3Année·
Avis pour $WEW
🚀 Bullish

Here is why I am very bullish for Westwing in the long term @christian , as I promised to answer your question in a separated post:


- They transform their inventory to own-brand products. They will provide %8-10+ contribution margins... Increasing profits.

- Highly addictive, very unique shopping experience. Plarform is like home decor magazine, flipping thru personalized curated recommendations according to past purchases. It is like Pinterest of home decor shopping. Very high retention rates.

- What would a reasonable buyer pay for this business in the public markets? Take a look at some industry comps:

● Wayfair (W): 49x EBITDA

● Amazon (AMZN): 22x EBITDA

● Zalando (ZAL): 31x EBITDA

● Overstock: 24x EBITDA

Let's assume a buyer would pay ~25x EBITDA for WEW. That gets us EUR 2.275B in enterprise

value. Add back EUR 76M in net cash on the balance sheet, and you get EUR 2.35B in market cap or

EUR 115/share. That's a 248% upside from the current price.


May be right or not, do your own DD guys ;) General market conditions and supply chain issues are my bearish theses...

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8 Commentaires

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3Année
Just for the record, when I wrote this post, Westwing was below €33...
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well if you compare ebita multiples you also have to compare ebitda growth rates. how do they look in comparison?
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Considering moat is important here. Does Westwing have a moat and if so, is it widening?
Criteria:
- network effect
- switching costs
- cost advantage
- great scalability
- optionality
- intangibles (brands, patents etc)

The valuation does seem attractive and I believe it’s a great marketplace. However, I am not sure how wide its moat is..
Plus, what is their counter-positioning to something like PINS? (as they could easily create something similar)
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