Postes
98Good evening everyone,
Here are my favorites for the health sector.
Novo Nordisk $NOVO B (+1,29 %)
Stryker $SYK (+0,22 %)
Intuitive Surgical (P/E ratio 70, P/B ratio 19 🤑) $ISRG (+3,58 %)
Astra Zeneca $AZN (+0,74 %)
Zoetis $ZTS (+0,22 %)
Idexx Lab. $IDXX (+1,84 %)
Amgen (profit margin declining) $AMGN (-0,06 %)
I would be interested to know what your favorites are for a long-term investment?
I would like to use the current "black time" to structure my portfolio better and diversify it more. So far, I have overweighted some sectors rather arbitrarily, while others are completely absent. 😅
In order to achieve a more sound, sectoral diversification, I have looked at two things:
1. the long-term performance of the sectors in the S&P 500
2. the maximum drawdowns of these sectors over different time periods
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The following table shows the average annual returns of the S&P 500 sectors over 10, 20, 30 and 40 years.
It is striking: Some sectors have performed significantly better than others over longer periods of time. Particularly noteworthy are
- Information technology
- Healthcare
- Consumer staples (cyclical consumption)
These sectors achieved long-term average annual returns of over 10% p.a.
By contrast, the following sectors performed less convincingly:
- Energy
- Materials (basic materials)
- Real estate
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Unfortunately, historical drawdown data by sector is limited and not uniformly available. Nevertheless, a clear trend can be identified: The available data shows that defensive sectors tend to have lower drawdowns, while cyclical sectors are more prone to larger declines. So it looks like sectors such as consumer discretionary and healthcare tend to have lower maximum drawdowns, while sectors such as financials and energy have had the sharpest declines.
In the next step, I looked at the current (2024) market weighting of the sectors in the S&P 500, i.e. a market capitalization-weighted allocation as a passive ETF would reflect it:
Information Technology 28%
Healthcare 13 %
Financial services 12 %
Consumer Discretionary 10%
Communication services 8 %
Industry 8 %
Consumer staples 6 %
Energy 4 %
Utilities 3 %
Materials 2.5 %
Real estate 2.5 %
This is the first time I realize how much you have to overweight or underweight a sector in order to have the greatest probability of hypothetically beating the market in a fictitious, ideal scenario by means of sectoral overweighting and underweighting.
For example, only a weighting of well over 28% in information technology would have led to a possible outperformance.
Conversely, only a complete abandonment of the real estate sector could have made a positive contribution. (in retrospect)
Of course, this is a gross oversimplification, as each sector consists of a large number of companies of very different quality. Nevertheless, valuable insights for the strategic portfolio orientation can be derived from this.
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But now I'm at a crossroads.
Option A
I analyze current valuation ratios such as P/E ratios, Shiller P/E ratios or earnings growth per sector and decide on this basis which sectors appear most attractive for the future, i.e. an active, forward-looking approach.
Option B (my favorite):
I take my cue from long-term, historical average returns and risks and use them as a guide for strategic allocation - in other words, a more rule-based approach with a rational derivation.
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My sectoral target portfolio, based on risk-return profile and personal preference, could look like this:
Let's start from the back, the weakest sectors such as energy, real estate, utilities and basic materials have proven to be underperforming and often volatile over the long term. In total, I would therefore like to limit these to a maximum of 10% of my portfolio.
Industry 8 %
Financial services with 9 %
Communication services 10 %
Consumer staples with 13 %,
Healthcare 15 %
Consumer staples 15%
Information technology 20 %
The above weighting aims to create a portfolio that is both growth-oriented and risk-optimized in the long term.
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Conclusion 🤓
With this train of thought, I am pursuing a systematic and long-term approach that takes both opportunities and risks into account. The aim is to create a portfolio that remains stable and profitable in different market phases. Of course, it will not always be easy to implement these weightings perfectly in practice, but this strategy provides a clear direction as a basis.
