What does "a new one" mean? And how do you personally define a super cycle?
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5Mo
@KevinE Thank you for your question. Personally, I see AI as an innovation, even as the starting signal for a new Kondratieff cycle, similar to the computer/Internet revolution in the 1980s, which drastically increased the productivity of companies in the years that followed.
Although AI is not an exaggerated game changer like the mechanical looms were at the end of the 19th century, the 1% annual increase in corporate productivity forecast by banks leads me to believe that, in addition to the USA, emerging markets such as India, Thailand and Vietnam in particular will enjoy a significant growth spurt, which will be reflected in the indices.
TL;DR: AI technologies accelerate global economic growth, ergo line goes up 📈
Although AI is not an exaggerated game changer like the mechanical looms were at the end of the 19th century, the 1% annual increase in corporate productivity forecast by banks leads me to believe that, in addition to the USA, emerging markets such as India, Thailand and Vietnam in particular will enjoy a significant growth spurt, which will be reflected in the indices.
TL;DR: AI technologies accelerate global economic growth, ergo line goes up 📈
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•@xavi808 I think that your considerations are not wrong. However, some markets are currently quite highly valued (USA, for example). The S&P 500 was at around 700 points in 2009 and is now at over 5,500. The market has already priced in quite a lot in advance in my opinion.
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5Mo
@KevinE You are definitely right, a lot is already priced in or anticipated, but I am convinced that the growth in the coming years is well-founded and has its reasons. Artificial intelligence is currently still in its infancy, but as soon as this new technology can be monetized, as Apple, for example, is trying to do with the new iPhone and a new upgrade cycle, I personally see a lot of upside potential.
At the moment, it is the infrastructure manufacturers (NVIDIA, SuperMicro, etc.) who are benefiting massively. In the distant future, I am sure that AI will transform, if not disrupt, individual industries and create new business models and thus new profiteers. I don't know which ones these will be, so for the time being I prefer to focus mainly on a global ETF 🤷🏻♂️
At the moment, it is the infrastructure manufacturers (NVIDIA, SuperMicro, etc.) who are benefiting massively. In the distant future, I am sure that AI will transform, if not disrupt, individual industries and create new business models and thus new profiteers. I don't know which ones these will be, so for the time being I prefer to focus mainly on a global ETF 🤷🏻♂️
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•@xavi808 I am also gradually increasing the proportion of global ETFs
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