Hurts especially because the trend is not stopping but was to be expected. Fits in with the other German mid caps, with China and NA dependency and continuing negative trend also coming from the bad situation in Germany
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•@topicswithhead Let's see what exactly the report says
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1Sem.
@topicswithhead a real pity would like to invest more in europe but it's more donation than investment at the moment
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22
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1Sem.
@topicswithhead How do you see the prospects?
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@Soprano
I've read through everything and am somewhat divided overall. In the USA, the current situation seems to be largely self-inflicted, while Europe has actually grown. China, on the other hand, is currently dominated by a clear reluctance to invest, which is having an impact on many companies. The balance sheet has suffered somewhat as a result of the takeover and some write-downs, but not to a dramatic extent. The ROE is below 10% for the first time, but still remains above 7%.
I think it's a shame that the workforce has been expanded instead of acting more cautiously in the current situation - especially in Europe. Surprisingly, I would have expected this expansion more in the USA. However, networking through Carl Zeiss probably also plays a role here, which is why my criticism on this point may be unfounded. The competition still doesn't seem particularly promising and the brand remains the strongest in the market.
On the one hand, I would like to see changes, but on the other hand, the company is acting exactly as you would expect: they are sticking to their strategy and continuing to invest unwaveringly. This is exactly why I invested, although this approach is beginning to cause concern. At the same time, the company is benefiting from an attractive trend, which has recently become even stronger.
However, the biggest problem I see is the development in Germany, which is increasingly worrying me. The CDU and FDP would be the least of the evils here, but even they are unlikely to initiate a real turnaround. In view of this, it is obvious that the company will continue to invest in Germany regardless of the circumstances.
I would say that I would probably invest again if I didn't already have a position. However, it is now so large that I am not currently planning to increase it. For me, the share is not a high-risk/high-reward bet, but a long-term value that will probably yield 10-12%, but no more. Unless the share price were to fall dramatically again and the situation in Germany or China were to improve at the same time - in which case I might consider investing again.
Basically, I believe in the brand and the company's innovative strength. Capital efficiency is still okay, but is showing the first signs of weakness. If there are no signs of positive developments between now and the first half of 2025, I will take another critical look at the share. In the worst-case scenario, I could imagine selling up to 25% of the position and claiming the loss for tax purposes. For now, it remains to be seen what will happen by Q3 2025.
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I've read through everything and am somewhat divided overall. In the USA, the current situation seems to be largely self-inflicted, while Europe has actually grown. China, on the other hand, is currently dominated by a clear reluctance to invest, which is having an impact on many companies. The balance sheet has suffered somewhat as a result of the takeover and some write-downs, but not to a dramatic extent. The ROE is below 10% for the first time, but still remains above 7%.
I think it's a shame that the workforce has been expanded instead of acting more cautiously in the current situation - especially in Europe. Surprisingly, I would have expected this expansion more in the USA. However, networking through Carl Zeiss probably also plays a role here, which is why my criticism on this point may be unfounded. The competition still doesn't seem particularly promising and the brand remains the strongest in the market.
On the one hand, I would like to see changes, but on the other hand, the company is acting exactly as you would expect: they are sticking to their strategy and continuing to invest unwaveringly. This is exactly why I invested, although this approach is beginning to cause concern. At the same time, the company is benefiting from an attractive trend, which has recently become even stronger.
However, the biggest problem I see is the development in Germany, which is increasingly worrying me. The CDU and FDP would be the least of the evils here, but even they are unlikely to initiate a real turnaround. In view of this, it is obvious that the company will continue to invest in Germany regardless of the circumstances.
I would say that I would probably invest again if I didn't already have a position. However, it is now so large that I am not currently planning to increase it. For me, the share is not a high-risk/high-reward bet, but a long-term value that will probably yield 10-12%, but no more. Unless the share price were to fall dramatically again and the situation in Germany or China were to improve at the same time - in which case I might consider investing again.
Basically, I believe in the brand and the company's innovative strength. Capital efficiency is still okay, but is showing the first signs of weakness. If there are no signs of positive developments between now and the first half of 2025, I will take another critical look at the share. In the worst-case scenario, I could imagine selling up to 25% of the position and claiming the loss for tax purposes. For now, it remains to be seen what will happen by Q3 2025.
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22
•1Sem.
@topicswithhead Thank you very much for your detailed thoughts. I am in a similar situation to you. I have also reached my target position size and am currently no longer prepared to buy any more.
I have similar thoughts about the regions. The situation on the Asian market is not CZM's fault, just like all the other companies that are having problems there at the moment.
However, I am disappointed by the weak performance in the USA. I can't really explain what the problems are here either.
In Europe, on the other hand, it is clear to me that politics is responsible. Basically, most European companies are not doing particularly well at the moment and the governments in the most important economies DE and FR are really falling apart. It can also be assumed that the next government will not be able to establish stable political conditions in the foreseeable future.
The key question I ask myself here is to what extent CZM is dependent on politics in Germany at all. The locations in Germany are certainly important. Jena in particular is also enormously important for technology and the recruitment of young talent. But in principle, CZM doesn't need that much tailwind from Germany. Neither in terms of regulation nor as a central sales market. Other companies such as Allianz have a much higher exposure to Germany.
It is also interesting to note that the medical technology sector in which CZM is active is currently experiencing a hog cycle. This phenomenon of stagnating sales while margins are coming under pressure is affecting all companies in the sector and will probably improve again within the next two years. This point gives reason for hope. Customers' warehouses should soon be empty again and then growth could also return.
But as I said, the political situation is worrying and I haven't yet been able to work out how much this is actually affecting the company.
I have similar thoughts about the regions. The situation on the Asian market is not CZM's fault, just like all the other companies that are having problems there at the moment.
However, I am disappointed by the weak performance in the USA. I can't really explain what the problems are here either.
In Europe, on the other hand, it is clear to me that politics is responsible. Basically, most European companies are not doing particularly well at the moment and the governments in the most important economies DE and FR are really falling apart. It can also be assumed that the next government will not be able to establish stable political conditions in the foreseeable future.
The key question I ask myself here is to what extent CZM is dependent on politics in Germany at all. The locations in Germany are certainly important. Jena in particular is also enormously important for technology and the recruitment of young talent. But in principle, CZM doesn't need that much tailwind from Germany. Neither in terms of regulation nor as a central sales market. Other companies such as Allianz have a much higher exposure to Germany.
It is also interesting to note that the medical technology sector in which CZM is active is currently experiencing a hog cycle. This phenomenon of stagnating sales while margins are coming under pressure is affecting all companies in the sector and will probably improve again within the next two years. This point gives reason for hope. Customers' warehouses should soon be empty again and then growth could also return.
But as I said, the political situation is worrying and I haven't yet been able to work out how much this is actually affecting the company.
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•@Soprano Well, you are not dependent on Germany, but you are positioned here. Higher taxes or a more stupid Germany will affect CZM. So I think it's easy to tell the truth, if you were to do everything from scratch, you would be stupid to choose Germany as a location. That says it all.
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