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Sources 🤯
JP Morgan Asset Management - Guide to the Markets
www.vanguard.com Principles for Investing Success
I waited a long time until I found my way in. $SYK (+0,22 %) Absolute quality company in the medical technology sector
February is over. While there was still snow and temperatures well below zero, I went winter swimming again and used my vacation and weekends for short trips to Dresden, Potsdam and Berlin. Thanks to the Germany Ticket. The investment knew what to do by itself for a while. Time for a look back.
I present the following points for the past month of February 2025:
➡️ SHARES
➡️ ETFS
➡️ DISTRIBUTIONS
➡️ CASHBACK
➡️ AFTER-PURCHASES
➡️ P2P CREDITS
➡️ CRYPTO
➡️ AND OTHER?
➡️ OUTLOOK
➡️ Shares
Things were actually going really well for my shares, but there were some serious headwinds from the other side of the pond: tariffs are coming. And that naturally moved my portfolio too. My giant $AVGO (+4,9 %) was now only up +200%, with a clear downward trend. But that still leaves me cold, because technology stocks are of course heavily overvalued. So it's bound to happen that someone lets the air out. I was pleased because my savings plan was executed at a more favorable price.
$NFLX (+3,47 %) goes down slightly, the $SAP (-0,71 %) remains stable in terms of performance and volume compared to the previous month. With the 2nd place by volume $WMT (+0,44 %) not too much has happened either. So as far as the stocks at the front end of the chain are concerned, February was not really eventful. The same applies to the lower areas.
Whereas last month the banking and financial sector moved ahead in terms of volume, I now notice the $RSG (-1,03 %) and $SYK (+0,22 %) which continue to fight their way to the top of the portfolio. This is exciting, as I have always seen these stocks as good midfield performers, but not candidates for the top positions.
➡️ ETFs
As always, ETFs are doing their thing. What can you say except the typical? Don't rely on the state pension, build your own ETF pension. Anyone who doesn't invest is simply - I can't put it any nicer - stupid and lost. And I think that there have now been enough warnings from every political direction, as well as from various other perspectives and media, that the pension will not be enough. That's why my inner voice tells me that those who don't take care of their old age will only have themselves to blame for their misery and I even think it's unfair if others, who perhaps have little income and are cutting back in order to build up assets, have to be fleeced in order to protect the idle. At least that's what my inner voice tells me. Certainly a controversial opinion, feel free to write yours in the comments.
➡️ Distributions
I was able to collect 19 distributions on 9 payout days in February. I am grateful for this additional income stream. Everyone should build up their additional income this way.
➡️ Cashback
In February there were two reimbursements from the health insurance company, which I treat as "cashback". One was a subsidy for prophylaxis and the other was a payout from the bonus program. As I don't plan either of these as income, there was extra money to distribute. More on this under subsequent purchases.
➡️ Additional purchases
I used the subsidy for the prophylaxis to purchase a one-off savings plan in the $SPYW (+0,55 %) plan. I initially put the payout from the bonus program to one side.
➡️ P2P loans
With my last P2P platform, Mintos, there was no interest or redemption payment. I still want to withdraw everything here. I would even accept a complete write-off to get out of the platform. In any case, the remaining amount on the platform is no longer relevant.
➡️ Crypto
Crypto investors experienced book losses in February. $BTC (-0,91 %) fell from over USD 103,000 to under USD 80,000, and other cryptocurrencies also fell. $ETH (-2,34 %) and other cryptocurrencies.
I remain patient. We are a long way from my exit prices and no improvement is expected in March. We will have to wait and see and possibly add to our position.
➡️ And what else?
I currently see a major threat to the prosperity on which the German welfare state is built. Wokism, cancel culture and, above all, reliance on the state is a huge problem, as is the ever-inflating state. We Germans have far too little awareness of personal responsibility and the wrong mindset.
You are always the average of the people around you. So if you surround yourself with the wrong environment, you will never be able to develop better habits. That's why I think you should always surround yourself with people who are already where you want to be, be it in terms of sport, career, setting up a business or finances.
