is used, I think the margin will be lower, if we assume 40%, 960 million profit remains from the release alone. Current market cap of cd projekt: 2.3 billion. everything is still a dream of the future, in the long term the investment will pay off I think. I am currently holding 200 shares at €25.80.

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T D.@T-Dax

1Année

@FresherAlman Despite my bullish sentiment, this is too ambitious in my opinion. I forecast release figures similar to Cyberpunk. Conservative. What's exciting is the sheer number of games that will be released in the next decade. 3x Witcher within about 6 years, 1x Cyberpunk 2 and 1x a new IP alongside other, smaller projects like Sirius or the Witcher 3 remake. In this respect, I don't think it's a bad thing if it doesn't reach 30 million sales at release. About half that would be great.

Regarding the margins... that's not true. There has never been a 60% margin in recent years. The highest margin was in 2020 with almost 54%. The average seems to be a little over 30%, which probably also has to do with the necessary bug-fixing of Cyberpunk. I also think that the margin will decrease. Conservatively, assuming that not everything goes smoothly with the new games either, maybe 23%.

Even with this, admittedly very cautious, outlook, I still think it is completely undervalued. What makes the share so attractive are the many releases from 2026 onwards.

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Zuitsdg@Zuitsdg

5Mo

@FresherAlman lol Cyberpunk had some of the highest hype of all time and reached 15mio at release.
I would also expect worst case 5mio, expectation 12mio, best case 20mio, but 30mio probably only over the next 5-10 years if the game does well.
The 80€ is also optimistic. I pre-ordered Witcher 3 including DLCs for 18€ in Poland. Of course the western markets have 60€+, and higher prices for the consoles (and costs for Sony and Microsoft) - but with the rest of the world, Eastern Europe, South America and Asia, I would estimate the average price at 30€ and thus 360mio sales.

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T D.@T-Dax

5Mo

@Zuitsdg the average price can be easily determined from the quarterly figures. 30€ is not realistic. I basically agree with you about the "worst case". By worst case, I mean the impact of the bug fiasco on sales figures after the immediate release. The immediate release was of course phenomenal.

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Zuitsdg@Zuitsdg

5Mo

@T-Dax Where can I find the sales figures for the quarter? I can only see the sales figures. And in addition to the games, expansions and older games are also sold.

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