What's going on at $HUBS (-2,22 %) going on? The figures were good, or did I miss something?
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9The investment bank sees these stocks as the big beneficiaries of AI adaptation
$AAPL (+4,37 %) Apple, Inc. (ISIN: US0378331005)
$ADBE (+1,39 %) Adobe Inc (ISIN: US00724F1012)
$AES (+2,35 %) AES Corp (ISIN: US00130H1059)
$AMZN (-0,2 %) Amazon.com Inc (ISIN: US0231)
$APP (+5,24 %) AppLovin Corp (ISIN: US03831W1080)
$AXON (-2,56 %) Axon Enterprise, Inc. (ISIN: US05464C1018)
$BE (+0,35 %) Bloom Energy Corp. (ISIN: US09
$CRM (-0,11 %) Salesforce.com, Inc. (ISIN: US79466L3024)
$GOOGL (+2,95 %) Alphabet Inc (Class A) (ISIN: US02079K3059)
$GTLS (-1,15 %) Chart Industries, Inc. (ISIN: US16115Q3083)
$HUBS (-2,22 %) HubSpot Inc (ISIN: US4435731009)
$JCI (+1,69 %) Johnson Controls International plc (ISIN: IE00BY7QL619)
$NEE (-0,11 %) NextEra Energy, Inc (ISIN: US65339F1012)
$NVDA (+1,02 %) NVIDIA Corp (ISIN: US67066G1040)
$SLB (+0,09 %) Schlumberger N.V. (ISIN: AN8068571086)
$SPGI (-0,19 %) S&P Global Inc (ISIN: US78409V1044)
$TSLA (+2,64 %) Tesla Inc (ISIN: US88160R1
$TT (+0,68 %) Trane Technologies PLC (ISIN: IE00BK9ZQ967)
$$VRTX (-2,91 %) Vertex Pharmaceuticals Inc (ISIN: US92532F1003)
$VERTEX (-0,02 %) Vertex, Inc (ISIN: US92538J1060)
$VST (-1,22 %) Vistra Corp (ISIN: US92840M1027)
$WIX (-8,32 %) Wix.com Ltd (ISIN: IL0011301780)
Morgan Stanley expects these companies to benefit greatly from the global trend towards AI integration, whether through leading chips such as NVIDIA, cloud and software solutions such as Amazon, Alphabet or Salesforce, or specialized applications in energy, industry and biotechnology. With tech giants expected to invest almost 400 billion US dollars by 2026, demand in many of these segments could explode. But while the list reads impressively, there is still the intriguing question of who will ultimately benefit not only from the hype, but also from the sustainable use of this technology.
Source: Boerse-Online (Morgan Stanley report on AI-related stocks)

Lynx analysis
HubSpot share: Chart from 16.05.2025, price: USD 664 - symbol: HUBS | Source: TWS
If a breakout above USD 685 now succeeds, a procyclical uptrend with a possible Kaufsignalwith a possible Kursziel at USD 750.
For anti-cyclical investors, on the other hand, the area between the Aufwärtstrendnear 535 and the Unterstützung at USD 568 could be interesting.
Impressive figures
However, Hubspot not only shines with words, but also with figures.
Over the last ten years, turnover has multiplied from USD 182 million to USD 2.63 billion.
In the 2017 financial year, the company made the leap to profitability. Since then, earnings have increased from USD 0.25 to USD 8.12 per share.
The number of shares outstanding Aktien has risen from 33 to 51 million shares during this time, but the dilution of the share base has decreased significantly in recent years.
Share-based payments are now largely compensated for by buybacks.
Outlook and valuation
In the first quarter of the current financial year, the company was able to seamlessly continue its strong performance.
At USD 1.84 per share, earnings were well above expectations of USD 1.74. With sales of USD 714.1 million, the company also exceeded analysts' estimates of USD 698 million.
For the year as a whole, this corresponds to a 16% increase in sales and a 5% rise in profit.
However, free cash flow climbed by 18% to USD 122.3 million, which corresponds to USD 2.30 per share. The reported profit is therefore more of an understatement.
As HubSpot has no significant debt and has cash reserves of just over USD 2.0 billion, the company decided on May 6 to buy back shares with a volume of USD 500 million and a term of 12 months.
This should be sufficient to compensate for the share-based payments and bring about a reduction in the number of shares for the first time.
According to current forecasts, earnings this year should rise by 15% to USD 9.34 and FCF to USD 10.92 per share.
HubSpot is therefore definitely not a bargain. In return, investors get a highly profitable, fast-growing and scalable business with high customer loyalty.