In February, for example, I met up with people who are also interested in investing and the stock market for a regulars' table in rural Saxony-Anhalt, naturally at the invitation of a Youtuber who I have been following for a long time and who is a frugalist himself. Each of the participants had a different background, different ideas, but the knowledge that you have to do something yourself and the will to get ahead in life united us. The meeting was simply wonderful because I usually only meet people (especially in my day-to-day work) who don't think about the difficult tomorrow. And I'm not just talking about very young people, but also baby boomers. I myself maintain that pensions will no longer be secure for them either. What happens if Germany gets into financial difficulties, for example if government spending continues to rise and income can no longer keep up? The cancel culture certainly means that low-income earners prefer to go on state benefits, or that people who are able to work do not leave the citizen's allowance at all. I don't have a solution for this myself.
But we all know that the state is becoming ever more bloated. On the one hand, it can't prevent this if it has to provide for more and more people (e.g. an increase in the number of baby boomers soon to retire or people who [have to] go into the citizen's allowance). On the other hand, the state doesn't want to prevent this bloating either, as it is deliberately increasing its size through bureaucracy and new official structures. Do we actually need them?
And here comes my assumption. What if this CAP cannot be solved by printing money, as it would become excessive and the welfare state would no longer function? Citizen's income is an entitlement under certain conditions, but having an entitlement does not mean that the entitlement will be enforced. The best example is childcare places. If there aren't enough, you can still be entitled to them. So what happens when social benefits can no longer be financed? No matter how much entitlement there may be. That doesn't help anyone. I deliberately paint a black scenario to get the last person to make their own provisions!
There are 45.6 million people in employment in Germany, 34.8 million of whom are subject to social insurance contributions, 5.3 million of whom are in the public sector. In simplified terms, this means that around 29.5 million keep the economy running through taxes. And thus consequently keep the welfare state alive through social security contributions. Please also remember that 100,000 well-trained skilled workers leave our country every year. Germany has invested in them in the form of general and university education. And entrepreneurs or institutions in the country have invested in them through vocational training, further and advanced training and wages and salaries. I can understand anyone who wants to leave the country and live elsewhere. Instead of condemning these people, we should finally initiate a change in policy so that Germany becomes more attractive again and 100,000 taxpayers don't leave.
As I said, I'm deliberately painting the devil on the wall, but there won't be enough of the 29.5 million taxpayers left to keep things running forever. I haven't even considered the fact that many well-qualified people will retire and won't be replaced by equally well-qualified people. In any case, the risk that the welfare state will cease to function at some point is great enough for me to expect that what we consider normal today will or can no longer be normal at some point. In any case, I have heard the warnings and prefer to build up my own assets and additional income that will cushion me.
So: build up your own assets and income and stay away from government influence/opinion mongering and deceptive promises about a supposedly secure welfare state, as you will end up on your own when things get serious.
➡️ Outlook
Trump's next tariffs are coming into force, sending shockwaves through the markets, and even now, as I write this article in March, my portfolio is noticeably affected. In March, I will receive a reimbursement from my supplementary dental insurance and a bonus from my employer. You can read what I'm going to invest it in in the March review. Until then!
Links:
Social media links can be found in my profile, you can also check out the Instagram version of my review.
Hello to the community ✌️
I am new to this platform and would like to introduce my portfolio to you. I am more or less a newbie on the stock market. During the first corona lockdown, I started to get involved with the stock market. Towards the end of 2021/beginning of 2022, I opened my portfolio. I watched a lot of YouTube videos, read books and looked into finfluencers. Since then, I have been diligently buying and selling shares. Of course, I also had to learn a lot - and after three years of "stock market experience" I'm still paying, but fortunately not as much!
I recently discovered the Getquin platform and have been diligently reading posts and comments here. I'm curious to see what the more experienced among you have to say about my portfolio. I hope to gain a lot of added value from the platform and am therefore looking forward to numerous tips and suggestions for improvement.
Before I became intensively involved with the stock market, I had already saved a certain amount of money. Originally, this money was intended as equity for a condominium. But then came the coronavirus crisis, and during the first lockdown I decided to "spend" it on the stock market instead.
At first, like probably many beginners, I randomly bought whatever YouTubers and finfluencers recommended - without any real knowledge or experience. A good friend told me at the time: "Invest all your money in the $IWDA (+0,93 %)
and just let it run." But I had skepticism, fear and a lot of "But, but, but..." in my head. That's why I initially only invested a portion and later switched to the $VWCE (+0,87 %) to achieve a broader diversification. At the same time, I regularly bought and sold individual shares, etc....
Initially, my focus was strongly on dividends and dividend yields, but since last year I've been increasingly concentrating on growth stocks, so I haven't bought the $VWCE (+0,87 %) not bought any more for the time being. I want to change that over time and weight the ETF even higher
My current portfolio:
It currently consists of 36 positions:
- 1 World ETF
- 35 Individual stocks
I would like to reduce my portfolio to 30 positions or fewer in order to be more focused.
My strategy:
I plan to hold approx. 18-20 shares as growth stocks as growth stocks. The remaining positions should be dividend growth stocks be dividend growth stocks.
The technology/semiconductor sector has been weak recently (apart from Palantir), but I am convinced that it will outperform the market over the next few years. I would therefore like to hold this sector with 30-35% of the portfolio of the portfolio.
$PLTR (+4,47 %) is my largest position, but I have been thinking about liquidating it for a few weeks now because the valuation now seems to me to be beyond good and evil. However, I am actually a friend of letting profits run.
With REITs I'm still undecided as to whether I should liquidate them or keep them for diversification.
$DHR (-0,51 %) Over time, I would like to replace$SYK (+0,22 %) but no suitable opportunity has yet arisen.
$NOVO B (+1,29 %) , $ASML (+1,52 %) , $ALV (-0,2 %) and $MC (+0,17 %) should cover my European block. With these 4 stocks, I am optimistic that things will pick up again in the near future.
Planned portfolio allocation for the next few years:
TECHNOLOGY / SEMICONDUCTORS 30%
HEALTH 20%
FINANCES 15%
CONSUMER GOODS 15%
CONSUMER STAPLES 10%
INDUSTRY 5%
REITS 5%
I am looking forward to your tips and opinion, and maybe you have any stocks to add to my portfolio🫡 and sorry for the full text 😅
Have a nice evening 😬
Today, a new long-runner found its way into my portfolio. Away from the hype stocks, I am looking for steady performers such as $SYK (+0,22 %)
$WMT (+0,44 %)
$WM (-1,22 %)
$MSI (+0,86 %)
$AFL (-0,13 %) ...
The first month of the new year is already over. While the first half of January was characterized by Trump euphoria and rising markets, the second half was much more volatile, particularly due to DeepSeek and its impact on the AI sector.
For me personally, the savings rate was unfortunately somewhat lower due to the issue of house building, as already mentioned at the end of 2024. Currently (and probably also for the coming months) it will therefore only be around €500-700.
I am aware that this is of course still a very high savings rate, but it is significantly lower than the ~€2,000 of recent years.
Also very exciting: In November, I withdrew over €20,000 from my custody account to raise the equity for the bank. Just 2 months later, my custody account is back to the same value of almost €300,000.
But now it's finally time to look at the hard figures:
In total, January was +3,9%. This corresponds to price gains of ~11.000€.
The MSCI World (benchmark) was +3.5% and the S&P500 +2.7%
Winners & losers:
A look at the winners and losers shows an unusual picture in January:
The biggest loser by far is NVIDIA! With price losses of almost €3,000, the emergence of DeepSeek caused substantial losses in the portfolio.
The other losers, on the other hand, are only worth a side note. After NVIDIA, Apple has already lost significantly less with ~€400 losses. The remaining loser stocks then only lost around €200.
On the winners' side at the top with a total of almost €2,000 in price gains is the Meta share. Followed by Bitcoin with €1,500 price gains and 2 other tech stocks: Alphabet with €1,200 and Crowdstrike with €1,000. 5th place goes to Starbucks, also with gains of almost €1,000.
The performance-neutral movements were clearly negative in January, as some of the cash was used to buy the property. The property is of course also an asset, but I would rather focus on liquid assets here.
The performance-neutral movements in relation to my portfolio were ~€600
Dividend:
Buys & Sells:
YouTube:
In mid-January, I uploaded my first video to YouTube. I am particularly proud of a video explaining my dividend strategy. The video has already reached almost 200 views and a playback time of ~10 hours!