HubSpot Q1'25 Earnings Highlights
🔹 Revenue: $714.1M (Est. $699.88M) 🟢; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Adj. EPS: $1.78 (Est. $1.77) 🟢
🔹 Avg. Subscription Revenue per Customer: $11,038; DOWN -4% YoY
Guidance
🔹 Q2 Revenue: $738M–$740M (Est. $725.4M) 🟢
🔹 Q2 EPS: $2.10–$2.12 (Est. $2.13) 🔴
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $3.036B–$3.044B (Est. $2.997B) 🟢
🔹 FY25 EPS: $9.29–$9.37 (Est. $9.18) 🟢
Other Key Metrics:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $698.7M; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Prof. Services & Other Revenue: $15.4M; UP +13% YoY
🔹 Adj. Operating Income: $100.3M
🔹 Adj. Operating Margin: 14.0%
🔹 Free Cash Flow: $122.3M; UP +18% YoY
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $161.6M
🔹 Calculated Billings: $766.8M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Customer Count: 258,258; UP +19% YoY
🔹 Cash + Investments: $2.2B
Strategic & Business Highlights
🔸 Authorized $500M share repurchase program (12-month window)
🔸 AI-first strategy driving engagement — Customer Agent cited as standout success
🔸 Positioning as platform of choice amid tech stack consolidation trends
CEO Yamini Rangan Commentary
🔸 “We had a solid start to 2025, with continued revenue growth and customer expansion.”
🔸 “Our AI-first strategy is working—Customer Agent is delivering strong results.”
🔸 “HubSpot is well-positioned to drive long-term durable growth through innovation and platform consolidation.”
HubSpot Q4'24 Earnings Highlights
🔹 EPS (Non-GAAP): $2.32 (Est. $2.19) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $703.2M (Est. $673.65M) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
Guidance:
🔹 Q1'25 EPS (Non-GAAP): $1.74-$1.76 (Est. $2.01) 🔴
🔹 Q1'25 Revenue: $697M-$699M (Est. $705.6M) 🔴
🔹 FY25 EPS (Non-GAAP): $9.11-$9.19 (Est. $9.13) 🟡
🔹 FY25 Revenue: $2.985B-$2.995B (Est. $2.997B) 🟡
Segment Performance:
🔹 Subscription Revenue: $687.3M (Est. $659.43M) 🟢; UP +21% YoY
🔹 Professional Services Revenue: $15.9M (Est. $14.27M) 🟢; UP +36% YoY
Key Metrics:
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 18.9% (vs. 17.1% YoY) 🟢
🔹 Calculated Billings: $767.6M; UP +16% YoY
🔹 Average Subscription Revenue Per Customer: $11,312; DOWN -0.5% YoY
🔹 Customers: 247,939; UP +21% YoY
Cash Flow and Balance Sheet:
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $194.1M; UP +86% YoY
🔹 Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow: $163.0M; UP +96% YoY
🔹 Cash, Cash Equivalents, and Investments: $2.2B
Management Commentary:
🔸 CEO Yamini Rangan: "2024 was a transformative year as we embedded AI across our platform, driving value for customers. Heading into 2025, we are focused on cementing HubSpot as the leading AI-first customer platform for scaling companies."
$HUBS (-2,22 %) | HubSpot Q3 Earnings Highlights:
🔹 EPS (Non-GAAP): $2.18 (Est. $1.91) 🟢
🔹 Revenue: $669.7M (Est. $646.95M) 🟢; UP +20% YoY
Q4 2024 Guidance
🔹 Revenue: $672M - $674M (Est. $669.5M) 🟢
🔹 Non-GAAP EPS: $2.18 - $2.20 (Est. $2.18) 🟡
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $128M - $129M
Q3 Segments Revenue:
🔹 Subscription: $654.7M; UP +20% YoY
🔹 Professional Services & Other: $15.0M; UP +28% YoY
Q3 Customer Metrics
🔹 Total Customers: 238,128; UP +23% YoY
🔹 Average Subscription Revenue per Customer: $11,235; DOWN -2% YoY
Q3 Balance Sheet
🔹 Cash & Investments: $2.1B as of September 30, 2024
Q3 Operating Metrics
🔹 GAAP Operating Margin: -1.4%, improved from -3.3% in Q3 2023
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Margin: 18.7%, up from 16.5% in Q3 2023
🔹 Non-GAAP Operating Income: $125.2M, UP from $92.1M in Q3 2023
🔹 Operating Cash Flow: $159.5M vs. $89.0M in Q3 2023
🔹 Non-GAAP Free Cash Flow: $129.2M vs. $64.7M in Q3 2023
CEO Commentary
🔸 "Q3 was another strong quarter of revenue growth, operating profit growth, and customer growth. Our INBOUND conference showcased over 200 new innovations, including AI-powered features like Breeze and Breeze Intelligence. With AI embedded across our platform, we’re helping SMBs grow and driving durable growth for HubSpot." – Yamini Rangan, CEO
So, finally sorted out a lot of small shit and beginner sins.
At 150€ still goes $PG (+0,17 %) (hopefully), at 40€ $DTG (+2,3 %) and at 60€ $TTE (+1,07 %)
The rest remains for now.
But from now on I'm actively investing only in my 4 ETFs ($VWCE (+0,81 %)
$VHYL (+0,72 %)
$ISPA (+0,54 %) and $ZPRG (-0,11 %) ) and look for attractive individual stocks where I think there is some outperformance (e.g. $HUBS (-2,22 %) ).
In addition, I have also read up on how to evaluate shares and companies "best" and would like to invest more time in the topic and finance.
My real message behind this post should therefore be:
Don't be ashamed of your beginner mistakes, just correct them when it fits. 😄
In the long run, everything is in it!
With this in mind: Happy Father's Day to all dads!
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