Even though I'm still not really sure what exactly I want to do on YouTube, I really enjoy editing videos and talking about shares.
That's why I created my January portfolio update as a video for the first time. Of course I would love to hear your feedback!
Target 2025
Building a house makes it particularly difficult to formulate a goal this year.
A certain savings rate? Difficult if additional costs are suddenly added
A certain deposit value? Also difficult, as I can't really back this up with my savings rate this year.
Nevertheless, I would formulate the following goal for this year:
Current portfolio balance is €300,000. I would estimate additional investments at ~€15,000. With an average market return of ~7%, that would be price gains of ~€21,000.
This would put my portfolio at €330,000 to €340,000 at the end of 2025.
-> I would therefore aim for a portfolio value of well over €300,000, so that a 2% fluctuation does not lead directly back below €300k.
The world's population is getting older and older, an irreversible demographic change with considerable economic consequences.
This article is intended to provide investment ideas and impetus. The stocks mentioned do not, of course, constitute investment advice, but merely serve as examples of potential beneficiaries of demographic change. Historical developments are no guarantee of future returns.
The main source is the short analysis "How to invest as the global population ages" by Goldman Sachs [1], which, however, does not name any specific stocks.
I have also added additional sources and charts.
__________
🌍 Demographic change: growth and ageing of the world's population
The world's population will grow to almost 10 billion people by 2050. But it is not just the number of people that is increasing, their age structure is also changing dramatically. [2]
Increase in the older population:
Source: [2]
Regional differences:
Europe & North America have the oldest populations & remain the most affected demographically.
Latin America, the Caribbean & Asia: The proportion of over-60s will more than double between 2015 and 2050, reaching around 25 %.
Africa remains the youngest region: in 2015, there were 21 countries worldwide with a birth rate of 5 children per woman, 19 of which were in Africa. However, it should be noted that current statistics from 2024 show that the birth rate per woman in Africa was already just 4.07 in 2023 and could fall to 2.79 by 2050. [3]
While industrialized countries are struggling with an ageing society, Africa remains the most dynamic and youngest region in the world. This development can also have an economic impact and open up new investment opportunities. [2]
Goldman Sachs also comments in the article with similar figures, according to which the global population is expected to increase by around 20% by 2050 and senior citizens will make up a disproportionate share. The number of people over the age of 65 is expected to double from 800 million to 1.6 billion during this period. [1]
In view of this demographic development, there are opportunities to benefit from precisely this trend. Opportunities lie in targeted investments in sectors that could benefit from the growing proportion of older people.
🚑 Healthcare: A growing market worth billions
Facts:
Possible profiteers:
Medical technology
Pharmaceuticals
🏡 Senior Living & Care: Bottlenecks in nursing homes worldwide
Facts:
The UK has a shortfall of over 30,000 senior units by 2028. [1]
In Germany, France and Italy there is a shortage of nursing home places due to the ageing population. [1]
In the US, only 2% of people over 65 live in nursing homes, leading to an increasing demand for home care and telemedicine. [1]
Potential beneficiaries:
Care providers
Homecare
Telemedicine
Anti-Aging
🚢 Leisure & consumption: The new "silver economy"
The following chart shows the distribution of wealth in Germany depending on the age of the main income earner. [4]
It is clear that older people tend to have higher wealth than younger age groups. This is reflected in the significantly higher values for the percentiles for age groups aged 50 and over. In particular, the groups aged between 50 and 74 have the highest assets.
The trends are also similar internationally:
This observation underlines the economic importance of the older generations and their central role in wealth distribution and consumer spending.
Possible beneficiaries:
Luxury
Cruise (Over 60s book a third of all cruises worldwide [1])
Motorhome manufacturers/ recreational vehicles (47% of motorhome users are over 55 years old, In the UK, two thirds of over 55s have a motorcycle license, which may indicate a growing market for motorcycles and accessories. [1])
🤖 Technology & automation: solution to the labor shortage
Facts:
The labor shortage caused by an aging society is becoming a global challenge. Automation, AI and robotics could help close the skills gap. [1]
Profiteers:
🧠 Conclusion:
Demographic change offers long-term investment opportunities. Early investment in the right sectors can benefit from rising spending on health, care, leisure and technology.
I myself am still looking for one or two individual investments and am a little annoyed that I didn't get into Hims & Hers earlier, although I have been on the verge of doing so several times. Apart from the luxury segment with LVMH, the portfolio also includes Siemens as a conglomerate in the field of automation.
Do you explicitly take demographic change into account in your investments, e.g. in the form of individual shares?
Which shares do you have in your portfolio or do you still see them as an opportunity?
Thanks for reading!
_________
Sources:
[1] https://www.goldmansachs.com/insights/articles/how-to-invest-as-the-global-population-ages
[2] https://www.bpb.de/kurz-knapp/zahlen-und-fakten/globalisierung/52811/demografischer-wandel/
[4]
https://www.iwd.de/artikel/mit-dem-alter-waechst-das-vermoegen-489710/
Humanoids
$TSLA (+0,45 %)
Tesla
$XPEV (+0,41 %)
Xpeng
$1810 (+0,57 %)
Xiaomi
$HYUD
Hyundai
Logistics
$SERV
Serve Robotics
$AMZN (+1,62 %)
Amazon
$SYM
Symbotic
$AUTO (-26,11 %)
AutoStore
Robotics Software
$NVDA (+2,58 %)
NVIDIA
$PTC (+2,22 %)
PTC
Sensors
$OUST
Ouster
Healthcare Robotics
$ISRG (+3,58 %)
Intuitive Surgical
$SYK (+0,22 %)
Stryker
$MDT (+0,02 %)
Medtronic
$ARAY (+1,11 %)
Accuray
Industrial Robotics
$HON (+1,37 %)
Honeywell
$TER (+5,17 %)
Teradyne
$LECO (+2,81 %)
Lincoln Electric
Robotics Automation
$ROK (+2,5 %)
Rockwell Automation
$ABBN (+0,14 %)
ABB
$ZBRA (+4,13 %)
Zebra Technologies
$CGNX (+3,85 %)
Cognex
$PATH (+3,66 %)
UiPath
$PEGA (+1,92 %)
Pegasystems
Defense Robotics
$AVAV (+0,33 %)
AeroVironment
$KTOS (+2,68 %)
Kratos
$LMT (+0,37 %)
Lockheed Martin
$NOC (-2,65 %)
Northrop Grumman
$BA (+1,58 %)
Boeing
$GD (+0,66 %)
General Dynamics
Consumer & B2B Robotics
$IRBT (+8,04 %)
iRobot
$1810 (+0,57 %)
Xiaomi
$RR
RichTech Robotics
Specialized Robotics
$OII (+2,29 %)
Oceaneering
$FARO (+14,53 %)
FARO Technologies
Stryker wants to buy Inari Medical for 4.9 billion dollars
The US medical technology provider Stryker wants to take over Inari Medical, another US-based company specializing in the treatment of vascular diseases. Is it currently worth buying Stryker shares?
The boards of Stryker and Inari have already agreed to the takeover, and Stryker will now make a cash offer of 80 dollars per Inari share. Inari's share price stood at 65 dollars at the close of trading on the US Nasdaq stock exchange yesterday evening. In total, Stryker expects the purchase to cost around 4.9 billion dollars.
Inari manufactures devices for the treatment of venous thromboembolism (VTE), a condition in which blood clots in the legs and in some cases can travel to the lungs. In the USA alone, up to 900,000 people are affected by VTE. The acquisition expands Stryker's offering in the treatment of peripheral vascular disease. The Group expects the acquisition to be completed in the first quarter of this year.
Hello everyone,
I have been saving for almost three years now with the $XDWD (+1,06 %) and have a portfolio of just under 17k.
In the coming year, I would like to invest a large sum x in individual shares with a view to the long term.
The shares will be held until I retire and will not be used to speculate on short-term gains.
I have selected the following shares:
The shares are not spectacular, but are market leaders and big names in their sector. However, this is of course no guarantee of a promising future.
What do you think of these shares, even if they may seem boring?
